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Swiss Franc strengthens ahead of SNB rate decision

  • USD/CHF weakens to near 0.7985 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The Fed voted unanimously to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its June policy meeting. 
  • The Swiss National Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday. 

The USD/CHF pair loses momentum to around 0.7985 during the early European session on Thursday. The United States (US) and Iran signed an interim agreement that would end the Iran war, weighing on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its interest rate decision later on Thursday. 

US President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the agreement is taking “immediate effect” after being signed by both Washington and Tehran. 

Federal Reserve (Fed) officials left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its June policy meeting while signaling the possibility of higher rates later this year as the central bank gauges the inflation effects of the Iran conflict.

Traders have now fully priced in a rate hike in the coming months as the US central bank focuses on price stability over employment. A hawkish tone from the Fed could support the Greenback in the near term. 

The SNB is expected to keep its key policy rate at 0% at the June policy meeting on Thursday and for the rest of the year, according to all the economists who responded to a Reuters poll. 

“With those opposing forces from FX and energy prices at play ‌and Switzerland’s low inflation starting point, we think inflation pressures weigh less on the SNB than on most central banks … Our base case remains the zero‑interest‑rate policy stays in place until end-2027,” said Chiara Angeloni, Europe economist at Bank of America.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Recovers further from March low, climbs to 1.1525 on weaker USD

  • EUR/USD gains positive traction as the USD drifts lower in reaction to the US-Iran peace deal.
  • The ECB’s rate hike signal supports the Euro, while hawkish Fed bets should limit USD losses.
  • The bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from its lowest level since late March, around the 1.1480-1.1475 region touched the previous day. The intraday move up is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and lifts spot prices to a fresh daily high, around the 1.1525 area in the last hour.

The US-Iran deal, aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosts investors’ confidence and prompts some USD profit-taking following Wednesday’s strong move up to a fresh high since late March. Furthermore, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish signal lends some support to the shared currency and the EUR/USD pair. However, rising bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December could limit USD losses and cap the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices hold well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and keep a bearish near-term tone. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 38. Momentum indicators together suggest that downside pressure persists even as the EUR/USD pair attempts to stabilize above the recent swing lows.

Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront a hurdle near the 1.1575-1.1580 horizontal support breakpoint ahead of the 1.1600 round figure. Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA at 1.1638 should act as a strong barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a more sustained recovery.  On the downside, acceptance below the 1.1500 mark would expose the EUR/USD pair to further weakness as momentum remains skewed to the downside.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD
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Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears as Iran deal undermines USD

  • USD/JPY bulls pause as intervention fears support the JPY amid a modest USD downtick.
  • The US-Iran peace deal optimism counters the Fed’s hawkish tilt and weighs on the USD.
  • The US-Japan rate differential should cap the JPY and help limit the downside for the pair.

The USD/JPY pair holds steady above mid-160.00s during the Asian session on Thursday, consolidating its gains registered over the past four days to the highest level since July 2024. The US Dollar (USD) pulls back following Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed)-inspired rally to a fresh high since late March amid the latest optimism over a US-Iran peace deal. Adding to this, intervention fears offer some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and contribute to capping the currency pair.

US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending hostilities between the two countries and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Trump said that the 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program is not a hard deadline, boosting investors’ confidence. This, in turn, prompts some USD profit-taking and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, traders remain on high alert amid speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency. In fact, Japan’s top foreign exchange diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama have issued repeated warnings that Tokyo is monitoring speculative moves and remains fully prepared to curb further JPY weakness. This, along with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) historic rate hike to the highest since 1995, limits further JPY losses and caps the USD/JPY pair.

That said, Japan’s borrowing costs remain lower than those of peer nations, including the US. In fact, the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled the possibility of at least one rate hike this year after leaving its benchmark overnight borrowing rate anchored in the 3.5%-3.75% range on Wednesday. The persistently wide interest rate differential with the US keeps the JPY carry trade active, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the upside, and any corrective pullback should be bought into.

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD1.21%0.91%1.16%2.66%1.98%1.53%1.81%
EUR-1.21%-0.28%-0.04%1.44%0.79%0.30%0.61%
GBP-0.91%0.28%0.26%1.73%1.05%0.60%0.89%
JPY-1.16%0.04%-0.26%1.48%0.74%0.34%0.60%
CAD-2.66%-1.44%-1.73%-1.48%-0.64%-1.12%-0.82%
AUD-1.98%-0.79%-1.05%-0.74%0.64%-0.46%-0.16%
NZD-1.53%-0.30%-0.60%-0.34%1.12%0.46%0.28%
CHF-1.81%-0.61%-0.89%-0.60%0.82%0.16%-0.28%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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United States Dollar Index holds losses after pulling back from 11-week highs

  • US Dollar Index remains subdued after pulling back from an 11-week high of 100.57 reached on Wednesday.
  • The Greenback slips as easing safe-haven demand followed a preliminary US-Iran memorandum of understanding to end the war.
  • The US Dollar may regain as half of the FOMC members expect at least one rate hike this year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, pulled back after reaching an 11-week high of 100.57 in the previous day and is now trading around 100.30 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

The Greenback slips on easing safe-haven demand following the BBC report late Wednesday, indicating that the White House confirmed that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding designed to end the US-Israel war on Iran. This decisive executive action follows the electronic signing of the initial framework by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf earlier in the week.

However, the US Dollar could rebound on rising odds of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. The Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections showed half of FOMC members expect at least one rate hike this year. Despite economic disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran, resilient labor market data and persistent underlying inflation measures continue to drive tightening pressures.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to maintain its benchmark federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. In his first meeting since taking the helm of the US central bank, the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, vowed to aggressively restore price stability.

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New Zealand Dollar gains ground to near 0.5800 as US-Iran Presidents signs agreement to end war

  • NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5790 in Thursday’s Asian session.
  • New Zealand’s Q1 annual GDP beat the estimates. 
  • Fed held interest rates steady and signaled growing support for rate hikes this year.

The NZD/USD pair gains traction to around 0.5790 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) amid upbeat annual New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and improved risk sentiment. 

Data released by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday showed that the country’s GDP expanded by 0.8% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026. This figure followed a 0.5% expansion (revised from 0.2%) in the fourth quarter of 2025 and came in weaker than the expectation of a rise of 0.9%.

On an annual basis, the New Zealand economy grew by 1.5% in Q1 of 2026, compared to a rise of 1.5% (revised from 1.3%) in Q4 of 2025, while beating the estimation of a 1.1% growth.

US President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian have electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end the US and Israel’s war on Iran, per Reuters. Both sides said the deal is in effect. Iran and the US are expected to formally sign the MOU to end the war on Friday in Geneva.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday decided to leave the policy rate in 3.50%-3.75% range at its June policy meeting. The federal funds rate has held there since the US central bank lowered rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the latter part of 2025. Fed officials signaled the chance of higher rates as they assess the impacts of the Iran war on inflation.

“Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” said Kevin Warsh in his debut press conference as chairman. Officials are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.”

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Eyes 0.7050 on weaker USD; 100-day SMA holds the key for bulls

  • AUD/USD attracts fresh buyers on Thursday as the US-Iran peace deal undermines the USD.
  • The hawkish RBA further benefits the Aussie, while Fed rate hike bets could limit USD losses.
  • The bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.

The AUD/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday, reversing part of the previous day’s slide to sub-0.7000 levels, or the weekly low. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7040 region, up nearly 0.40% for the day, amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats from its highest level since late March amid the latest optimism over the US-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish signal that further rate hikes are possible if inflation remains stubbornly elevated supports the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the AUD/USD pair. However, rising bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December might hold back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and cap the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, this week’s repeated failures near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support breakpoint favor bearish traders. Moreover, the AUD/USD pair holds below the 50% retracement of the March-May upswing, suggesting that rallies are more likely to be sold into while spot prices remain capped beneath these overhead levels. This negative outlook is further reinforced by bearish momentum indicators. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 42, and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints at waning upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50% retracement around 0.7054, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.7085 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7106, with a stronger barrier further up at the 23.6% level around 0.7171. On the downside, initial support is defined by the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.7002, with deeper cushions at the 78.6% level around 0.6928 and the prior swing low near 0.6834, where buyers would be expected to show more interest if the decline extends.

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.20%-0.19%-0.05%-0.01%-0.36%-0.44%-0.14%
EUR0.20%0.01%0.17%0.18%-0.16%-0.29%0.06%
GBP0.19%-0.01%0.13%0.15%-0.17%-0.28%0.03%
JPY0.05%-0.17%-0.13%0.06%-0.32%-0.44%-0.10%
CAD0.01%-0.18%-0.15%-0.06%-0.36%-0.49%-0.14%
AUD0.36%0.16%0.17%0.32%0.36%-0.12%0.22%
NZD0.44%0.29%0.28%0.44%0.49%0.12%0.35%
CHF0.14%-0.06%-0.03%0.10%0.14%-0.22%-0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Rupiah Holds Near IDR 17,850 Ahead of BI Decision

The Indonesian rupiah traded near IDR 17,850 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday, little changed from the previous session, as traders awaited the central bank’s interest rate decision later in the day. Policymakers are widely expected to raise the benchmark rate by 25bps, following cumulative 75bps of tightening since May, to support the rupiah and reinforce inflation expectations. While tighter monetary policy should help stabilise the local currency, higher borrowing costs could further weigh on domestic demand. Investors also weighed local reports of a new stimulus package for lower-middle-income households, alongside unchanged subsidized fuel and LPG prices. Jakarta, meanwhile, has cut funding for the flagship Free Meal Program by about IDR 67 trillion as President Prabowo pursues fiscal efficiency. Externally, the dollar stayed firm after the Fed held rates but flagged growing support for hikes later this year, curbing gains across emerging-market currencies, including the rupiah.

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Indian Rupee Retreats on Firmer Dollar

The Indian rupee hovered around 94.6 per dollar, retreating from recent gains as the US dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve concluded its latest policy meeting. Investors reassessed the interest-rate outlook after the Fed unanimously left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, while updated projections signaled a notable shift in policymakers’ expectations. Further pressure on the rupee came as US Treasury yields climbed, with the two-year yield rising 12 basis points, supported by a series of resilient economic indicators that reinforced the case for higher-for-longer interest rates. Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to move lower after the United States and Iran reached an interim agreement to halt the conflict and restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over energy supply disruptions.