IMF Estimates Mexico’s GDP Growth to Slow to 1% in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Mexico’s economy to grow by 1.0% in 2025, down from 1.4% in 2024, before ticking up to 1.5% in 2026. The forecast is below the Mexican government’s projection of growth between 1.8% and 2.8% next year, while the budget deficit is expected to fall slightly to 4.10%. The agency warned that fiscal and structural measures are needed to secure long-term economic stability. Meanwhile, Mexico’s public gross debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 61.5% by 2030 under current policy, the agency said. Mexico’s economic outlook is clouded by trade tensions, infrastructure gaps, and fiscal vulnerabilities, the international lender stated after a staff visit to the country. However, the IMF noted that risks to the country’s financial stability appear to be low. The economic outlook could improve if US demand is stronger than expected, and if Mexico secures a favorable review of its trade pact with the US and Canada.