Higher U.S Planting And Better South American Weather Sees Corn Move Lower
Corn futures (CORN) on CBOT decline nearly 1% today, extending speculative sell-off after recent contract rollover. The decline comes after months of record gains, during which corn futures reached levels last seen in August 2023. The drop in corn prices is also influencing positioning in wheat (WHEAT) and soybean (SOYBEAN) contracts.
Corn momentum is easing
- Favorable prices are prompting markets to raise their forecasts for planted acreage in the U.S. this season, potentially increasing supply. CoBank estimates that US corn plantings could be as much as 4% higher, reaching over 94.5 million acres of land.
- The weakening dollar and declining U.S. stockpiles previously fueled price increases, but the market is now worried that Trump’s renewed threat of tariffs on Mexico and Canada could strengthen the dollar. Additionally, forecasts of heavy rainfall in Argentina and Brazil are contributing to the downward trend in corn futures amid sowing fears easing
- CBOT data shows that large funds were net sellers of corn both on Friday and during yesterday’s session in Chicago. Large speculators still hold a significant net long position in CBOT corn futures, according to CoT data.
- On Friday, the USDA will release its wheat harvest projections during the Agricultural Outlook Forum. A potential upward revision in supply estimates could create pressure on corn.
- Following corn’s decline, wheat is also experiencing losses, despite forecasts from Russian state agencies indicating that unfavorable weather in the southern regions is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on supply.
- Meanwhile, AgRural has slightly lowered its soybean harvest forecast in Brazil to 168.2 million metric tons from the previously projected 171 million. Nevertheless, the upcoming harvest is still expected to be the largest in history.
CORN (D1 Interval)
Source: xStation5
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