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AUD/JPY Price Gains traction above 113.00, bullish trend stays firm above 100-day SMA

  • AUD/JPY gains ground to near 113.25 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMA, with RSI holding above the midline. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.55; the initial support level is seen at  112.65.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reports regarding the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government is considering nudging the world’s largest pension fund to buy domestic financial assets to support the currency, though concrete plans have yet to materialize. However, traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities, which might cap the upside for the cross. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a near-term bullish bias as price extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, keeping the broader uptrend supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.23 sits in positive territory without entering overbought conditions, suggesting that buying pressure remains constructive but not overstretched.

On the topside, the next notable resistance is the upper Bollinger band, emerging around 113.55, where the current advance could start to face profit-taking. The next hurdle to watch is the May 14 high of 114.66. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger midline near 112.35, while deeper pullbacks would likely be cushioned by the lower Bollinger band around 111.15.

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EUR/USD Price – Bulls remain cautious below 23.6% Fibo. and 1.1470 hurdle

  • EUR/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day amid a softer US Dollar.
  • Escalating US-Iran tensions keep geopolitical risk premiums in play and support the USD.
  • The technical setup also warrants some caution before placing bullish bets on the pair.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s pullback from the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal resistance, though it remains confined within a multi-week-old range. Spot prices trade around the 1.1435-1.1440 region during the Asian session on Wednesday, up for the second straight day amid modest US Dollar (USD) weakness.

Softer-than-expected US consumer inflation data, released on Tuesday, forced traders to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, which keeps the USD bulls depressed and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. However, inflation risks stemming from elevated crude oil prices and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s price stability commitment, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, should limit deeper USD losses and cap the currency pair.

The EUR/USD pair has been struggling to find acceptance and build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Adding to this, momentum indicators hint at scope for corrective upticks rather than a clear trend reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests improving but still moderate bullish momentum.

This further warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the EUR/USD pair and positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from the 1.1325 region, or the year-to-date low touched in June. The subsequent resistance below the 23.6% Fibo. aligns at the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, near 1.1490, with the 38.2% retracement near 1.1523 and the 50.0% level around 1.1585 acting as the next relevant hurdles.

On the downside, the main structural support emerges at the Fibonacci anchor close to 1.1323, and a clear break under this floor would likely reinforce the broader bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.16%-0.05%-0.08%-0.10%-0.17%-0.03%-0.00%
EUR0.16%0.05%0.07%0.05%-0.06%0.07%0.15%
GBP0.05%-0.05%0.02%-0.01%-0.11%0.02%0.09%
JPY0.08%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.11%0.03%0.06%
CAD0.10%-0.05%0.01%0.03%-0.07%0.00%0.10%
AUD0.17%0.06%0.11%0.11%0.07%0.11%0.16%
NZD0.03%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.01%-0.11%0.07%
CHF0.00%-0.15%-0.09%-0.06%-0.10%-0.16%-0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Euro edges higher against British Pound as oil surge lifts ECB rate expectations

  • EUR/GBP strengthens to around 0.8535 in Wednesday’s early European session.
  • US carries out more strikes on Iran. 
  • Traders boosted wagers on faster BoE and ECB rate hikes after rising oil prices.

The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to near 0.8535 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders ramp up bets  on the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes as oil price surge reignites inflation fears. ECB policymakers Fabio Panetta and Joachim Nagel are set to speak later in the day.

US President Donald Trump’s reimposition of a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and payment demand for all other cargo have raised oil-driven inflation concerns. On Tuesday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that it launched further attacks on Iran, hitting dozens of military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian coastal areas.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday that it had targeted what it described as command-and-control, logistics, fuel and military equipment facilities belonging to the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, per Reuters.

Traders are now fully pricing a 25 basis points (bps) BOE hike by September, followed by another before year-end. They also expect the ECB to raise rates by a quarter-point in September, with another hike by year-end all but certain, according to Bloomberg.

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank remains strictly data-dependent. The official policy account explicitly noted that the June hike was neither a guaranteed sequence nor a guaranteed one-off move. On Wednesday, ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that the central bank prepared to implement monetary policy measures whenever necessary. 

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British Pound advances as US Dollar remains subdued following inflation data

  • GBP/USD rises as the US Dollar sustains losses from soft inflation data, raising expectations for a less hawkish Fed.
  • US June CPI inflation slowed to 3.5% year-over-year from May’s 4.2%, comfortably beating the market consensus of 3.8%.
  • The British Pound gains as energy-driven inflation worries push investors to price in aggressive BoE rate hikes.

GBP/USD rises for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds losses following softer-than-expected US inflation data, fueling hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might adopt a less hawkish monetary stance.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year in June, dropping from a three-year high of 4.2% in May and coming in well below the market consensus of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI actually declined by 0.4% in June, a notable shift from the 0.5% increase recorded in May.

However, the downside of the Greenback could be restrained amid rising safe-haven demand following renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The renewed Hormuz tensions drive up oil prices, fueling inflation concerns and prolonging higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

The British Pound (GBP) strengthens as Middle East tensions fuel inflation worries from rising energy prices, prompting investors to price in aggressive Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes. Markets now heavily anticipate two increases in 2026, with a September hike fully priced in.

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Offshore Yuan Hits 1-Month High

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.76 per dollar on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session to its strongest level in a month, supported by a weaker US dollar even as China’s economic data pointed to uneven growth. The greenback remained under pressure after softer-than-expected US inflation data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, with traders now pricing in a pause at the July meeting despite ongoing oil-driven inflation risks. Meanwhile, China’s economy expanded 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, marking the weakest growth since Q4 2022 and falling below Beijing’s 2026 target range of 4.5%–5.0%. Fixed-asset investment declined 5.7% in the first half, worse than both market expectations and the January–May decline. However, signs of resilience emerged as industrial production accelerated to a three-month high of 5.3% in June, retail sales rebounded 1%, and the urban unemployment rate eased to a one-year low of 5.0%.

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Trade of The Day – AUD/CAD

cts: The main trend on AUDCAD remains downward for a few days The price bounced off the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 0.9800

Recommendation: Trade: Short AUDCAD at market price Target: 0.9780, 0.9769 Stop: 0,9807

Opinion: Looking at the M15 interval, AUDCAD has been trading in a downward trend recently. Following an upward correction, the price failed to break above the resistance marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure and 100-period moving average from the M15 interval, and started to pull back. According to the Overbalance methodology, the main sentiment prevails and we should expect the price to continue to fall. We recommend going short AUDCAD at market price with two targets: 0.9780 and 0.9769 . We also recommend placing stop loss at 0.9807. Source: xStation5

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Oil prices sharply up after Iran escalation

Brent crude tests $85 per barrel amid intensified attacks between the US and Iran Oil prices are rising for the second day in a row due to tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude is up over 2%, testing the vicinity of $85 per barrel. This is the highest level since the downward gap that occurred between June 12 and 15. Situation in the Strait of Hormuz and US plans: President Donald Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the United States indicates that it will act as a security guarantor on this key waterway, Trump announced plans to collect a 20% fee (compensation) from all other cargo benefiting from this protection.

Iran’s reaction and plans: Despite the American blockade imposed on Iranian merchant ships, Tehran is not backing down and firmly announces the continuation of exporting its raw materials to world markets. At the same time, it reports an attack on two supertankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Market background: Further exchange of blows between Washington and Tehran postpones the prospect of quickly unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. This situation raises renewed inflation concerns and increases the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the US Fed.

It is worth noting that US crude oil inventories are already extremely low from the perspective of recent years, and reserves are the lowest since the 1980s. If vessel traffic is not resumed, oil prices could rise even to the level of $100 per barrel. If the situation is tense but the ship flow is continued to a limited extent, prices will likely reach an important supply zone in the vicinity of $88-$90 per barrel, where important technical levels are located. Zapasy i rezerwy strategiczne w USA

US commercial inventories are the lowest since 2018, while strategic reserves are at their lowest since the 1980s. A further decline in inventories and reserves could raise concerns about energy security in the US, despite near-total self-sufficiency. It is worth noting, however, that the United States has served as a buffer for supplies to Asian countries. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Brent crude chart on the D1 interval

The price of crude oil has risen by over 20% from its last local low at the turn of the month and is approaching the 61.8 retracement of the upward wave associated with the Iranian conflict. The 88-90 USD zone is reinforced by local lows and the 50-period average. Source: xStation5

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AUD/USD Price Tests nine-day EMA barrier near 0.6950

  • AUD/USD may decline toward a nearly six-month low of 0.6833.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 40 signals the asset remains under bearish pressure.
  • The pair is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6932.

AUD/USD edges higher after posting 0.5% losses in the previous day, trading around 0.6930 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remaining within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bearish bias.

The AUD/USD pair is holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains under both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is attempting to stabilise after recent losses, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests only modest recovery momentum, hinting that any rebound may stay capped while price trades below these clustered moving-average barriers.

The AUD/USD pair may fall toward a nearly six-month low of 0.6833, recorded on March 30. Further declines would expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.6770.

On the upside, the AUD/USD is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6932, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 0.6960. A break above the channel would cause a bullish emergence and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA of 0.7011.

Chart Analysis AUD/USD
AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.11%-0.10%-0.13%-0.18%-0.17%-0.75%-0.16%
EUR0.11%0.00%0.00%-0.07%-0.07%-0.63%-0.05%
GBP0.10%-0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.05%-0.64%-0.05%
JPY0.13%0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.07%-0.65%-0.07%
CAD0.18%0.07%0.06%0.06%-0.01%-0.57%0.01%
AUD0.17%0.07%0.05%0.07%0.00%-0.57%0.03%
NZD0.75%0.63%0.64%0.65%0.57%0.57%0.59%
CHF0.16%0.05%0.05%0.07%-0.01%-0.03%-0.59%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).