July Nymex natural gas (NGN25) on Thursday closed sharply lower by -0.131 (-3.70%).
July nat-gas prices on Thursday extended this week’s slide to a 6-month low. Nat-gas prices fell on Thursday’s weekly EIA report, which showed a +96 bcf increase in the week ended June 20, which was a larger build than expectations of +88 bcf and the 5-year average increase for the week of +79 bcf. In addition, the Commodity Weather Group is forecasting a cool-down in the eastern half of the US for the later period of June 20-July 4 behind a cold front, which should curb nat-gas demand from electricity providers to run air conditioning.
An easing of geopolitical risks is also bearish for nat-gas prices due to the Israel-Iran ceasefire. The ceasefire reduces the likelihood that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt LNG shipments through that Strait, which accounts for approximately 20% of global LNG trade.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday was 105.6 bcf/day (+2.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 77.1 bcf/day (-1.2% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 14.1 bcf/day (+4.0% w/w), according to BNEF.
A decline in US electricity output is negative for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended June 21 fell -3.1% y/y to 91,334 GWh (gigawatt hours), although US electricity output in the 52-week period ending June 21 rose +2.6% y/y to 4,243,923 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 20 rose +96 bcf, above the consensus of +88 bcf and the 5-year average for the week of +79 bcf. As of June 20, nat-gas inventories were down -6.6% y/y, but were +6.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of June 23, gas storage in Europe was 57% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 66% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending June 20 fell by -2 to 111 rigs, slightly below the 15-month high of 114 rigs from June 6. In the past nine months, gas rigs have risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs posted in September 2024.
