December arabica coffee (KCZ25) on Thursday closed up +0.75 (+0.20%), and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) closed down -40 (-0.90%).
Coffee prices found support Thursday after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags from a May forecast of 37.0 million bags. Conab also cut its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by -0.9% to 55.2 million bags from a May estimate of 55.7 million bags.
News of reduced coffee exports is also supportive for prices after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Wednesday reported that global July coffee exports fell -1.6% y/y to 11.6 million bags, and cumulative Oct-Jul coffee exports fell -0.3% y/y at 115.615 million bags.
Coffee prices have support from tighter ICE coffee inventories. ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low of 6,552 lots last Thursday. Also, ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags on Wednesday.
Coffee prices also have support due to concerns about tighter coffee supplies in the US, as American buyers are voiding new contracts for purchases of Brazilian coffee beans because of the 50% tariffs imposed on Brazilian exports to the US. This is tightening the coffee supply in the US market, where about a third of unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.
Above-average rainfall in Brazil has eased coffee crop concerns ahead of the all-important flowering period this month and is bearish for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 10.1 mm of rain during the week ended August 30, or 163% of the historical average.
Harvest pressures in Brazil are also bearish for coffee prices after Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Tuesday that the harvest among its members was 94.9% complete as of August 29. Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter group. Separately, Safras & Mercado reported on August 22 that Brazil’s overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 99% complete as of August 20, ahead of the comparable level of 98% last year. The breakdown showed that 100% of the robusta harvest and 98% of the arabica harvest were complete as of August 20.
Reduced exports from Brazil are supporting prices. On August 6, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT. In related bullish news released last Wednesday, Brazil’s green coffee exports in July fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, according to exporter group Cecafe. Cecafe reported that July arabica exports fell -21% y/y, while robusta exports plunged -49% y/y. Cecafe said Brazil’s July coffee exports fell -28% to 2.7 million bags, and that coffee shipments during Jan-July fell -21% to 22.2 million bags.
Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported last Tuesday that Vietnam’s Jan-Jul 2025 coffee exports were up +6.9% y/y to 1.05 MMT.
The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. However, Volcafe is projecting a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
