July arabica coffee (KCN25) Wednesday closed down -10.95 (-3.26%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) closed down -299 (-6.92%).
Coffee prices plummeted on Wednesday, with arabica falling to a 5-month low and robusta sinking to a 1-year low due to an improved supply outlook. Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest is weighing on prices as Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s comparable level of 37% but in line with the 5-year average of 35%. The breakdown showed that 49% of the robusta harvest and 26% of the arabica harvest were complete as of June 11. Brazil’s arabica harvest has been slowed by heavy rain in some areas.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Wednesday that its members reported the coffee harvest was 17.8% complete as of June 13. Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter of coffee.
Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past seven weeks due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies. On May 19, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.
Recent rainfall in Brazil has eased dryness concerns and is weighing on coffee prices. On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 10.6 mm of rain during the week ended June 14, 131% of the historical average for this time of year.
Robusta coffee prices have underlying support as ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low Wednesday of 5,150 lots. In a bearish factor for arabica prices, however, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1/2 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 861,143 bags as of Wednesday.
Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are bullish for prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s May green coffee exports fell -36% y/y to 2.8 million bags.
Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2025 Vietnam’s Jan-May coffee exports are down -1.8% y/y to 813,000 MT. In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on March 12 cut its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags. Conversely, the USDA’s FAS on May 19 projected that Vietnam’s 2025/26 robusta coffee crop would climb +7% y/y to a 4-year high of 30 million bags.
The USDA’s biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.0% y/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
