Dow Jones soars 600 points as NFP data calms recession fears, weekly gains top 3%

• April Nonfarm Payrolls beat consensus at 177K; Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%, easing recession concerns.
• Trump pressures Fed to cut rates despite upbeat data; CBOT shows 88 bps of easing priced in.
• Apple and Amazon fall on China sales miss and cloud growth slowdown despite beating EPS forecasts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied over 600 points, or over 1.65%, on Friday following a solid US jobs report that brushed aside fears that the largest economy in the world is tied into a recession. The Dow is set to end the week with gains of over 3% and, at the time of writing, hovers past the 41,300 mark after rebounding off the daily low of 40,658.

DJIA rallies past 41,300 as solid NFP data boosts sentiment, even as Fed rate cut expectations hold steady

US Nonfarm Payrolls in April increased by 177K, down from the downwardly revised number of 185K in March, but exceeding estimates of 130K. Earlier in the week, a dismal ADP National Employment Change report suggested that companies were hiring fewer people than the NFP revealed.

Also, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, aligned with forecasts, which might prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing policy.

Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris, said, “These good numbers are not likely to fuel inflation, but this is no game changer for the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell.”

US President Donald Trump took advantage of the good figures and slammed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a post on his Truth Social network, demanding the Fed lower interest rates.

US Factory Orders in March rose by 4.3% MoM, up from 0.5% the previous month but slightly below the 4.5% foreseen.

Stocks related news

In the meantime, Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) shares are down 3.5% and 1%,  respectively, with the former hit by a miss in sales in China and concern over tariffs. Apple revealed its earnings for Q1 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) coming at $1.65, above estimates of $1.62, and revenue of $95.36 billion, up from the $94.53 billion expected.

Amazon’s stock edged down as cloud revenue growth disappointed. In its earnings report for Q1 2025, EPS rose to $1.59, up from the $1.38 forecast, and revenue increased by $155.7 billion above forecasts of $154.88. 

Fed expected to cut rates

Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows the swaps market expects 88 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, as revealed by the December 2025 fed funds rate futures contract.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones remains downwardly biased, though traders are testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 41,271. A daily close above the latter could extend the recovery past the 42,000 figure, with bulls targeting the 200-day SMA at 42,281.

Conversely, if the Dow tumbles below 41,000, the first support would be the 40,000 mark ahead of the 20-day SMA of 39,705. Once cleared the next support would be the April 23 low of 39,486, ahead of the April 22 high of 39,271 that would close the gap witnessed between April 22 and 23.