Futures on Arabica coffee on ICE (COFFEE) drop almost 5% today amid Brazil weather change, falling from local high.
- Brazil forecasts point to more rain next week, easing dryness fears.
- But NOAA warns of a 71% chance of La Niña (Oct–Dec) → risk of drought and damage to the 2026/27 crop.
- Brazil harvest revisions (HedgePoint):
- Total 2025/26 crop: 64.7M bags (+0.7% YoY).
- Arabica: cut to 37.7M bags (-13.3% YoY, down from 39.6M est.).
- Robusta: lifted to 27M bags (+30% YoY).
- Regional contrasts:
- Arabica heartlands (Minas Gerais, São Paulo): below-average rainfall in key stages hurt yields and quality.
- Robusta regions (Espírito Santo, Bahia): favorable weather + grower investment → stronger-than-expected yields.
- Longer-term outlook:
- Arabica 2026/27: still uncertain; April rains hurt current crop but improved tree health for the next cycle.
- Robusta 2026/27: early flowering (since August) shows positive signs so far.
COFFE (D1 interval)
Source: xStation5
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