China Trade Surplus Below Forecasts

China’s trade surplus came in at USD 98.24 billion in July 2025, below market expectations of USD 105 billion, though higher than the USD 85.27 billion recorded in the same month a year earlier, as exports continued to outpace imports. Exports rose 7.2% year-on-year, beating forecasts of a 5.4% increase and accelerating from 5.8% growth in June, supported by a temporary easing of tariff pressures and raising hopes of a possible extension of the US–China trade truce. Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly increased by 4.1%, defying expectations of a 1.0% decline and building on a 1.1% gain in June. China’s trade surplus with the US declined to USD 23.74 billion in July, down from USD 26.57 billion in June, as both exports and imports with the US declined, falling 21.7% and 18.9%, respectively. For the first seven months of 2025, China recorded a total trade surplus of USD 683.5 billion, with exports up 6.1% year-on-year, while imports declined by 2.7% compared to the same period in 2024.