Futures on oil (OIL) rise today more than 2%, driven by potential disruptions from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and prolonged Ukraine war with Russia, which may help the market and prices to stabilize despite high inventories and OPEC production level.
Oil market highlights
- U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week ending September 5, 2025, reaching 424.6 million barrels, despite analysts expecting a drawdown.
- Stockpiles remain 3% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories are 9% below average and gasoline stocks are near normal levels.
- Gasoline inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels, and distillates rose sharply by 4.7 million barrels, reversing earlier declines.
- Total petroleum products supplied averaged 20.9 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up 2% year-over-year, signaling steady demand.
- US Refinery utilization fell to 91.3% from 93.1%, with crude inputs averaging 16.2 million barrels per day, contributing to inventory buildup.
- U.S. crude imports increased by 420,000 barrels per day to 6.8 million, while exports dropped by 280,000 barrels per day, further boosting domestic supply.
- Domestic crude production stayed near record highs at 13.4 million barrels per day, adding to overall supply pressures.
- The build reflects a combination of strong production, higher imports, lower refinery activity, and reduced exports, though inventories remain within historical ranges.
Oil EIA Report highlights
World oil demand in 2025 is expected to rise by 740 kb/d year-on-year, with OECD showing resilience early in the year but forecasted to contract later, leaving overall demand flat.
- Global supply hit a record 106.9 mb/d in August as OPEC+ unwound cuts and non-OPEC+ output stayed near highs; production is projected to grow by 2.7 mb/d in 2025 and 2.1 mb/d in 2026.
- Refinery crude throughputs reached a record 85.1 mb/d in August but are set to fall by 3.5 mb/d through October due to seasonal maintenance.
- Global oil stocks rose 26.5 mb in July, with cumulative gains of 187 mb since the start of 2025, yet inventories remain 67 mb below the five-year average.
- Sanctions on Russia and Iran have modestly impacted flows so far, though the EU’s 2026 refined product ban could disrupt trade further.
- OPEC+ agreed on September 7 to unwind its second tranche of supply cuts, targeting 137 kb/d in October, though actual increases lag behind targets.
- Non-OPEC+ producers (US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, Argentina) continue strong growth, matching OPEC+ contributions in 2025–2026.
- Global inventories are forecast to rise by 2.5 mb/d on average in 2H25 as supply outpaces demand, though geopolitical risks could shift balances.
OIL (D1)
Oil prices are rising today, but fall slightly after reaching $64, where we can see the first resistance zone, supported by price action patterns.
Source: xStation5
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