Oil Price Prediction – The Case for Crude Oil Prices to Climb to $130
Oil prices climbed significantly on Friday, June 13 after Israel launched an airstrike against Iran in response to its alleged violation of nuclear non-proliferation rules.
Still, experts at JPMorgan continue to assert that oil will remain within a tight range of $60 to $65 through 2026.
August Brent crude futures (CBQ25) are currently trading just below $75 as of this writing.
Why Does JPMorgan Expect Oil to Fall to Near $60?
JPMorgan analysts are convinced that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East won’t have a lasting impact on oil prices in the second half of 2025.
In a note to clients, they argued oil supply from Iran will remain intact as diplomacy prevails in its flaring conflict with Israel.
Additionally, JPMorgan expects macroeconomic headwinds, including potential rate hikes and a global economic slowdown to weigh on oil prices through the remainder of this year as well.
Investors should note that global push for energy transition could also dampen the possibility of a drastic increase in oil prices.
What Could Trigger a More Than 100% Increase in Oil Prices to $130?
On the flip side, if worst-case scenarios were to play out, rising tensions between Israel and Iran could push Brent crude up significantly to a multi-year high of $130, according to JPM experts.
The investment firm agreed that a military confrontation involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel could prove catastrophic for oil’s supply chain, especially if it blocks the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply.
Such an event will likely remove Iran’s 2.1 million barrels per day of exports from the market, all the while jeopardizing shipping from other Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In this scenario, global oil inventories could draw down sharply, triggering panic buying and driving prices up nearly 75% from here, especially if spare production capacity proves insufficient to fill the gap, JPMorgan experts concluded.
