Currency Hedger No Comments

Chart of The Day – EUR/USD Deepens Decline. What’s Next For The Pair?

The U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly in recent days, and hawkish revisions to Federal Reserve projections have become the primary catalyst behind the decline in the world’s most important currency pair. Notably, EUR/USD has continued to fall even though the European Central Bank recently delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike.

This suggests that the move is being driven by more than just interest-rate expectations. Investors are increasingly focused on the divergence between the U.S. and eurozone economies. In the United States, key indicators such as ISM surveys, PMI data, and Nonfarm Payrolls continue to point to relatively solid economic growth. By contrast, the eurozone appears stuck in what could be described as “stable stagnation.” Across Europe, risks remain tilted to the downside due to ongoing disruptions in energy markets and persistent weakness in manufacturing, which remains an important contributor to regional growth.

Today German Ifo Business Climate data at 9 AM GMT can move the pair.

EUR/USD Chart (D1, H1) EUR/USD has fallen toward the 1.135 area, signaling a reversal into a bearish trend. The pair is now trading significantly below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200, red line), which is located near 1.16 and reinforced by several important historical price reactions. The pair has now posted nearly five consecutive losing sessions, with the biggest catalyst for the selloff being the Federal Reserve’s shift toward a more hawkish policy outlook.

Source: xStation5

Looking at the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD is currently mirroring the previous correction almost point for point. The key question is whether the strong downside momentum is beginning to fade. If selling pressure starts to ease around current levels, the decline could slow and allow for a rebound toward 1.14, where the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50, orange line) is currently located.

Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/JPY Price – Range tightens further at around 161.60

  • USD/JPY consolidates around 161.60 as hawkish BoJ supporting Japanese Yen counters outperforming the US Dollar.
  • One BoJ member expects interest rates to rise to 2% as soon as possible.
  • BoJ’s Asada, PM Takaichi appointee, voted against the interest rate hike in the policy meeting this month.

The USD/JPY pair trades in a limited range around 161.60 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair consolidates as hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) bets are supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the US Dollar’s (USD) continued outperformance.

Earlier in the day, the BoJ Summary of Opinions (SoP) of the June meeting showed that a majority of officials favor more interest rate hikes to counter mounting inflation risks. Also, one board member said Japan’s policy rate must be brought closer to the estimated neutral rate of around 2% as soon as possible.

The BoJ SoP also showed that new board member, Toichiro Asada, the appointee of Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi, voted against the hike, citing downside inflation and employment risks due to the Middle East crisis. In the policy meeting, the BoJ lifted interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1%.

Meanwhile, a Reuters report shows that the BoJ is almost certain to deliver another interest rate hike this year in December.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 101.50, the highest level seen in over a year.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades flat at around 161.65 at press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.72, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.11 stays in positive territory but below overbought levels, suggesting strong yet not extreme upside momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the round-level 160.00, followed by the 20-week EMA at 158.72. On the upside, the pair would enter uncharted territory if it breaks above the all-time high around 162.00.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/GBP Price – Testing 10-month lows at 0.8611 in risk-off markets

  • EUR/GBP depreciates 0.6% so far this week to test 10-month lows in the 0.8610 area.
  • A tech rout in stock markets and frictions in the US-Iran peace deal are weighing on risk appetite on Wednesday.
  • Momentum indicators suggest that upside attempts are likely to find sellers.

The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the fourth consecutive day against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday. The EUR/GBP pair has lost about 0.6% so far this week and is testing the 0.8610 area at the time of writing, its lowest level in the last 10 months.

The Pound sterling seems to be faring better than the Euro amid the risk-off market mood. Stock markets in Asia and the US have been dragged down by sharp declines in tech shares, as investors take profits after a long AI rally, while frictions between the US and Iran regarding nuclear inspections have cast a shadow over the outcome of the peace deal.

On the macroeconomic front, the Bank of England’s (BoE) official, Alan Taylor, stated on Tuesday that an extended hold is the right response to the increase in price pressures and that the bank should be ready to cut rates if a benign scenario plays out. In the Eurozone, the focus on Wednesday will be on German ZEW Business Climate data, which is expected to show a minor improvement in June.

Technical Analysis: Euro remains under significant bearish pressure

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8615 with a bearish near-term tone, holding a few pips above the lows of March 2026 and August 2025, with momentum indicators in most timeframes highlighting strong negative pressure. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) sits just above oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative.

A confirmation below the mentioned 0.8611 would expose the August 2025 bottom, at 0.8595, and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of Monday’s sell-off, at the 0.8585 area. On the topside, initial resistance appears at Tuesday’s highs of 0.8634, followed by the June 19 low, at 0.8657. A break above these would open the way toward the June 18 and 21 highs, around 8.8680.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.14%0.08%0.06%0.09%0.08%0.24%0.22%
EUR-0.14%-0.06%-0.07%-0.06%-0.06%0.06%0.09%
GBP-0.08%0.06%-0.04%-0.02%0.00%0.12%0.14%
JPY-0.06%0.07%0.04%0.02%0.00%0.13%0.15%
CAD-0.09%0.06%0.02%-0.02%-0.01%0.10%0.15%
AUD-0.08%0.06%-0.00%-0.01%0.00%0.12%0.13%
NZD-0.24%-0.06%-0.12%-0.13%-0.10%-0.12%0.02%
CHF-0.22%-0.09%-0.14%-0.15%-0.15%-0.13%-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

Offshore Yuan Hits 1-Month Low

The offshore yuan depreciated to around 6.80 per dollar on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in a month, as a stronger US dollar continued to weigh on the currency. The greenback remained supported by mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in September, with markets now assigning roughly a 70% chance of a rate hike. Further pressure came from the People’s Bank of China, which continued to set the yuan’s daily reference rate at weaker-than-expected levels. The central bank fixed the currency at 6.8195 per dollar on Wednesday, extending its longest streak of weaker fixings since April 2025. Meanwhile, China has effectively halted certain tungsten exports to Japan, while rare-earth magnet shipments fell to a one-year low in May, when Beijing first rolled out its global export-control regime. Such restrictions have remained in place amid tensions over Taiwan-related remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Indian Rupee Slides to One-Week Low

The Indian rupee fell to around 94.8 per dollar, retreating after a brief stabilization as renewed strength in the greenback and shifting expectations for US monetary policy overshadowed lower crude oil prices. The currency came under renewed pressure after the dollar index climbed to its highest level in more than a year, driven by growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve could implement one or two additional interest-rate hikes before the end of the year. The rupee’s decline was partly cushioned by a sharp drop in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $77 per barrel and posting losses of roughly 16.5% for the month. The decline in energy prices has been supported by signs that tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually returning to normal. Additional support came from improving capital-flow dynamics. Foreign investment into Indian debt markets has strengthened, while equity-market outflows have moderated compared with earlier months.

Currency Hedger No Comments

New Zealand Dollar weakens as US Dollar rises on Middle East risks, firm US data

  • NZD/USD weakens as a complex Middle East situation sparks risk aversion.
  • Trump claimed Iran agreed to nuclear inspections, but Iran countered that real negotiations have not yet started.
  • Markets widely expect the RBNZ to hike its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% in July.

NZD/USD continues its losing streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 0.5660 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground in a highly complex geopolitical landscape.

Traders are carefully navigating conflicting signals regarding a potential United States (US)-Iran diplomatic breakthrough. While US President Donald Trump stated that Iran had “fully and completely” agreed to open its facilities to nuclear inspections, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly tempered expectations by clarifying that substantive nuclear negotiations have not actually begun.

Additionally, Iran’s chief negotiator issued a stern warning that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status and will remain firmly under Iranian oversight. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts showed signs of progress elsewhere as Washington hosted a fresh round of talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at securing a ceasefire with Iran-backed Hezbollah.

The US Dollar also received support from strong macroeconomic indicators that reinforced the narrative of “US exceptionalism.” June’s flash estimate for the US S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 52.2, comfortably beating May’s reading of 51.5 and signaling healthy business expansion.

The US manufacturing sector showed remarkable resilience, with output jumping to 55.7 from the previous month’s 55.1, easily outperforming forecasts of 54.8. Simultaneously, the Services PMI printed at 51.3, ticking up from May’s 50.7 and clearing the consensus estimate of 51.0, proving that demand in the broader service economy remains incredibly sticky.

On the other side of the ledger, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.5% in July. These hawkish RBNZ expectations are strongly backed by accelerated inflationary pressures within the domestic economy. This policy outlook gained further traction after first-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data remained steady at a stubborn 3.1%, keeping the pressure on New Zealand policymakers to act.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Australian Dollar bulls seem hesitant on mixed CPI data; hangs near April lows vs USD

  • AUD/USD edges higher following the release of Australian consumer inflation figures for May.
  • Bulls, however, seem hesitant amid expectations that the RBA will hold interest rates steady.
  • The USD climbs to an over one-year high on hawkish Fed expectations and further caps the pair.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers following the release of softer Australian consumer inflation figures during the Asian session on Wednesday and reverses a part of the previous day’s slump to the 0.6900 mark, or its lowest level since early April. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6920-0.6925 region, though any meaningful recovery seems elusive amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly eased from 4.2% YoY to 4% in May. Adding to this, the monthly CPI fell more-than-expected, by 0.7% during the reported month, following a 0.4% growth recorded in April. The softer readings, however, were offset by the Trimmed Mean CPI, which rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and picked up slightly from the 3.4% to the 3.6% YoY rate in May.

The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be muted as the US-Iran peace deal has eased concerns about the energy shock, endorsing the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold rates steady in the coming months. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Australian Dollar (USD). Apart from this, the prevalent USD buying interest further contributes to capping the upside for the AUD/USD pair.

The USD Index (DXY) has advanced to a fresh high since May 2025 amid expectations for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, traders upped their bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by at least 25-basis-points (bps) by the year-end following the Fed’s surprisingly hawkish turn last week. This offsets the optimism over the US-Iran peace deal and might continue to underpin the USD, warranting caution for AUD/USD bulls.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Australian Dollar steadies vs Japanese Yen as CPI cools, BoJ hawks

  • AUD/JPY experiences volatility amid cooling Australian inflation.
  • Australia’s annual CPI rose 4.0% while monthly prices fell 0.7%, both slowing much faster than markets expected.
  • JPY defense prompts government intervention and rate hike momentum, highlighting building pressures for a tighter monetary policy.

AUD/JPY remains steady after six days of losses, trading around 0.6920 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross moves little as the Australian Dollar (AUD) experiences minor volatility following the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Australian inflation slowed more than anticipated in May, offering some relief to policymakers. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in the previous month and lower than the 4.4% market consensus. On a monthly basis, consumer prices actually fell by 0.7%, a sharp reversal from the prior month’s 0.4% increase and a softer reading than the forecasted 0.3% decline. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred core inflation metric, the Trimmed Mean CPI, ticked up 0.4% for the month and rose 3.6% on an annual basis.

Over in Japan, momentum is building for tighter monetary policy just as government officials step up warnings to protect a weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated that authorities will take appropriate action against excessive foreign exchange volatility if necessary. This stance was underscored by a high-level call between Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, keeping the market on high alert for official Yen-buying operations.

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from its June meeting showed that a majority of board members supported raising the policy interest rate, noting that inflation risks are broadening and the underlying CPI is sustainably approaching its 2% target.

As a result of these conflicting forces, the upside for the AUD/JPY cross remains firmly capped. The combination of cooling Australian inflation, which dampens the need for higher RBA rate hikes, and heightened fears of direct currency intervention by Japanese authorities has prompted traders to handle the currency cross with extreme caution.