September arabica coffee (KCU25) on Thursday closed down -1.60 (-0.55%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) closed up +25 (+0.69).
Coffee prices on Thursday closed mixed and consolidated just above the recent lows. Sep arabica coffee on Wednesday fell to a contract low, and the July (N25) nearest-futures contract dropped to a 7.5-month low. Sep robusta prices last week fell to a new 1.25-year low.
The advancing coffee harvest in Brazil is weighing on coffee prices. Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Wednesday that its members reported the coffee harvest was 31% complete as of June 27, compared with 42% completed at the same time last year. Additionally, forecasts for dry conditions over the next five days in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions are expected to boost the harvest further. Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter of coffee.
Also, Safras & Mercado recently reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s comparable level of 37% but in line with the 5-year average of 35%. The breakdown showed that 49% of the robusta harvest and 26% of the arabica harvest were complete as of June 11. Brazil’s arabica harvest has been slowed by heavy rain in some areas.
Arabica coffee is also under pressure as abundant rainfall in Brazil has eased dryness concerns and is positive for the country’s coffee crops. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 5 mm of rain during the week ended June 28, which is 714% of the historical average.
Coffee prices have retreated over the past two months as the outlook for abundant coffee supplies undercut prices. Last Wednesday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.
Robusta coffee prices have support as ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories declined to a 6-week low of 5,108 lots last Thursday, although inventories have since rebounded higher to 5,153 lots as of Thursday. However, a bearish factor for arabica prices is that ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4.75-month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 842,223 bags as of Thursday.
Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are bullish for prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s May green coffee exports fell by -36% y/y to 2.8 million bags.
Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2025 Vietnam’s Jan-May coffee exports are down -1.8% y/y to 813,000 MT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags.
The USDA’s biannual report, released last Wednesday, was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25.
