Colder Weather Outlook Sees NATGAS Climb
US natural gas prices (NATGAS) trade around 2.5% higher today. NATGAS has already jumped more than 10% off the Thursday low. New set of weather forecasts for the United States can be named as a reason behind improved sentiment towards natural gas this week. As one can see on the image below, a new set of forecasts (issued on April 10, 2023) shows that temperatures in many US states, including the key Midwest heating region, are expected to be below-average in the next 8-14 day period. Above-average temperatures are only expected to hold in the southern states while forecasts issued on April 3, 2023 were for above-average temperatures in almost all across the United States.
Taking a look at NATGAS chart at H1 interval, we can see that the price climbed to and tested $2.24 per MMBTu resistance zone today, marked with previous price reactions and a 23.6% retracement of the downward impulse launched in early-March 2023. However, the first attempt to break above it turned out to be a failure.
Weather outlook for the United States grew colder over the past week (April 3 forecast – left, April 10 forecast – right). Source: Bloomberg