- The main topic of the weekend, and thus the beginning of Monday’s session, is the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz.
- Although this information initially caused considerable uncertainty (drops in futures contracts for Wall Street indices) and a dynamic jump in oil prices, at the moment these movements have been almost completely reversed.
- Concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key point for oil trading, seem unlikely to materialize at the moment, because even in the event of the closure of the part of the strait that is part of Iran’s territorial waters, commercial shipments could take place through part of the waters of Oman and the UAE, which would most likely be secured by the US fleet.
- However, great uncertainty remains due to another escalation, so investors will be closely watching Trump’s comments on this matter today. The US President will meet with the national security team today at 1:00 p.m. US Eastern Time.
- At the moment, WTI oil futures are up 1.05%, US100 is down 0.15%, and gold prices are down 0.25%. The dollar index is up 0.22%.
- EUR, AUD, NZD, and GBP have also recovered some of their earlier losses, with the biggest sell-offs still being seen on AUD and NZD.
- Apart from geopolitics, the main topic of Monday’s session will be PMI data for June from the world’s major economies.
- Data from Australia, in terms of preliminary PMI for services and industry, were 51.3 (previously 50.6) and 50.4 (previously 49.4).
- Similarly, in Japan, the flash composite PMI rose to 51.4 from 50.2, supported by solid services and industrial production growth. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY rate is close to a five-week high.
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