- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at 3.85 %, defying consensus expectations for a 25 bp cut and signalling it will reassess policy after the 30 July quarterly CPI.
- Governor Michele Bullock defended the Bank’s “cautious, gradual” approach, arguing its communication is ample and that the only debate on the Board is timing, not direction, of easing.
- AUDUSD popped toward 0.6550 on the decision, but bulls hesitated as traders recognised the move is a delay, not a cancellation, of the easing cycle; the pair remains dependent on forthcoming inflation data and global risk sentiment.
The council voted 6–3 to keep interest rates unchanged, explaining that with slowing inflation and the earlier 50 bp cuts, it is reasonable to pause and wait for more data. Policymakers emphasized that inflation risks are now “more balanced,” the labor market remains tight, but global trade uncertainty calls for patience.
At the post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock rejected claims of unclear RBA messaging. She asserted that the Bank provides “sufficient information,” and any confusion stems from market misinterpretations rather than a lack of communication. She downplayed the earlier discussion of a possible larger 50-basis-point cut considered in May, calling it an “alternative” that was quickly dismissed. She stressed that the current pause simply allows time to confirm the inflation trend. She also noted that monthly CPI readings are volatile, and the quarterly July print will be decisive for the August decision.
The Australian dollar initially strengthened as investors closed short positions after the surprise decision, but the rally stalled below technical resistance near 0.6550 and the upper bound of the daily range. So far, price action suggests the market views today’s decision as a tactical pause rather than a strategic shift.
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
