Japan Q2 GDP Growth Beats Estimates

Japan’s GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q2 2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised increase in Q1 and surpassing market expectations, both of which stood at 0.1%, preliminary data showed. It was the fifth consecutive quarterly expansion, amid steady private consumption (0.2% vs 0.2% in Q1) that outpaced the consensus of 0.1% despite persistent cost pressures. Meanwhile, government spending was flat after declining 0.5% in the prior period. Business investment gained momentum (1.3% vs 1.0%), easily topping forecasts of 0.5% and reflecting preemptive moves ahead of expected rate hikes. Meanwhile, net trade added 0.3ppts, as exports rebounded (2.0% vs -0.3%) while imports slowed sharply (0.6% vs 2.9%). Exporters rushed shipments ahead of U.S. tariffs, while automakers mitigated the impact of rising duties by cutting prices to sustain domestic production. Analysts caution that the full hit to growth may emerge in upcoming data, as Japan now faces a 15% blanket tariff on all exports to the U.S.