XAU/USD struggles to build on modest intraday gains amid mixed fundamental cues

• Gold price edges higher during the Asian session, though it lacks follow-through buying.
• Trade uncertainties and rising geopolitical risks underpin the safe-haven precious metal.
• The Fed’s hawkish pause lifts the USD to over a one-week high and caps the XAU/USD.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and remains well below the $3,400 round figure through the Asian session on Thursday. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday, signaling a slower pace of cuts in the future, assists the US Dollar (USD) to build on its recent recovery from a three-year high. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the global risk sentiment remains fragile on the back of persistent trade-related uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This triggers a fresh wave of a flight to safety, which assists the safe-haven Gold price to hold above the weekly low set on Wednesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of this week’s pullback from a nearly two-month high.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls seem reluctant amid hawkish Fed-inspired USD strength

• US President Donald Trump held a Situation Room meeting Wednesday afternoon to discuss options in the Israel-Iran conflict. Media reports suggest that Trump has approved attack plans, though he wants to make sure that such an attack on Iran is really needed and that it wouldn’t drag the US into a prolonged war in the Middle East.
• As the Israel-Iran conflict enters its seventh day, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warned residents of the cities of Arak and Khondab in central Iran to evacuate for their safety as it is operating in the area against Iranian military infrastructure. This raises the risk of an all-out war in the Middle East and weighs on investors’ sentiment.
• Meanwhile, Trump earlier this week said that tariffs on the pharma sector are coming soon. This adds a layer of uncertainty in the markets ahead of the July 9 deadline for higher reciprocal US tariffs and lends some support to the safe-haven Gold price, though some follow-through US Dollar buying keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciation.
• The Federal Reserve, as was widely expected, kept interest rates steady amid concern that the Trump administration’s tariffs could push up consumer prices. In the so-called dot plot, the committee projected two rate cuts by the end of 2025, though policymakers forecasted only one 25-basis points rate cut in each of 2026 and 2027.
• Furthermore, seven of the 19 policymakers indicated they wanted no cuts this year, up from four in March, amid the risk that inflation could stay persistently higher and end the year at 3%. This, in turn, assists the USD to build on this week’s recovery from a three-year low and caps the upside for the non-yielding yellow metal.
• US banks will be closed on Thursday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day, which suggests relatively lower liquidity and irregular volatility. Moreover, there isn’t any relevant US macro data due for release, leaving the XAU/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment.

Gold price dips towards ascending trend-channel support could be seen as buying opportunity

From a technical perspective, the formation of an ascending channel points to a well-established short-term uptrend and favors bullish traders. Moreover, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that any intraday slide is likely to be bought into and remain limited near the $3,345 area, or the lower boundary of the trend-channel. A convincing break below the latter would negate any near-term positive outlook and make the Gold price vulnerable to extend this week’s retracement slide from a nearly two-month high.

On the flip side, the $3,400 mark now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong barrier, above which the XAU/USD pair could climb to the $3,434-3,435 region. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the $3,451-3,452 area, or a nearly two-month top touched on Monday, should allow the Gold price to challenge the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark. The said handle coincides with the ascending channel barrier, which if cleared will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls.