EUR/USD consolidates as traders holder their breath ahead of tariffs

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EUR/USD continued to churn near the 1.0800 level on Tuesday.
Markets are bracing for tariff announcements from the Trump administration on Wednesday.
Economic data takes a back seat to Trump tariff stress, but NFP still looms ahead.

EUR/USD stuck to familiar levels on Tuesday, churning chart paper close to the 1.0800 handle as investors brace for US President Donald Trump’s long-threatened “reciprocal” tariffs package, due to be announced on Wednesday at 1900 GMT (4 pm EST). The exact details of President Trump’s ever-changing tariff proposals remain cloudy at best, and are due to change several times or even be outright delayed, as Donald Trump has already done on four separate occasions since taking office 71 days ago.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the United States Trade Representative Office may be preparing a last-minute alternative tariff proposal to present to Donald Trump in an effort to alleviate and streamline a lopsided pile of tariff threats from the US President over the past 71 days.

European inflation figures for March came in with little surprises on Tuesday. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March sank faster than expected, falling to 49.0 from 50.3 as businesses hunker down ahead of expected tariff announcements. Median market forecasts expected a print of 49.5 or better. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index also fell sharply for the second month in a row, declining to a two-year low of 45.2.

European economic data remains strictly mid-tier through the remainder of the trading week, however most traders will be busy juggling tariff reactions through Wednesday anyway. However, a fresh print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures are due this Friday. This NFP release could be a major datapoint for markets as the US economy heads into a post-tariff economic environment, with March’s labor data set to act as a “bellwether” for the impacts of the Trump team’s tariff plans.

EUR/USD price forecast

EUR/USD continues to trade in the middle of a technical trap, with buyers unable to take a firm leg higher, but short pressure too limited to push Fiber price action back under the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 1.0700 handle.

EUR/USD snapped a near-term losing streak, pushing technical oscillators into oversold territory, but a continuation pattern remains unlikely as market participants focus on geopolitical factors.