Gold price builds on its steady intraday ascent despite a broadly firmer USD

• Gold price attracts buyers for the third straight day, though the upside seems limited.
• Rising trade tensions offset a broadly firmer USD and remain supportive of the move.
• Reduced Fed rate cut bets might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is prolonging its steady uptrend for the third consecutive day on Friday and approaching the top end of its weekly range amid rising trade tensions. Investors remain on edge amid concerns about the potential economic fallout from US tariffs, especially after US President Donald Trump issued notices to a slew of trading partners this week. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving safe-haven flows towards the previous metal.

Meanwhile, diminishing odds for an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain supportive of the bid tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD), which currently trades near its highest level in more than two weeks. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the non-yielding Gold price, warranting some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move in the absence of any relevant macro data.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price retains positive bias amid safe-haven buying

• US President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on  Canadian imports, effective August 1. The decision was conveyed in a letter, which marks the latest in a string of over 20 similar tariff notices Trump has issued since Monday. This comes following Wednesday’s announcement of a 50% tariff on US copper imports and continues to drive safe-haven flows towards the Gold price.
• Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 policy meeting showed that most policymakers remain worried about the risk of rising inflationary pressure on the back of Trump’s aggressive trade policies. The Minutes also revealed that only a couple of officials felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, assisting the US Dollar to stand firm near a two-week top set on Thursday.
• On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 227K for the week ending July 5. This was less than the estimates and the previous month’s downwardly revised reading of 232K. This, along with stronger US employment details released last Thursday, points to a resilient US labor market and signals no urgency for the Fed to cut rates.
• Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that monetary policy is still restrictive, and it’s time to think about adjusting the interest rate. Tariffs aren’t as high as they were expected to be, and economic fundamentals support a move toward lower rates at some point, Daly added further.
• Separately, Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller noted that tariff inflation effects are likely to be short-lived and that a rate cut here would not be politically motivated. Waller – one of the possible favorites to replace Powell in 2026 – made another push for an early interest rate cut in July.
• In contrast, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that it was too soon to tell if tariffs will have a one-off or a more persistent impact on inflation. The economy is in a good place, and it is critical for the Fed to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored, Musalem added further.
• There isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday, leaving the USD at the mercy of comments from influential FOMC members. Apart from this, trade-related developments should contribute to providing some impetus to the XAU/USD pair on the last day of the week. At current levels, the commodity remains on track to end the week on a flattish note.

Gold price could appreciate further once the $3,340 immediate hurdle is cleared decisively

From a technical perspective, some follow-through buying beyond the $3,340-3,342 horizontal barrier will confirm a breakout through the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This, along with slightly positive oscillators on the said chart, should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move and lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $3,360-3,362 region. The momentum could extend further and allow the XAU/USD pair to reclaim the $3,400 mark.

On the flip side, weakness below the $3,326 immediate support could attract some dip-buyers and help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $3,300 round figure. This is followed by the $3,283-3,282 region, or over a one-week low touched on Tuesday. A convincing break below the latter would make the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the July swing low, around the $3,248-3,247 area.