Forex - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger June 20, 2026 No Comments

Forecasting The Upcoming Week – US Dollar Loses Momentum Ahead of key U.S. Inflation Data

The week ahead will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors digest the first Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision under Chair Kevin Warsh and look ahead to the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, global PMI releases, and central-bank commentary.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near the 100.70 price zone on Friday after reaching a 13-month high of 101.13 earlier in the day. The Greenback rose sharply this week following the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and removing its previous reference to “additional rate adjustments” . A hotter-than-expected PCE report, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and extend the upward USD’s trend.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.16%	-0.22%	-0.06%	0.25%	-0.02%	0.23%	0.28%
EUR	0.16%		-0.05%	0.13%	0.41%	0.14%	0.37%	0.44%
GBP	0.22%	0.05%		0.17%	0.45%	0.21%	0.44%	0.50%
JPY	0.06%	-0.13%	-0.17%		0.30%	0.06%	0.27%	0.33%
CAD	-0.25%	-0.41%	-0.45%	-0.30%		-0.22%	-0.03%	0.03%
AUD	0.02%	-0.14%	-0.21%	-0.06%	0.22%		0.21%	0.30%
NZD	-0.23%	-0.37%	-0.44%	-0.27%	0.03%	-0.21%		0.05%
CHF	-0.28%	-0.44%	-0.50%	-0.33%	-0.03%	-0.30%	-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD declined over 0.80% this week to the 1.1480 level amid a broadly strong US Dollar. The Eurozone calendar will keep its eyes on flash PMI data, which should give investors a clearer view of whether activity remains fragile across manufacturing and services. Germany will also be important, with flash PMIs, the Ifo Business Climate survey, and GfK Consumer Confidence due during the week. Any signs of weaker German business sentiment could weigh on the Euro, especially after ECB officials warned about uncertainty around energy prices, inflation transmission, and second-round wage effects.

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3230, with a strong weekly decline, after the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, with two policymakers supporting a hike to 4.00%. Next week, the United Kingdom (UK) flash PMIs and final Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be key for the Pound Sterling.

USD/JPY remains near intervention levels at 161.30, focused on the balance between Fed caution and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) tightening bias. The BoJ recently raised interest rates to 1.00%, while officials continue to warn that inflation risks could require further action. Japan’s flash PMIs, Tokyo CPI, and comments from BoJ officials will be watched closely.

AUD/USD fell this week toward the 0.7020 level, a significant domestic test as Australia releases flash PMIs, monthly CPI, and labor market data. A stronger CPI print or resilient employment data could support the Aussie, while weaker numbers may leave AUD/USD vulnerable to renewed US Dollar strength.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles near the $4,155 level as geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the Middle East could limit downside for the precious metal.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell for a second consecutive week near $76.50 per barrel as the US-Iran agreed a peace deal, weighing on Oil prices. Markets will watch whether Oil flows continue to normalize, as lower energy prices could ease inflation fears and influence central-bank expectations.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Monday, June 22

ECB President Lagarde
Fed’s Waller
ECB President Lagarde

Tuesday, June 23

ECB’s Lane
BoC Governor Macklem
ECB’s Elderson
ECB’s Vujčić
BoE’s Taylor
BoE’s Dhingra

Wednesday, June 24

ECB’s Nagel
BoE’s Breeden
ECB’s Cipollone
BoE’s Dhingra

Thursday, June 25

ECB’s Philip
ECB’s Cipollone
Fed’s Williams
Fed’s Goolsbee

Friday, June 26

ECB’s Nagel
Fed’s Williams
ECB’s Vujčić

Saturday, June 27

ECB’s Schnabel
RBA Governor Bullock

Central banks’ meetings and policy decisions to shape markets

No major Fed, BoE, BoJ, or RBA interest rate decisions are scheduled for the week, leaving investors focused on speeches, incoming data, and the market interpretation of the latest policy meetings.

Currency Hedger June 20, 2026 No Comments

The US Dollar remembers how to rally

DXY printed a fresh 13-month high this week after a hawkish FOMC pushed markets toward pricing a 2026 rate hike.
The move is driven by rate differentials, not a growth scare, as the Fed out-hawks a stalling field of peers.
Next week’s combined GDP and PCE print is the validation test for the rally.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) spent the back half of this week doing something most desks had written off six months ago: rallying on the prospect of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. The index pushed to a fresh 13-month high before easing back; the move owed less to safe-haven flight than to a cold read on rate differentials. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaning hawkish at its June meeting, the Greenback has become the cleanest way to play the only major central bank still willing to tighten into an energy shock.

A yield gap, not a panic

Underneath the geopolitical noise, the Dollar’s bid is a yield story. The Fed has parked itself in a higher-for-longer posture while the field around it has stalled or blinked. The Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) both held this week, with the Greenback taking its largest gains against the Pound and the Franc. Even the European Central Bank (ECB), which delivered its first hike since 2023, is tightening defensively into a contracting economy rather than a strong one; that distinction is the entire trade.

Warsh pulls the guidance rug

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first meeting to do less, not more. The Committee held at 3.75% as expected; the updated dot plot told the real story, with the rate projections revised higher across the board and the median now embedding a hike bias for the year. Warsh himself declined to signal the next move, leaning instead on the line that inflation has sat above target for years and that restoring price stability comes first. Markets took the hint and ran: pricing on CME FedWatch now leans toward a hike by the autumn, with inflation forecasts revised higher on the back of the Middle East conflict. A central bank that refuses to promise cuts, in a world where everyone else is cornered, is a powerful tailwind for its currency.

The number that settles it

Every bar of this rally is implicitly long the hawkish-Fed thesis, which means next week hands the Dollar its first real audit. Thursday delivers a rare double-header at 12:30 GMT: the third estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lands alongside the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The growth print is seen confirming 1.6%, down from the initial 2.0%; the spotlight therefore falls on PCE. Core PCE is already pencilled in to accelerate to 0.3% MoM from 0.2%, which means even an in-line print stamps reacceleration onto core inflation; an upside surprise, coming after May headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) leapt above 4% YoY, would cement the hike pricing and send the index back to test its highs. A soft one would expose how much good news is already in the price.

Resistance: The 101.00 round figure caps the immediate upside, with this week’s 13-month peak just above it; a clean break opens room toward 102.00.

Support: Initial support sits near 100.50, then the psychological 100.00 handle; below that, the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cluster near 99.00 marks where the trend would come into question. The hourly Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is washed out near oversold, which argues the current dip is a pause rather than a turn.

Bias: Bullish while the index holds above 100.00 and the hawkish-Fed narrative survives next week’s data. A hot PCE keeps the path toward 102.00 open; a downside inflation surprise is the one catalyst that turns this stretched-but-intact rally into a deeper pullback toward 99.00.

US Dollar Index hourly chart

Currency Hedger June 20, 2026 No Comments

The Australian Dollar looks for an excuse to break ranks

AUD/USD was knocked lower this week as a hawkish FOMC powered the US Dollar broadly higher.
The RBA held this month, with above-target inflation keeping a further hike on the table.
Wednesday’s Australian CPI is the Aussie’s best chance to trade on something other than the Dollar.

The Australian Dollar spent this week as a passenger in someone else’s trade. A hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and a surging US Dollar dragged the Aussie down to the 0.7000 handle, with the pair’s sharp mid-week drop owing more to events in Washington than to anything out of Canberra. Yet the Aussie is not quite the pure risk-proxy it tends to get treated as. It carries a domestic inflation problem of its own; next week hands it a rare chance to trade on that rather than on the Greenback’s momentum.

The RBA is not done being hawkish

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% this month, yet struck a far-from-dovish tone. Policymakers flagged that inflation remains elevated and has picked up materially, driven in part by higher fuel and commodity prices tied to the Middle East conflict, with pass-through into goods and services already visible. Several desks still see scope for additional tightening before any easing cycle begins; the central bank’s own projections keep inflation above target into 2027. That is a meaningfully firmer footing than most of the Aussie’s peers can claim.

Why the carry can’t catch a bid

None of that has been enough to lift the currency, because the Aussie answers to more than its own rate story. It trades as a liquid proxy for both risk appetite and China, neither of which has helped: a stronger Dollar saps risk sentiment, while soft Chinese demand and a heavy Iron Ore market cap any rebound in Australia’s terms of trade. The result is a currency with real domestic inflation pressure that still cannot pull away from the 0.7000 handle. As long as the Dollar owns the tape, the Aussie’s better fundamentals stay academic.

Two home prints, then the Dollar

Next week finally gives the Aussie a domestic slate to trade. Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May lands on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT, with the annual rate seen ticking up to 4.3% and the trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred core measure, in focus; a hot reading would revive hike bets and hand the currency a genuinely idiosyncratic reason to firm, even against a strong Dollar.

The May employment report follows on Thursday in the same early slot, after the prior month’s surprise contraction in jobs; a rebound would reinforce the hawkish case. The complication is timing: that jobs print lands the same day the US delivers its first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) third estimate and the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) at 12:30 GMT. A firm Australian double-header into a hot US PCE would leave the Aussie pulled in both directions; the Dollar leg usually wins that tug-of-war.

Resistance: The 0.7050 level is the first hurdle, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.7100 capping the broader pullback; the Aussie needs a close back above 0.7100 to argue the down-leg is over.

Support: The 0.7000 handle is the line that matters; it has so far held. A sustained break exposes 0.6950, then the 200-day EMA near 0.6900.

Bias: Neutral-to-bearish while price sits below 0.7100 and the Dollar dominates, but with a clear two-way risk next week. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near oversold leaves room for a bounce; a hot Australian CPI is the catalyst most likely to deliver one. A soft CPI into a firm US PCE points the pair back through 0.7000 toward 0.6950.

AUD/USD hourly chart

Currency Hedger June 20, 2026 No Comments

The Euro Falls on its own rate hike

EUR/USD broke to a fresh multi-week low this week before steadying near a tentative floor.
The slide came despite the ECB’s first rate hike since 2023, a move forced by the energy shock rather than by strength.
With the eurozone economy contracting, the Euro stays chained to broad Dollar direction into next week’s US data.

The Euro did something this week that ought to be impossible: it fell in the same fortnight the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its first interest rate hike since 2023. EUR/USD slid to a fresh multi-week low near 1.1400 before clawing back to a tentative floor around 1.1450; the lesson is that not every rate hike is a vote of confidence. The ECB tightened because an energy shock forced its hand, not because the eurozone economy is firing. That distinction is why the single currency cannot turn a hawkish central bank into a rally.

A hike that smells like surrender

Look at what the ECB actually did and the bind becomes obvious. It raised the deposit rate for the first time in nearly three years while simultaneously cutting its growth forecasts and lifting its inflation projections, an unambiguous stagflation signal. Euro-area inflation has climbed to its highest in nearly three years on surging energy costs tied to disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, even as the bloc’s economy contracted in the first quarter. Tightening into that mix is a defensive move; currency markets know the difference between a central bank hiking from strength and one hiking because it has no choice.

Out-hawked across the Atlantic

Even on the narrow question of rate differentials, the Euro is losing. The ECB paired its hike with no-preset-path guidance, which markets read as a one-and-watch rather than the start of a campaign; German Bund yields barely budged. The Federal Reserve (Fed), by contrast, held at 3.75% but revised its dot plot higher, pricing toward a hike of its own from a position of relative economic strength, with the US Dollar Index parked at a 13-month high. When both sides lean hawkish, the currency attached to the stronger economy and the firmer conviction wins; right now that is unambiguously the Greenback.

A bounce on a short leash

The near-term picture is the one part of the Euro story that favours the bulls, and only just. Price has carved out a tentative floor near 1.1450, with the hourly Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) pushing into overbought after the bounce off the lows, a sign the immediate move is stretched. There is room for a corrective rally toward the 1.1500 area, though it stays on a short leash: the daily chart sits below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), clustered near 1.1600, with the broader trend still pointing lower.

A wall of ECB speakers and Tuesday’s still-contractionary flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) prints will not change that calculus; whatever bounce the Euro manages is unlikely to survive a hot reading from next Thursday’s US data, when the third estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) land together at 12:30 GMT.

Resistance: The 1.1500 area is the first test, then 1.1550; the heavier barrier is the 1.1600 zone, where the 50-day and 200-day EMA converge and any recovery would have to prove itself.

Support: The tentative floor near 1.1450 is the level bulls must defend. Below it sit the 1.1400 handle and this week’s low; a clean break there reopens the downtrend.

Bias: Tactically neutral with scope for a short-term bounce toward 1.1500 while 1.1450 holds, but bearish on any longer horizon. The Euro remains a hostage to the Dollar; a hot US PCE next week is the most likely trigger to drag it back to 1.1400 and beyond. Only a soft US inflation print gives the bounce real legs.

EUR/USD hourly chart

Currency Hedger June 20, 2026 No Comments

The Canadian Dollar ditches Crude Oil for Gold

USD/CAD pushed to a fresh 14-month high this week, dragging the Loonie to its weakest against the Greenback since early 2025.
The slide defies firm Crude Oil prices; the Loonie’s traditional link to Crude Oil has broken down and even turned negative.
The real drivers are a widening Canada-US rate gap and a six-week slide in Gold.

The textbook calls the Canadian Dollar a petro-currency, which means that with a Middle East war keeping Crude Oil bid, the Loonie should be holding its own. Instead it spent this week sliding to a fresh 14-month low against the Greenback, capping a run in which the US Dollar has closed higher in six of the last seven weeks. The textbook is wrong, at least for now: the Loonie has quietly stopped trading like a Crude Oil proxy, with its weakness driven by two forces that have nothing to do with the price of a barrel.

A petro-currency in name only

For years the Loonie moved with the price of a barrel; that relationship has quietly inverted. The rolling correlation between daily moves in the currency and Crude Oil has turned negative in recent months, a clean break from the historical norm. In its place, a less obvious driver has taken over: Gold. Canada is a major bullion producer; with Gold down for six straight weeks and well off its recent record, that slide has become a genuine weight on the currency. The market has swapped one commodity anchor for another; traders still watching only the barrel have missed it.

Two central banks moving apart

The second force is the one doing most of the damage: a widening gap between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC). The Fed held at 3.75% this month and revised its dot plot higher, with markets pricing a possible 2026 hike; the BoC, at 2.25%, is going nowhere. It held again this month, caught in a two-way bind between a soft domestic economy and fresh, energy-driven inflation, and has signalled no intention of moving. When one central bank is leaning toward hikes and the other is frozen, the rate spread does the talking; right now it points squarely against the Loonie. Speculative short positions on the currency have climbed to their highest in months as a result.

Outgunned, but not without a say

What makes the move striking is that this is not simply a story about Canada falling apart. The domestic picture is mixed rather than broken: a strong May jobs report sits alongside Friday’s soft retail sales; the Loonie’s slide owes more to relative positioning than to outright collapse. That also means the currency has a busier week ahead than the bears might like.

Canada’s own May Consumer Price Index (CPI) lands Monday at 12:30 GMT. With inflation already running near 3% on elevated energy costs, a hot print would feed the BoC’s inflation side and could lend the Loonie a rare bid; Governor Macklem then speaks Tuesday. The dominant event still sits south of the border: on Thursday at 12:30 GMT the US delivers its first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) third estimate alongside the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), with core PCE seen accelerating to 0.3% MoM. A hot US PCE widens the rate gap further and points USD/CAD higher still; only a genuinely hot Canadian CPI on Monday gives the Loonie much to fight back with.

Resistance: USD/CAD is pressing the 1.4200 handle after this week’s run; a clean break opens 1.4250 and then 1.4300, levels last seen well over a year ago.

Support: Initial support sits near 1.4100, then 1.4050; only a move back below 1.4000 would suggest the Loonie has found real footing.

Bias: Higher for USD/CAD while the Fed-BoC gap widens and Gold stays heavy, meaning further Loonie weakness is the base case. The one caution is positioning: the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is deep in overbought after a near-vertical climb; a sharp but shallow pullback toward 1.4100 would not surprise. A hot US PCE next week is the catalyst most likely to push the pair on toward 1.4250.

USD/CAD hourly chart

Currency Hedger June 19, 2026 No Comments

Trade of The Day – NOK/SEK

The NOKSEK closing price has remained below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (measured from January 13 to May 15) for the last five consecutive sessions.
The exchange rate failed to return above the middle Bollinger Band on the 14-day timeframe, despite yesterday’s declaration from Norges Bank indicating its intention to hike interest rates in the coming months.
Crude oil futures (OIL) have lost approximately 7.5% since the beginning of the week.

Recommendation

Position: Short (SELL) on NOKSEK at market price
Target Price (Take Profit; TP): 0.9740 (TP1), 0.9620 (TP2)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.9970

Source: xStation5

Opinion

NOKSEK broke its upward trend alongside the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict due to its tight correlation with oil prices (Norway remains one of the key net exporters of the commodity). The cross also failed to react significantly to the hawkish rhetoric from Norges Bank, which announced interest rate hikes in the coming months in the face of elevated CPI inflation (3.1% in May 2026). The rate remains in a downward trend (consistently trading between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands on the 14-day interval) despite the recent widening of the yield spread between 2-year Norwegian and Swedish government bonds.

This suggests that the exchange rate’s correlation with oil prices and the fading geopolitical risk premium remain the dominant drivers. Upside for the NOK may also be capped by the broader macroeconomic outlook—Norges Bank projects elevated inflation above target until 2029, alongside the risk of unemployment rising to pre-pandemic levels. Conversely, forecasts for Sweden point to accelerating GDP growth (1.8% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027; source: Eurostat) combined with falling inflation below 2% (1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027; source: Eurostat).

Methodology

This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the NOKSEK chart, a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (monetary policy in Norway and Sweden), and the exchange rate’s correlation with crude oil prices. The directional bias of the recommendation was determined using Bollinger Bands. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were established using Fibonacci retracements and price action (TP1 and TP2 at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibo levels of the latest upward wave; SL placed at the resistance of the last rebound prior to the trend reversal).

Currency Hedger June 19, 2026 No Comments

Chart of the day: GBP/CHF snaps back on retail sales recovery

The British pound is regaining momentum at the end of the week, driven by a stronger-than-expected batch of UK economic data.

This surprise surge in retail sales successfully halted sterling’s broad decline against most G10 currencies. Leading the recovery is the GBP/CHF pair, which broke cleanly above key moving averages to cement the pound’s robust positioning across Europe this Friday.

GBPCHF is exhibiting a bullish outlook, rebounding firmly to 1.0651 after finding support near the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The pair trades cleanly above its 10, 30, and 100-day EMAs, saving the upward trend. With the RSI at 56.7, there is plenty of room for further gains toward recent local highs. Source: xStation5

What’s Driving GBPCHF Today?

Sales Surprise on the Upside: Driven by the joint-third warmest May on record and retail promotions, UK retail sales volumes jumped 1.2% in May 2026, bouncing back from a 1.0% decline in April. This growth significantly outperformed economists’ forecasts, with annual sales rising 3.2%. Department and online stores performed particularly well, boosting the online sales share to 28.8%, though overall volumes still remain 0.4% below their pre-pandemic February 2020 levels.
Fragile Trend Sustainability: Over the three months to May 2026, sales volumes edged up 0.4%, supported by strong demand for tech products and outdoor items. However, long-term consumer confidence remains fragile. Shoppers are showing caution regarding big-ticket purchases due to cost-of-living pressures and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the conflict in Iran. Major supermarket groups like Tesco and Morrisons have already noted a distinct slowdown in sales growth since this conflict began.
Burnham’s Turning Point: Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s decisive parliamentary victory in Makerfield has cleared the way for a potential challenge against the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Keir Starmer, threatening fresh political instability in the UK. Positioned as a prime minister-in-waiting and heavily favored by party members, Burnham’s win severely weakens Starmer—who already faces resignation calls from a quarter of his lawmakers—and sets the stage for a high-stakes battle over the future direction of the Labour government.

Currency Hedger June 19, 2026 No Comments

Euro holds losses against British Pound following bright UK Retail Sales data

EUR/GBP retreated to the mid-range of the 0.8600s after rejection at one-month highs near 0.8685.
UK Retail Sales increased well beyond expectations in May.
Public Sector Net Borrowing has also risen against expectations, which might dent the Pound’s recovery.

The Euro (EUR) is pulling back against a stronger British Pound (GBP) on Friday, with the EUR/GBP pair trading at the 0.8665 area following rejection at one-month highs near 0.8685. UK Retail Sales figures released beat expectations in May, but the increase in government borrowing might have offset the positive impact on the GBP.

Retail consumption increased by 1.2% in the UK in May, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics, more than twice the 0.5% expected and following a 1% decline in April. Excluding fuel purchases, sales of all other products also increased by 1.2% after a 0.1% contraction in the previous month.

At the same time, National Statistics also revealed that Public Sector Net Borrowing rose to GBP 23.29 billion in May, from GBP 23.03 billion in April, against expectations of a decline to GBP 18.5 billion. These figures might increase concerns about the UK’s fiscal deficit and dent the Pound’s recovery.

German producer prices slow down in May

In the Eurozone, German Producer Prices Index (PPI) data showed that factory-gate inflation accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in May, up from 1.7% in April, but below the 2.5% rate expected. The Monthly PPI eased to 0.3% from 1.2% in the previous month.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) met market expectations and left interest rates on hold at 3.75, with two policymakers calling for a quarter-point rate hike. The central bank also lowered its inflation forecasts for the rest of the year, but warned that the impact of the energy shock on the UK economy remains uncertain.

Also on Thursday, the Labour Mayor of Manchester, Andrew Burnham, won the election in Makerfield, securing the parliamentary seat needed to challenge the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. The compact on the Pound, however, has been marginal so far.