Thailand Industrial Output Shrinks More than Expected

Thailand’s industrial production declined by 3.98% year-on-year in July 2025, falling more sharply than market expectations of a 1.1% drop and marking the first contraction since February, reversing a 0.58% increase in June. The downturn was primarily driven by sharp contractions in output from petroleum refining (-18.43%) and automotive manufacturing (-7.66%). Additionally, output of rubber and plastic products and food products fell by 3.42% and 1.60%, respectively. By contrast, output rose in several categories, including clothing and apparel (+12.74%), electronic components and circuit boards (+8.43%), basic iron and steel (+7.72%), and computers and peripherals (+0.33%). In April, the Industry Ministry revised its 2025 industrial growth forecast downward to a range of 0%–1%, from a previous projection of 1.5%–2.5%, citing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and elevated household debt as key headwinds.