Facts:
- USDNOK has been trading below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA100; dark violet) continuously since August 20, 2025, and has not closed above the EMA30 (light violet) even once since August 21, 2025.
- U.S. interest rate futures (Fed Fund Futures) are currently pricing in at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, while the swap market (Overnight Index Swap; OIS) is pricing in only one for Norway (source: Bloomberg Finance LP).
- Despite today’s attempt, the pair failed to recover yesterday’s losses, bouncing today off the EMA10 (yellow).
Recommendation:
- Short position (SELL) on USDNOK at market price
- Target price (Take Profit; TP): 9.8880 (TP1), 9.8000 (TP2)
- Stop Loss (SL): 10.1100
Source: xStation5
Opinion
USDNOK has been in a strong downtrend since February, which has not been broken despite approaches to the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA100, dark violet) in April, July, and August 2025. While the broader dollar situation stabilized last month, a renewed surge in expectations for U.S. rate cuts has once again strengthened selling pressure on USDNOK, which has been trading below the EMA10 (yellow) for more than two weeks. Considering the recent weak series of U.S. labor market data (NFP, JOLTS, and ISM Employment below expectations, jobless claims above expectations, and successive downward NFP revisions), the dollar is now weighed down not only by increasingly dovish monetary policy expectations (the market is currently pricing in 2.8 cuts by the end of 2025) but also by fears of a sharp economic slowdown. Meanwhile, Norway’s central bank last cut rates in June (to 4.25%), and further cuts remain uncertain due to inflation climbing back above 3% since May.
Methodology
The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the USDNOK chart and fundamental analysis of the respective economies (interest rates). The recommendation’s direction was determined using moving averages (longer above shorter; downtrend) and expected market reactions to monetary policy in Norway and the U.S.
Take Profit levels were determined using Fibonacci retracements (TP1) and Price Action methodology (TP2). Stop Loss was placed slightly above the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level and the EMA30, which should act as key resistance if the pair rises back above EMA10
