Today’s session will be dominated by preliminary PMI readings for May. These indicators will be closely watched by investors for new trends in service and manufacturing activity, especially in the context of the dramatic shift in the White House’s rhetoric on tariffs.
PMI readings in recent months have painted a rather mixed picture of business conditions on both sides of the Atlantic. In the Eurozone, we have seen a sort of “crossover”: manufacturing began to rebound clearly, while the previously strong services sector started to lose momentum. In the U.S., meanwhile, there has been a general slowdown in activity (especially in manufacturing), and unprecedented uncertainty has led to a breakdown in business expectations for the coming months. The gap between the U.S. services and manufacturing sectors is expected to widen, with the latter likely slipping into contraction.
The schedule also includes speeches from central bankers, which will carry additional weight in Europe in the context of the ECB Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting minutes, scheduled for release at 11:30 GMT. We will also see data on jobless claims and the latest figures from the U.S. real estate market.
Economic calendar for today
07:15 GMT, France – PMI report for May:
- Manufacturing PMI in France: forecast 48.9; previous 48.7;
- Services PMI in France: forecast 47.7; previous 47.3;
- Composite PMI by S&P Global in France: forecast 48.0; previous 47.8;
07:30 GMT, Germany – PMI report for May:
- Manufacturing PMI in Germany: forecast 48.8; previous 48.4;
- Services PMI in Germany: forecast 49.6; previous 49.0;
- Composite PMI in Germany: forecast 50.4; previous 50.1;
08:00 GMT, Germany – Ifo Business Climate Index for May:
- forecast 87.4; previous 86.9;
08:00 GMT, Eurozone – PMI report for May:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 49.2; previous 49.0;
- Services PMI: forecast 50.4; previous 50.1;
- Composite PMI by S&P Global: forecast 50.7; previous 50.4;
08:00 GMT, Poland – Industrial production for April:
- Industrial production: previous 2.5% y/y;
08:30 GMT, United Kingdom – PMI report for May:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 46.2; previous 45.4;
- Services PMI: forecast 50.0; previous 49.0;
- Composite PMI: forecast 49.3; previous 48.5;
08:30 GMT, United Kingdom – Speech by BoE representative
11:30 GMT, Eurozone – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
12:30 GMT, United States – Jobless claims:
- New claims: forecast 230K; previous 229K;
- 4-week average of claimants: previous 230.50K;
- Continuing claims: forecast 1.890M; previous 1.881M;
12:30 GMT, United Kingdom – Speech by BoE MPC member Pill
12:30 GMT, Canada – Inflation data for April:
- Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI): forecast -0.5% m/m; previous 0.5% m/m;
- Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI): previous 4.7% y/y;
12:30 GMT, Canada – Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) for April:
- forecast -2.2% m/m; previous -1.0% m/m;
13:30 GMT, Germany – Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel
13:45 GMT, United States – PMI report for May:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 49.9; previous 50.2;
- Services PMI: forecast 51.0; previous 50.8;
- Composite PMI by S&P Global: previous 50.6;
14:00 GMT, United States – Existing home sales for April:
- previous -5.9% m/m;
14:00 GMT, United States – Existing home sales for April:
- forecast 4.15M; previous 4.02M;
15:00 GMT, Eurozone – Speech by ECB’s Elderson
15:35 GMT, Eurozone – Speech by ECB representative de Guindos
16:00 GMT, United States – Auction of 10-year inflation-protected Treasury securities:
previous 1.935%;
18:00 GMT, United States – Speech by FOMC member Williams
18:30 GMT, Canada – Speech by BoC Governor Macklem
20:30 GMT, United States – Federal Reserve balance sheet:
previous 6.713B;
20:30 GMT, United States – Reserve balances in Federal Reserve banks:
previous 3.236T;
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