The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.4 in June 2025, up from 48.3 in May—which had marked the steepest contraction since September 2022—and beating market forecasts of 49. The upturn came as output grew at the fastest pace since last November, driven by a fresh increase in new orders amid improved trade conditions and promotional activities.
However, external demand remained muted, with new export orders falling for the third consecutive month, albeit at a noticeably softer pace than in May, due to additional US tariffs. Employment continued to decline, while a slight accumulation of backlogged orders was recorded for the first time in three months. On the price front, input costs fell for the fourth straight month, driven by lower material prices. Output prices also declined, marking the seventh consecutive monthly drop and the steepest fall in five months. Looking ahead, business sentiment weakened and remained below the series’ long-run average.
