• EUR/USD holds positive ground around 1.1450 in Monday’s Asian session.
• The pair keeps the bearish vibe below the key 100-day EMA, and the path of least resistance is to the downside with oversold RSI momentum. 
• The first upside barrier to watch is 1.1510, and the initial support level emerges at 1.1415. 

The EUR/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.1450 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited, as escalating conflict in the Middle East could boost safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). 

US President Donald Trump claimed over the weekend that “many countries” would send warships to the region before publicly urging a string of countries to do so. Trump further stated that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a “very bad” future if US allies fail to assist in opening up the Strait of Hormuz. 

Traders brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions later this week. The Fed is widely expected to hold the interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, but energy-driven inflation risks are dampening hopes for future rate cuts.

Swaps pricing indicates markets expect the ECB to tighten monetary policy faster than previously thought. The ECB is now seen hiking as soon as June, according to LSEG data.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of EUR/USD stays bearish as spot holds well below the 100-day exponential moving average, which has started to flatten after a prior topping phase, while price has broken beneath the lower Bollinger Band in recent sessions and now tracks along the downside of the envelope. The RSI hovers in oversold territory after sliding from mid-range readings, confirming strong downside momentum and suggesting sellers remain in control, even as the pair trades stretched below its 20-day Bollinger midpoint near 1.1700.

Initial resistance emerges at 1.1510, the latest recovery high, followed by stronger supply around 1.1620, where the 20-day Bollinger middle band and the 100-day EMA converge into a cap. On the downside, immediate support is located at 1.1415, the recent closing low, with a break exposing the next bearish target near 1.1360, derived from continuation along the current lower Bollinger Band trajectory. As long as EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1620, rallies are expected to attract selling interest, keeping focus on lower supports.