Mid-Morning Market Update

• Election results in Canada — Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won the elections in Canada, but will only form a minority government. The close race initially strengthened the Canadian dollar (CAD). However, once it became clear that Carney would not secure a majority, the CAD began to fall.
• At present, the Liberals have been elected in 164 electoral districts, followed by the Conservatives with 147 seats, with votes still being counted.
• Carney takes office at a time when Canada is in the midst of a trade war with the USA, and the BoC has recently paused interest rate cuts. Carney’s leadership begins at a critical moment for Canada.
• Trump’s aggressive tariffs have shifted the focus of Canada’s elections to issues of sovereignty and anti-American sentiment. Mark Carney, replacing Justin Trudeau, campaigned under the slogan of protecting Canada’s economic independence. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on 60 billion dollars’ worth of US goods reflect heightened tensions. Trade relations will remain a key issue for Carney’s government.
• Trump plans to pull back from imposing new tariffs on already existing car imports and to ease duties on car parts manufactured in the USA. He is expected to announce these changes during a rally near Detroit later today.
• Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns that the shift away from a US-centric trade and financial system has already begun and will be hard to stop. Global supply chains and investment flows are being reshaped in response to tariff wars. Dalio argues that the role of the USA as a global buyer and borrower is becoming unsustainable. Deglobalization is accelerating, carrying serious consequences for economies and investors.
• The United Kingdom and the European Union are preparing to sign a formal declaration promoting “free and open trade,” directly opposing Trump’s protectionist policies. The draft emphasizes building a “new strategic partnership” between London and Brussels. This move suggests closer economic ties post-Brexit. It is a significant geopolitical response to the tariff threats from the USA.

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