The euro–dollar pair is pulling back toward the 1.157 area today ahead of Germany’s inflation data, which will be released at 2:30 p.m. Yesterday’s ECB minutes had a fairly hawkish tone, with the bank signaling a pause in rate cuts. On the other hand, recent data from the United States continue to show persistent resilience of the American economy, including a lower-than-expected reading of jobless claims. Germany’s actual monthly retail sales for October fell by -0.3%, compared with forecasts of 0.2% and the previous reading of 0.2%. A potential decline in private consumption in Europe could strengthen the argument for a weaker euro, and the market may react sensitively to such data, as the “resilient consumer” has been one of the key factors supporting the euro and remains an obstacle for the ECB.

EURUSD (D1 interval)

The euro–dollar pair is pulling back slightly after three consecutive days of gains and is currently trading in the mid-range between the EMA200 (red line) and EMA50 (orange line), suggesting investor indecision about the sustainability of the trend, despite rising expectations of a December rate cut, which now stand close to 84%.

Source: xStation5

EURUSD is trading within a triangle pattern, and the recent upward breakout has been invalidated by the drop from 1.161 to 1.156. For now, however, the decline is occurring on relatively low volume. The RSI indicator remains below the 50 level.

Source: xStation5

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