Iron Ore Falls on Weak Fundamentals

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 770 per tonne on Friday, extending losses for a second straight session as demand concerns coincided with ample supply. Disruptions to steel production tied to China’s upcoming military parade turned out less severe than expected, but long-term consumption from the world’s top buyer remains clouded by a weak property sector, sluggish infrastructure activity, and uncertain manufacturing momentum. Industry data showed portside inventories in China climbed 0.2% from the prior week to 138.5 million tons as of August 21, adding to oversupply worries. On the supply side, shipments from Brazil are projected to rise 4% year-on-year in 2025 thanks to stronger mining activity and infrastructure improvements. Higher volumes to China are expected to replace shipments from Australia, Peru, and India. Meanwhile, Australian exports remain steady but face weather-related risks later in the year, while India has kept export volumes constrained by domestic demand.