- AUD/USD may depreciate as the US Dollar could find support, as three policy members dissented in favor of a rate hike.
- Australia’s 10-year yield fell to 4.9% as cooling June inflation reduced rate hike expectations.
- Markets cut the probability of a 2026 RBA rate increase to 50% following softer inflation data.
AUD/USD inches higher after two days of losses, trading around 0.6960 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair may face potential downside pressure as the US Dollar (USD) could gain strength following a hawkish interest rate pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Although the Fed kept rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range at its July policy meeting, an outcome widely anticipated by the markets, the decision revealed underlying hawkish sentiment.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari all dissented, advocating instead for a 25 basis point rate hike. Reinforcing this stance during the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that while the central bank will not offer forward guidance on future rate paths, it remains committed to taking all necessary actions to achieve its 2% inflation target.
Fed’s warsh doubles down on 2% goal, keeping Dollar bulls engaged
Warsh’s press conference tone is clearly more forceful than the established baseline, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 versus a historic 6/10, underscoring a firmer commitment to the inflation fight. The repeated insistence that “only one target and it is 2%” and that “inflation cannot be cured in 9 weeks” signals a resolute, patient stance on tightening conditions, even as Warsh highlights “impressive resilience” in the economy and solid labor markets. The emphasis on trend over short-term data, the rejection of any tolerance for a higher inflation target, and the pledge that the Committee “will not hesitate to act” collectively reinforce a hawkish bias supportive of the Dollar.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index jumped by +18.94 points to 147.58, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the stronger tone captured by the FXS Speechtracker. This elevated reading, well above the neutral 100 mark, suggests markets should continue to price a persistent anti-inflation stance, with upside risks for the Dollar as Warsh stresses resolve on delivering the 2% target.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) may encounter headwinds as Australia’s 10-year government bond yield retreats toward 4.9%, backing off multi-week highs following weaker inflation data. Headline inflation unexpectedly slowed to a four-month low of 3.8% in June, underperforming both May’s figures and market forecasts of 4.0%. Although inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%–3% target range, the cooler readings led markets to drastically slash expectations for another rate increase this year, dropping probabilities to around 50%, down from over 90% prior to the data release.
These softer economic readings have largely cemented expectations that the RBA will keep policy on hold at its upcoming August 11 meeting. However, the downside for the Australian Dollar may find some support, as the RBA governor recently cautioned that additional rate hikes cannot be entirely ruled out if necessary to return inflation to its target.
Australia inflation holds firm as RBA focus stays on underlying pressures
Strategists at BNY highlight that Australia’s inflation pulse showed little sign of easing in June, with “Australia’s headline CPI rose 3.8% y/y in June 2026, unchanged from May.” They add that underlying price pressures also remained stubborn, noting that “underlying inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, was steady at 3.6% y/y, also flat on the previous month.” This combination of unchanged headline and core readings underscores persistent inflation dynamics that keep attention firmly on RBA policy and the Aussie’s performance.
