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Canadian Dollar advances as Middle East uncertainty weighs on US Dollar

  • USD/CAD falls as the US Dollar pauses ahead of Middle East updates and crucial Fed policy data.
  • A hot US inflation report solidified expectations for a “higher-for-longer” Federal Reserve interest rate environment.
  • The Canadian Dollar may weaken as falling oil prices follow reports of the US completing military strikes in Iran.

USD/CAD loses ground for the third successive day, trading around 1.3940 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds losses as investors assess ongoing Middle East tensions with anticipation of upcoming US economic data, which could signal the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

The Greenback may regain its ground amid rising safe-haven demand due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Israeli military says that the Home Front Command, the branch of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responsible for civil defense, issued an early warning after launches from Lebanon toward northern Israel.

The US Dollar (USD) gained ground after a hot inflation report released on Wednesday, which effectively solidified expectations for a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment from the Federal Reserve. Driven primarily by war-induced energy price spikes, US inflation accelerated in May to its fastest pace in over three years. %. Traders await the upcoming release of the May Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims later today.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-over-year and 0.5% monthly, both perfectly matching market forecasts. Meanwhile, core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, climbed 0.2% on the month and 2.9% annually. Following the data release, financial markets aggressively pivoted, abandoning any remaining expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.

The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face challenges amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil holds losses near $89.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices eased after the US military announced it had completed its latest strikes on Iran, raising hopes that peace negotiations could resume and tempering oil supply concerns.

Earlier, the US launched fresh attacks on Iran after President Trump accused Tehran of delaying talks on an interim peace agreement, while Iran reportedly responded by targeting US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Eyes 1.3400 amid modest USD weakness; remains below weekly top

  • GBP/USD gains some positive traction as easing inflationary concerns weigh on the USD.
  • Fed rate hike bets and rising US-Iran tensions should limit USD losses and cap spot prices.
  • The mixed technical setup, too, warrants caution before positioning for further upside.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and stalls the previous day’s pullback from the 1.3425 region, or the weekly high. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3385 zone, up just over 0.10% for the day, though the upside potential seems limited.

The US Dollar (USD) edges lower as soft US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased concerns about a runaway inflation spiral and turned out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Traders, however, are still pricing in a 70% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year. Apart from this, renewed hostilities between the US and Iran help limit deeper USD losses, capping the upside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent slide from the 1.3655 region. Moreover, repeated failures to build on the momentum beyond the 23.6% Fibo. level warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move in the near-term, despite improving momentum indicators.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the neutral 50 mark. This hints at modest underlying demand but not yet enough to challenge the prevailing topside barriers at 1.3438 (38.2% level) and the 1.3475-1.3480 confluence – the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibo. Above that, the GBP/USD pair could rise to deeper Fibo. hurdles at 1.3520 and 1.3579.

On the downside, structural support is only clearly defined near the recent swing low anchor at 1.3305. A convincing break below this floor would likely reassert bearish momentum and make the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to further weakness. The broader setup, however, reinforces the idea of a market that is consolidating under medium-term resistance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.13%-0.03%-0.05%-0.08%-0.06%-0.21%
EUR0.13%-0.00%0.09%0.07%-0.06%0.09%-0.08%
GBP0.13%0.00%0.11%0.08%-0.04%0.10%-0.08%
JPY0.03%-0.09%-0.11%-0.02%-0.16%-0.02%-0.17%
CAD0.05%-0.07%-0.08%0.02%-0.13%0.02%-0.16%
AUD0.08%0.06%0.04%0.16%0.13%0.15%-0.05%
NZD0.06%-0.09%-0.10%0.02%-0.02%-0.15%-0.17%
CHF0.21%0.08%0.08%0.17%0.16%0.05%0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Indian Rupee slumps as oil price surges amid fears of US-Iran ceasefire collapse

  • The Indian Rupee faces intense selling pressure against the US Dollar due to a strong recovery in oil prices.
  • FIIs continue to squeeze their stake in the Indian stock market.
  • India’s CPI in May is seen higher at 4% YoY from 3.48% in April.

The Indian Rupee (INR) tumbles at open against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the USD/INR pair rising to near 95.65. The pair gains as a sharp recovery in oil prices due to fears surrounding the collapse of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has weakened the Indian Rupee.

In India’s morning session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 is up 0.7% to near 8,787. The contract surged 3.6% on Wednesday even after recovering significant losses.

The appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, diminishes in a high oil price environment.

US launches strikes against Iran’s unwarranted aggression

On late Wednesday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that it launched additional “self-defense strikes” on multiple targets in Iran as retaliation against Tehran’s “unwarranted and continued aggression”. This came after the US CENTCOM launched a series of attacks on Iran’s air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday in response to Iran shooting down the US Apache helicopter.

Additional military operations from Washington were already anticipated as US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News that he is close to ordering new strikes against Iran for taking too long in finalizing a deal.

Before remarks pointing to ordering fresh strikes against Iran, US President Trump also said in a post on Truth Social that Iran has to pay the price for taking too much time in reaching a deal.

However, the ceasefire between the US and Iran announced in April appears not to have collapsed yet as US President Trump has told aides to deliver a message to Iran via Qatar that the attacks did not mean a “restart of all-out war,” and were only in response to the helicopter downing, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.

FIIs keep squeezing stake in Indian stock market

Overseas investors continue to pare their stake in the Indian stock market as higher oil prices keep weighing on India Inc.’s earnings projections. So far in June, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers on all trading days and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 62,654.34 crore.

India’s CPI data awaited

On the domestic front, the major trigger for the Indian Rupee will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published on Friday. Investors will closely monitor the data to get fresh cues regarding the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy outlook.

In the policy meeting last week, the RBI kept the Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, and warned that the central bank would need to act “if inflation gets generalized”.

India’s CPI data is expected to arrive higher at 4% Year-on-Year from 3.48% in April.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays in Symmetrical Triangle formation

USD/INR trades higher at around 95.65 at press time. The near-term trend of the pair appears to be sideways in an overall bullish structure amid the Symmetrical Triangle formation. The pair remains close to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 95.4886, indicating a sideways trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.79 is near neutral but slightly positive, hinting that upside pressure persists, even as the pair consolidates beneath the descending resistance trend structure derived from prior highs.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the bearish trend-line break area near 96.03, where a clear daily close above would open the way for a more sustained recovery towards the all-time high at 97.08. On the downside, immediate support sits at the 20-day EMA at 95.49, with the next, more structural, floor at the rising trend-line region around 94.77; a break below this latter level would weaken the current constructive tone and expose deeper retracements.

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United States Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand above 99.50

  • DXY struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the weekly low.
  • Fed rate hike bets and rising US-Iran tensions limit the downside for the safe-haven USD.
  • The bullish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the weekly low. The index, however, remains confined within the weekly range and currently trades near the 100.00 psychological mark, just below its highest level since April 6, set on Monday.

A softer Core US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased concerns about a runaway inflation spiral, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the US Dollar (USD). However, a rise in the headline CPI to a three-year high keeps the door open for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. This, along with renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and helps limit further losses.

From a technical perspective, the range bound price action witnessed since the beginning of this week might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent breakout through the 99.50 horizontal barrier. Moreover, the Index is holding well above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 99.01, which now underpins the broader upturn and backs the case for an extension of a one-month-old uptrend.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.29 stays in positive territory without yet signalling overbought conditions. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above the zero line with a mildly positive reading near 0.08, hinting that upside momentum is still constructive but not aggressive. Hence, acceptance above the 100.00 mark is needed to back the case for a further near-term appreciation.

On the downside, immediate support is located near the 99.50 resistance breakpoint, with the 200-period EMA at 99.01 reinforcing a deeper structural floor on pullbacks. As long as the DXY defends this moving average, dips are likely to be treated as corrective rather than the start of a sustained reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

DXY daily chart

Chart Analysis Dollar Index Spot

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.11%-0.11%-0.03%-0.04%-0.03%-0.03%-0.19%
EUR0.11%0.00%0.07%0.07%-0.02%0.11%-0.07%
GBP0.11%-0.00%0.06%0.07%-0.01%0.10%-0.08%
JPY0.03%-0.07%-0.06%-0.02%-0.11%0.00%-0.15%
CAD0.04%-0.07%-0.07%0.02%-0.09%0.04%-0.15%
AUD0.03%0.02%0.01%0.11%0.09%0.12%-0.07%
NZD0.03%-0.11%-0.10%-0.00%-0.04%-0.12%-0.18%
CHF0.19%0.07%0.08%0.15%0.15%0.07%0.18%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 112.50, uptrend holds above 100-day SMA

  • AUD/JPY drifts higher to around 112.40 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • Broader positive outlook prevails above the 100-day SMA, but temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out with bearish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.62; the initial support level is located at 112.25. 

The AUD/JPY cross gains ground near 112.40 during the early European session on Thursday, bolstered by the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Macquarie analysts said the Australian central bank is likely to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged next week while delivering a hawkish message that reinforces market expectations for an interest-rate increase in August.

Nonetheless, the potential upside for the cross might be limited amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a verbal warning, saying that the government is monitoring speculative moves and remains prepared to take decisive measures to prevent the domestic currency weakness. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader uptrend technically supported despite the latest pullback toward the lower Bollinger Band at 112.26. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 leans toward bearish momentum, suggesting recent downside pressure is not yet fully spent even as price clings to its underlying trend support.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near 113.62, with the upper band up at 115.00 acting as the next hurdle if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the lower Bollinger Band at 112.25, ahead of the more strategic 100-day SMA at 111.75, where a sustained break would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader bullish structure.

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Japanese Yen moves little after reaching six-week lows

  • USD/JPY flatlines near a six-week high of 160.56 following suspected foreign-exchange intervention by Japanese authorities.
  • Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated the government is closely monitoring currency market movements to ensure economic stability.
  • The US Dollar may regain ground as escalating Middle East conflicts drive increased global demand for safe-haven assets.

USD/JPY remains flat after two days of gains, trading around 160.50 during the Asian hours. The pair moves little after reaching a six-week high of 160.56 during earlier hours on Thursday, which could be attributed to possible foreign-exchange intervention by Japanese authorities.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated earlier this week that the government is keeping a close watch on currency market movements. She emphasized that Japan’s stance remains unchanged regarding its preparedness to implement decisive steps when needed to ensure market stability.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely anticipated to hike interest rates next week as policymakers battle soaring energy costs driven by the Middle East conflict. Tensions escalated sharply after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced an immediate, total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any commercial or oil vessels attempting to transit the strait would be targeted.

The USD/JPY pair may further appreciate as the US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground amid rising safe-haven demand due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Israeli military says that the Home Front Command, the branch of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responsible for civil defense, issues an early warning after launches from Lebanon toward northern Israel.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the US began airstrikes in Iran on Wednesday. Furthermore, President Donald Trump warned of severe military action if an interim peace deal is not finalized, accusing Tehran of stalling. Iranian officials, however, maintain they will not back down.

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Swiss Franc strengthens as US Dollar struggles despite increased risk aversion

USD/CHF may rebound as the US Dollar may regain ground on safe-haven demand from ongoing Middle East conflicts.
Israel’s Home Front Command issued an early warning following rocket launches from Lebanon targeting northern Israel.
Softer UBS capital rules being considered by Swiss lawmakers could shave off billions in regulatory burdens, potentially weakening the CHF.
Swiss Franc strengthens as US Dollar struggles despite increased risk aversion

USD/CHF depreciates after four days of gains, trading around 0.7990 during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, the downside of the pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground amid rising safe-haven demand due to ongoing Middle East conflict.

Israeli military says that the Home Front Command, the branch of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responsible for civil defense, issues an early warning after launches from Lebanon toward northern Israel.

Earlier, US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the US began airstrikes in Iran on Wednesday. Furthermore, President Donald Trump warned of severe military action if an interim peace deal is not finalized, accusing Tehran of stalling. Iranian officials, however, maintain they will not back down.

Following an incident where an American helicopter was shot down, the US launched “self-defense” strikes, triggering Iranian retaliatory attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait.

Adding to the crisis, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced an immediate, total closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial and oil vessels, warning that any transit attempts would be targeted.

May’s US CPI matched forecasts, rising to 4.2% YoY (up from 3.8% in April), while Core CPI ticked up to 2.9% YoY from 2.8%. Market attention now shifts to the upcoming release of the May Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims later today.

Swiss lawmakers are considering a new pitch to soften capital requirements on UBS, if implemented, could shave ‌billions of dollars off the burden the bank is facing under a draft law submitted by the government, sources told Reuters.

If implemented, the move would likely have a short-to-medium-term weakening effect on the Swiss Franc (CHF). While it sounds like a paradox, helping Switzerland’s biggest bank making the currency drop, it boils down to central bank mechanics, market capital flows, and safe-haven dynamics.

Under the government’s original draft law, UBS would have been forced to fully back its foreign subsidiaries

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Indian Rupee flattens while flaring US-Iran tensions dampen outlook

  • The Indian Rupee trades calmly at open against the US Dollar; however, the outlook has become uncertain.
  • The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran has renewed Middle East tensions.
  • Investors await the US-India CPI data for May.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens almost flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair consolidates around 95.42; however, the outlook of the pair has turned bullish as Middle East tensions have flared up again, following the United States (US) retaliation against Iran over the shooting down of an American helicopter.

Renewed US-Iran tensions have offered support to oil prices. As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 is up 0.8% to near 8,490. Oil prices also clawed back half of their early losses on Tuesday after sliding to 8,212.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

US strikes after Trump vows retaliation over the shooting down of an Apache helicopter over Hormuz

On late Tuesday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it launched a series of attacks on Iran’s air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. The US was expected to conduct military operations against Iran as President Donald Trump vowed retaliation for shooting down a US Apache helicopter over Hormuz.

In response, Iran has launched missiles on various US airbases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and has warned Washington to leave the Gulf region for their own safety.

“Powerful armed forces will not ignore any attack or threat,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, adding, “Get out of our region if you want to be safe.”

FIIs remain net sellers on all trading days so far in June

Overseas investors continue to dump their stake in the Indian stock market, as Middle East tensions continue to hurt their sentiment towards risky assets. So far in June, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in all trading days of June and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 60,529.36 crore.

US-India CPI data under spotlight

Later in the day, investors will pay close attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show that the headline CPI grew at an annualized pace of 4.2%, faster than 3.8% in April. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 2.9% against the previous reading of 2.8%.

Signs of price pressures accelerating further would prompt expectations of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes for the year. As of now, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year are almost 72%.

Meanwhile, India’s CPI data on Friday is expected to arrive higher at 4% YoY from 3.48% in April.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades in a Symmetrical Triangle formation

USD/INR trades almost flat at around 95.43 at press time. The Symmetrical Triangle formation and pair’s stickiness to the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.46, reflects that the immediate trend has turned sideways.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 zone, suggesting indecisiveness among investors.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located near the downward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern at around 96.00. A decisive break above 96.00 would open the door for further upside towards the all-time high at 97.10. On the downside, initial support is seen at the upward support trend-line break level near 95.04, ahead of the structural trend-line origin around 94.49; a sustained drop below these marks would open the way for a deeper corrective phase, while holding above them would keep the broader constructive pattern intact.