US Nonfarm Payrolls Seen at 110K in June

US nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 110K in June 2025, marking the smallest increase in four months and a slowdown from May’s gain of 139K. The unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, from 4.2%, while wage growth likely eased to 0.3% from 0.4%. Hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector may have slowed, reflecting softer consumer spending on tourism and travel-related services. In contrast, the healthcare sector likely remained a key driver of job growth. Overall, the report is expected to point to a continued cooling in the labor market, as uncertainty surrounding tariffs, trade, and immigration policies leads many employers to adopt a more cautious hiring stance. Nonetheless, the data would continue to underscore a fundamentally resilient labor market, with monthly payroll gains in the 100K-170K range, sufficient to keep pace with growth in the working-age population.