Newcastle coal futures rose to $111 per tonne in July, marking a prolonged rebound from the four-year low of $93.7 in late April amid signs of slight traction in demand. Trade data showed that seaborne imports of thermal coal from major consumers India and China picked up to a five-month high in May.
This aligned with China’s increase in coal-powered capacity in the first quarter and the state planner’s call to refill stockpiles. Still, front-month Newcastle contracts remained over 15% down annually as the market remained relatively oversupplied. Chinese fossil-fuel power output dropped by 4.7% annually in the first quarter amid lower power demand and strong supply from renewable energy sources. Domestic production in China rose 4% from the previous year in May, aligned with the earlier signal that it plans to boost output by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons this year after the record amount of output in 2024.
