Bitcoin rises over 1% today, breaking above $117,000, driven by expectations of a more dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance. The dollar has weakened, and markets are pricing in another 50 bps of rate cuts this year along with further easing next year. Trump’s nominee, Miran, suggested that rates should fall to 3% this year, offering some guidance as to what U.S. monetary policy could look like in the coming year.
- This implies that global money supply (M2) will likely increase, while assets negatively correlated with the dollar — including Bitcoin — should benefit. It’s also one of the reasons why the market is not worried about a looming “end of the crypto bull run,” which, judging by previous cycles, would normally be expected in late autumn this year.
- Dovish signals from the Fed, combined with a gradually (rather than sharply) weakening labor market, may support inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have recently seen renewed institutional interest. On the other hand, any declines on Wall Street could once again put Bitcoin under pressure. If U.S. labor market data were to point to a sharp and sudden slowdown, we could see at least a short-term “risk-off” reaction across markets, driven by reduced odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy.
Bitcoin (D1 chart)
Looking at the chart, we can see that the price has been climbing slowly in recent days, holding above the 50-day EMA (orange line). The base case scenario for now is a test of the $120,000 area, where heavier supply previously emerged.
Source: xStation5
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
