Economic Calendar – U.S. PCE Data And German Inflation in Focus

Today’s economic calendar centers on critical U.S. inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy amid ongoing trade tariff uncertainty. The PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—headlines a packed day that also features German CPI, Canadian GDP, and U.S. consumer sentiment data. Markets remain on edge following yesterday’s appeals court decision to reinstate Trump’s tariffs and stalled China trade talks.

Key Economic Data (BST)

07:00 – German Retail Sales (Apr)

• German Retail Sales MoM: Forecast 0.2% vs Previous -0.2%

08:00 – Swiss KOF Leading Indicators (May)

• KOF Leading Indicators: Forecast 98.3 vs Previous 97.1

08:00 – Spanish CPI Data (May)

• Spanish CPI YoY: Forecast 2.1% vs Previous 2.2%
• Spanish HICP YoY: Forecast 2.0% vs Previous 2.2%

13:00 – German CPI (May) 

• German CPI YoY: Forecast 2.0% vs Previous 2.1%
• German CPI MoM: Forecast 0.1% vs Previous 0.4%

13:30 – U.S. PCE Price Index (Apr) – CRITICAL RELEASE

• Core PCE Price Index YoY: Forecast 2.5% vs Previous 2.6%
• Core PCE Price Index MoM: Forecast 0.1% vs Previous 0.0%
• PCE Price Index YoY: Forecast 2.2% vs Previous 2.3%
• PCE Price Index MoM: Forecast 0.1% vs Previous 0.0%

13:30 – U.S. Personal Spending (Apr)

• Personal Spending MoM: Forecast 0.2% vs Previous 0.7%

13:30 – U.S. Goods Trade Balance (Apr)

• Goods Trade Balance: Forecast -$142.80B vs Previous -$161.99B

13:30 – U.S. Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Apr)

• Retail Inventories Ex Auto: Previous 0.4%

13:30 – Canadian GDP Data

• GDP QoQ (Q1): Previous 0.6%
• GDP YoY (Q1): Previous 2.36%
• GDP Annualized QoQ (Q1): Forecast 1.7% vs Previous 2.6%
• GDP MoM (Mar): Forecast 0.1% vs Previous -0.2%
• GDP MoM (Apr): TBC

14:45 – U.S. Chicago PMI (May)

• Chicago PMI: Forecast 45.1 vs Previous 44.6

15:00 – U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May Final)

• Consumer Sentiment: Forecast 50.8 vs Previous 52.2
• Consumer Expectations: Forecast 46.5 vs Previous 47.3
• 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Forecast 7.3% vs Previous 6.5%
• 5-Year Inflation Expectations: Forecast 4.6% vs Previous 4.4%

16:30 – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)

• GDPNow Q2: Forecast 2.2% vs Previous 2.2%

17:20 – Fed Speaker

• FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

18:00 – Baker Hughes Rig Count (Weekly)

• Oil Rig Count: Previous 465
• Total Rig Count: Previous 566

20:30 – CFTC Speculative Net Positions

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