The night brought euphoria following Nvidia’s earnings and a completely new reality in trade relations, after the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked parts of the tariffs imposed via Donald Trump’s executive orders. Declared illegal were the global 10% tariff and the so-called fentanyl tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. The Trump administration has already announced it will appeal, but the market is expected to remain sensitive to aggressive rhetoric on the matter.
The most important data scheduled for today is the revised U.S. GDP reading for Q1 2025. The previous decline was driven by record imports, prompted by fears of higher rates ahead of tariff implementation. A potential reduction in data noise may provide fresh insight into the U.S. economy.
In addition to GDP, markets await the recently stable U.S. jobless claims data, speeches from Fed and BoE members, and the EIA report, which is especially relevant in light of recent oil market volatility.
Economic calendar for today:
12:30 GMT, Canada – Current Account Balance (Q1)
- Forecast: -3.4B
- Previous: -5.0B
12:30 GMT, Canada – Average Weekly Earnings (March)
- Previous: +5.40% y/y
12:30 GMT, United States – Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Q1)
- Forecast: +1.8%
- Previous: +4.0%
12:30 GMT, United States – Jobless Claims
- Initial Claims: Forecast: 229K; Previous: 227K
- 4-week Moving Average: Previous: 231.50K
- Continuing Claims: Forecast: 1.890M; Previous: 1.903M
12:30 GMT, United States – PCE Price Index (Q1)
- Forecast: +3.6%
- Previous: +2.4%
12:30 GMT, United States – GDP Deflator (Q1)
- Forecast: +3.7%
- Previous: +2.3%
12:30 GMT, United States – GDP (Q1)
- Forecast: -0.3%
- Previous: +2.4%
12:30 GMT, United States – Speech by FOMC Member Barkin
12:30 GMT, United States – Corporate Profits (Q1)
- Forecast: +5.9%
- Previous: -0.4%
12:30 GMT, United States – Core PCE Price Index (Q1)
- Forecast: +3.5%
- Previous: +2.6%
12:30 GMT, United States – Final Sales of Domestic Product (Q1)
- Forecast: -2.5%
- Previous: +3.3%
14:00 GMT, United States – real estate market data (April)
- Pending Home Sales: Forecast: -0.9% m/m, Previous: +6.1% m/m
- Index (Existing Homes): Previous: 76.5
16:00 GMT, United States – EIA Weekly Report
- Crude Oil Imports: Previous: +0.110M
- Distillate Fuel Production: Previous: +0.131M
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: Previous: -0.457M
- Weekly Distillate Prices: Forecast: +1.000M; Previous: +0.579M
- Refinery Crude Throughput (w/w): Previous: +0.089M
- Heating Oil Inventories: Previous: -0.348M
- Gasoline Inventories: Forecast: +0.100M; Previous: +0.816M
- Gasoline Production: Previous: +0.178M
- Refinery Utilization Rate (w/w): Previous: +0.5%
- Crude Oil Inventories: Forecast: +1.000M; Previous: +1.328M
16:00 GMT, United States – 7-Year Treasury Note Auction
- Previous Yield: 4.123%
20:00 GMT, United Kingdom – Speech by BoE Governor Bailey
21:00 GMT, United States – Speech by FOMC Member Daly
21:30 GMT, United States – Reserve Balances at Federal Reserve Banks
- Previous: $3.284T
21:30 GMT, United States – Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
- Previous: $6.689B
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