The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to around 4.25% on Monday, partially recovering from a nearly 20 basis point plunge in the previous session as markets reassessed the Federal Reserve’s rate path. The benchmark yield dropped nearly 20 basis points on Friday after data showed nonfarm payrolls rose by just 73,000 in July, far below expectations, with prior months revised down by 258,000, pointing to a deeper labor market slowdown. Traders are now nearly fully pricing in a Fed rate cut in September, with over 63 basis points of easing expected by December. The selloff in yields was further fueled by President Donald Trump’s abrupt firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, whom he accused of falsifying the data. Investors are also monitoring the broader economic impact of Trump’s sweeping retaliatory tariffs, which may weigh on both growth and inflation expectations.
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