Palm Oil Under Pressure to Start the Week

Malaysian palm oil futures fell over 1.5% to below MYR 4,180 per tonne, reversing prior gains amid weakness in rival Dalian oils and caution ahead of China’s July trade data later this week. Prices neared a three-week low as bets of seasonally higher output mounted, driven by improved labor availability. On the export front, July shipments were soft, with cargo surveyors noting a 6.7%–9.6% fall from June. Crude oil prices extended losses on signs of another production increase in September, adding to bearish sentiment. Still, a stronger ringgit limited further declines, alongside data showing Malaysia’s palm oil exports to the U.S. surged 51.8% yoy between January and May 2025, despite the U.S. being a minor market. Meanwhile, demand from top buyer India is expected to stay firm ahead of the Diwali festival in mid-October, supported by favorable pricing versus soyoil and sunflower oil. In Indonesia, the world’s largest grower, palm oil exports reached 11 million tonnes in H1 of 2025.