While retail investors remain optimistic about XRP and expect higher prices in August, on-chain data shows that whales have been gradually selling off their holdings.
Historical data also highlights a strong correlation between whale activity and XRP price. This connection is now raising concerns about XRP’s outlook for August.
What Does the Correlation Between Whale Activity and XRP Price Reveal?
Since late July, Glassnode data has indicated signs of selling from long-term XRP holders. This selling pressure has continued into August.
The XRPL Whale Flow metric tracks the net difference between inflows and outflows of whale transactions on the XRP Ledger. According to this data, whale flows turned negative and deeply so during the first week of August. This suggests that large wallets may be accelerating their XRP sell-offs.
(XRPL Whale Flow 30DMA. Source: CryptoQuant)
The data also shows a similar pattern occurred earlier this year, in January and February. At that time, XRP peaked at $3.40 before sharply dropping to around $1.60. This decline aligned with significant whale distribution. A 50% price drop earlier this year highlights how much influence these entities have over XRP’s price.
Additionally, CryptoQuant data reveals a sharp increase in the number of whale transactions sending XRP to exchanges. On July 31, there were more than 51,000 such transactions. By August 4, that number was still high—over 38,000.
This trend mirrors early-year behavior. Back then, whale transactions to exchanges spiked to nearly 65,000. XRP didn’t crash immediately, but the rally lost steam and entered a distribution phase.
Taken together, the two sets of data suggest more than just growing outflows from whale wallets. They also point to a rising number of whale deposits to exchanges—supporting the case for heavy selling in the first week of August.
However, there are possibilities that whales may have already completed their sell-offs, and XRP could be preparing for a strong rebound.
There’s a glimmer of hope supporting this bullish outlook. Outflow activity from whale wallets has slightly decreased since the beginning of the month. A closer look at the XRPL Whale Flow chart shows that on August 1, net outflow was around -$54 million. By August 7, that figure had declined to -$43.7 million.
BeInCrypto’s latest XRP analysis emphasizes the importance of holding the $2.65 support level in the coming days.
Traders must monitor whale activities and the XRP price action. A base formation near the support level could be a sign of a reversal.
