Monday’s economic calendar is typically light. The overnight data from China carry the most weight for market sentiment and FX: they once again highlight the problem that Chinese industrial success is occurring despite a weak domestic consumer, underlining how crucial the ongoing trade‑talks are for global activity.
From a central‑bank and monetary‑policy perspective, the final euro‑area inflation print and several FOMC speeches will be in focus. Nevertheless, the main reference point for markets will be the debate around the U.S. credit‑rating downgrade and comments from the Trump administration on the issue.
Economic calendar for today:
10:00 GMT, Euro Zone – inflation data for April:
- CPI (y/y) – forecast 2.2 % (prev. 2.2 %)
- CPI (m/m) – forecast 0.6 % (prev. 0.6 %)
- Core CPI (y/y) – forecast 2.7 % (prev. 2.4 %)
- Core CPI (m/m) – forecast 1.0 % (prev. 1.0 %)
- CPI ex‑tobacco (y/y) – prev. 2.1 %
- CPI ex‑tobacco (m/m) – prev. 0.6 %
- HICP ex‑energy & food (y/y) – forecast 2.7 % (prev. 2.5 %)
- HICP ex‑energy & food (m/m) – forecast 0.9 % (prev. 0.8 %)
13:30 GMT, United States – Speech by FOMC member John Williams
13:30 GMT, United States – Speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic
15:00 GMT, United States – Leading Index for April (m/m): forecast –0.7 % (prev. –0.7 %)
18:30 GMT, United States – Speech by FOMC member Neel Kashkari
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