October 31, 2025
- The Euro remains vulnerable, with 1.1540 lows on the bears’ focus.
- Eurozone inflation moderated in October, in line with market expectations.
- A mild risk aversion and a hawkish Fed are underpinning the US Dollar’s rally.
EUR/USD is trading practically flat on Friday, changing hands at 1.1570 at the time of writing, unable to take a significant distance from te two-month lows in the area of 1.1540, The pair remains on its back foot with teh USD drawing support from the dismal market moopd and dwindling hopes thst the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates again in December, while Eurozone Inflation data has failed to cheer investors.
Eurozone’s preliminary Harmonized Prices for Consumer Inflation (HICP) offered no surprises and revealed that headline inflation ticked up to 0.2% from the previous 0.1% with the year-on-year rate easing to 2.1% from September’s 2.2% reading. The core inflation accelerated at a 0.3% pace in October, from 0.1% in September, and remained steady, at 2.4%, from October last year.
The US Dollar has been drawing support by a “hawkish cut” by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday – which prompted investors to pare back hopes of another cut in December – and a deal between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to maintain the trade truce between the world’s two major economies.
In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank met expectations and left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2%. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the bank is “in a good place” and conveyed a fairly optimistic message, dismissing the possibility of further rate cuts in the near term. The Euro ticked up after the event, but upside attempts remain limited so far.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.28% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.20% | 0.23% | 0.34% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | -0.14% | -0.10% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.19% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.26% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.20% | -0.06% | -0.13% | 0.01% | 0.13% | -0.16% | |
| AUD | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.01% | 0.11% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.34% | -0.19% | -0.26% | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.16% | 0.18% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: The Dollar remains firm in cautious markets
- The US Dollar remains bid on Friday, buoyed by a combination of dwindling hopes of a December rate cut, the positive impact of the Sino-US trade deal, and a mild risk aversion following declines in Wall Street on Thursday as earnings figures from Meta and Microsoft sparked fresh concerns about AI valuations and triggered sharp losses in tech stocks.
- The European Central Bank kept its Rate on the Deposit Facility at 2% for the third consecutive meeting on Thursday, and Christine Lagarde conveyed a fairly optimistic message, showing confidence about economic growth, although warning about the high uncertainty surrounding inflation.
- On Friday, ECB Governing Council members Martin Kocher, Kazakhs, and Muller have endorsed President Lagarde’s views, highlighting a gradual improvement of the economic projections and showing no urge to cut rates further in the near term. Their impact on the Euro, however, has been muted.
- In the US, the hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have sent US Treasury yields surging, providing additional support to the US Dollar. The yield of the benchmark 10-year note has rallied more than 30 basis points since Wednesday to hit three-week highs at 4.10%
- The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that expectations for a further rate cut in December have dropped to a 64.8% chance from 91% ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy decision.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD hovers above a key support at 1.1540
The EUR/USD has broken the monthly triangle pattern, and the feeble recovery attempt seen after the ECB’s monetary policy decision has been capped below a previous support area at 1.1580, confirming the pair’s bearish bias. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is low but still above oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence reflects a strong negative momentum.
Bears are now focusing on the key support area around 1.1545 (October 9 and 14 lows). Below here, the 1.1500 round level is a plausible target ahead of the measured target of the triangle pattern at the 1.1450 area.
To the upside, the mentioned 1.1580 area – which held losses on October 22, 23, and 28 – is acting now as resistance. Further up, the reverse trendline, now around 1.1615, and Thursday’s high near 1.1635 are likely to challenge bulls ahead of the October 28 and 29 highs in the area of 1.1670.
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