JOLTS job openings forecast to ease in March ahead of key jobs report for April

• The US JOLTS data will be watched closely ahead of the release of the April employment report on Friday.
• Job openings are forecast to edge lower to 7.5 million in March.
• The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when setting policy.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in March, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.

JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been declining steadily since reaching 12 million in March 2022, indicating a steady cooldown in labor market conditions. In January, the number of job openings came in above 7.7 million before declining below 7.6 million in February. 

What to expect in the next JOLTS report?

Markets expect job openings to retreat to 7.5 million on the last business day of March. With the growing uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policy on the economic and inflation outlook, Federal Reserve policymakers have been voicing their concerns over a cooldown in the labor market. 

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said last week that he is worried that businesses could start laying workers off because of the uncertainty caused by trade frictions. On a similar note, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg that he would not be surprised to see more layoffs and higher unemployment. “Easiest place to offset tariff costs is by cutting payrolls,” Waller explained.

It is important to note that the JOLTS report refers to the end of March, while the official Employment report, which will be released on Friday, measures data for April. Regardless of the lagging nature of the JOLTS data, a significant decline in the number of job openings could feed into fears over a weakening labor market. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.

On the flip side, a sharp increase, with a reading above 8 million, could suggest that the labor market remains relatively stable. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets don’t expect the Fed to cut the policy rate at the next policy meeting in May, while pricing in a nearly 60% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) reduction in June. Hence, the market positioning suggests that a positive surprise could support the USD by causing investors to lean toward another policy hold after May.