Currency Hedger No Comments

Eur sticks to positive bias above 1.1600 as bulls await Fed rate decision

  • EUR/USD attracts some buyers for the third straight day as the US-Iran peace deal undermines the USD.
  • The ECB’s hawkish outlook benefits the shared currency and further lends support to the currency pair.
  • Traders, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision.

The EUR/USD pair trades with a positive bias for the third straight day and holds steady above the 1.1600 mark through the Asian session on Wednesday. Bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting before positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery from the 1.1500 psychological mark, or over a two-month low, touched last week.

The latest optimism over an interim peace deal between the US and Iran keep the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) on the defensive, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. The shared currency, on the other hand, draws support from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish signal following an interest rate hike for the first time in three years. In fact, the ECB raised its 2026 inflation projections to 3% amid prolonged energy shocks and broadening price pressures across the eurozone.

Furthermore, traders are still pricing in a roughly 40 basis points in additional hikes for 2026 by the ECB despite the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US and Iran agreed to a framework peace deal intended to end the war that began earlier in 2026. The initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) establishes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and sets the stage for technical negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. However, other details about the agreement remain scarce.

This, along with expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might still hike interest rates by 25 bps in December, holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and caps the upside for the EUR/USD pair. Hence, market focus will remain glued to the crucial Fed rate decision, the latest economic projections, and the so-called dot plot. Adding to this, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh’s comments during the post-meeting presser will be scrutinized for cues about the future policy path.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Indian Rupee remains flat as risk-on mood weighs on US Dollar

  • The Indian Rupee holds ground as oil prices continue to ease.
  • Indian shares opened higher but edged lower as caution grew ahead of the US Fed policy decision.
  • Traders expect a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during his first policy meeting on Wednesday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) holds ground after two days of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. However, the upside potential for the USD/INR pair could be capped in the near term as downward pressure on the Indian Rupee eases, supported by declining global oil prices.

Following recent policy interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists have notably upgraded their forecasts for the nation’s balance of payments. Most analysts now anticipate a small surplus, marking a sharp reversal from previous projections of a substantial deficit.

However, the true extent of any Rupee rally will ultimately hinge on the central bank’s comfort level. Experts suggest the RBI may strategically leverage the currency’s strength to pare down its massive foreign exchange forward book, which saw short-dollar positions balloon to a record $104 billion in March during efforts to defend the INR.

Indian equity indexes hold gains on Wednesday despite the prevailing market caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming policy decision. The US central bank is widely expected to maintain its cautious “wait-and-see” stance, keeping benchmark interest rates steady within the 3.50% to 3.75% range.

Nevertheless, market participants remain highly attentive, as traders expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to adopt a more hawkish tone during his first policy meeting later in the day. This cautious domestic sentiment follows a mixed session on Tuesday, where institutional data from the NSE revealed that foreign institutional investors sold shares worth INR 749.18 crore, while domestic institutional investors made modest purchases worth INR 6 lakhs.

Broader market sentiment also faces headwinds from lingering global uncertainties and geopolitical frictions. Industry experts express widespread skepticism regarding a swift economic rebound, warning that shipping and energy exports could take several weeks to fully recover from recent disruptions. Complicating the global outlook further, the Iran-backed group Hezbollah stated in Lebanon that Iran would likely refuse a final nuclear agreement unless Israel withdraws from Lebanese territory, adding a layer of geopolitical risk that continues to keep investors on edge.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends losses for the fifth successive day, trading around $75.20 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices declined as anticipation grew over a looming United States (US)-Iran peace deal that could significantly boost global supply.

The US and Iran are scheduled to sign an interim agreement in Switzerland this Friday, which would grant Tehran broad economic incentives and allow the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports. Furthermore, international tankers are expected to resume safe transit through the strategic Strait of Hormuz once the pact officially takes effect.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades near 94.50 above descending triangle bottom

USD/INR flattens after two days of losses, trading around 94.40 at the time of writing. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that spot price sits just slightly above the lower boundary of the descending triangle, indicating the “drumroll” moment of the pattern.

The flat lower boundary represents a major demand zone where buyers have historically stepped in to stop the bleeding. When the spot price hovers just above it, the market is testing whether those buyers still have the cash and the will to defend that floor.

The USD/INR pair maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential moving averages (EMAs). The clustering of these EMAs above the spot hints at a capped market, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests weak momentum, reinforcing the risk of further downside as long as price remains suppressed beneath these moving averages.

The immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the descending triangle around 94.30, while the initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 94.73, followed by the nine-day EMA at 94.90.

USD/INR: Daily Chart
Currency Hedger No Comments

Japanese Yen gains ground as traders await Fed rate decision

  • USD/JPY weakens to around 160.25 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • Fed is set to leave its interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the June meeting. 
  • BoJ hiked its policy rate by 25bps to 1.00% but gave no strong signal on the timing of the next move. 

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 160.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh later on Wednesday. 

The Fed is widely expected to stand pat on the interest rates at its June policy meeting. Traders will closely watch the statement, economic projections, and press conference for more hints about the US interest rate path later this year. 

“The Fed is…likely to signal a neutral bias for monetary policy going forward,” said Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.0% from 0.75% as expected. This marks the highest level since 1995. The decision came at a time when Japan had been struggling with a weak JPY and inflation that had started to creep up, partly due to the Iran war.

“While the press conference…contained some optimistic signals regarding the outlook for the Japanese economy, it failed to move the needle much regarding market expectations around the timing of the next BOJ policy move,” said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

Traders are on alert for any potential intervention from Japanese authorities to shore up the ailing currency. MUFG analysts said the Japanese Yen’s failure to strengthen after the hike keeps pressure on Japanese officials to intervene again.

Currency Hedger No Comments

US Dollar Index weakens to near 99.50 on US‑Iran peace deal optimism ahead of Fed rate decision

  • US Dollar Index softens to around 99.50 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
  • A US-Iran peace deal will be signed at Switzerland’s mountainside Burgenstock resort on Friday. 
  • Fed is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the June meeting. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.50 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY extends the decline amid optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Wednesday. 

US Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump may decide to release a preliminary deal to end the war with Iran before Friday, after the US president said the agreement had already been signed. Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will be open by Friday and that the full text of the peace deal will be released in a “formal setting.”

The Swiss foreign ministry confirmed that a US-Iran deal aimed at ending the Middle East war will be signed at Switzerland’s mountainside Burgenstock resort on Friday. Hopes of a peace agreement between the US and Iran could undermine a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar against its rivals. 

The Fed is due to announce its next policy decision on Wednesday. Economists expect the US central bank to keep its benchmark rate in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% as it waits to see how the war’s energy-price shock ripples through the economy. 

The focus will be on new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the handling of the press conference that follows the interest rate decision. Any hawkish comments from Fed officials could lift the DXY in the near term. 

Markets are now pricing in nearly a 64% chance of a US central bank interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/JPY – Could rebound toward 186.50 as bullish bias prevails

  • EUR/JPY cross may rise toward the all-time high of 187.95.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 60 indicates solid upward momentum.
  • The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 185.66.

EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 186.20 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning suggests the recent advance is supported by underlying demand.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 hints at firm but not yet overextended upside momentum. Additionally, the technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross may explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 188.30.

On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 185.66, followed by the 50-day EMA of 185.18. A break below these moving averages would cause a bearish shift, exposing the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 184.70. Further declines could push the EUR/JPY cross to test its nearly four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, with further declines targeting the six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.01%-0.08%0.02%0.05%0.01%-0.13%
EUR0.03%0.01%-0.06%0.03%0.08%0.08%-0.10%
GBP0.01%-0.01%-0.06%0.03%0.11%0.05%-0.08%
JPY0.08%0.06%0.06%0.08%0.12%0.05%-0.02%
CAD-0.02%-0.03%-0.03%-0.08%0.04%-0.00%-0.11%
AUD-0.05%-0.08%-0.11%-0.12%-0.04%-0.02%-0.13%
NZD-0.01%-0.08%-0.05%-0.05%0.00%0.02%-0.11%
CHF0.13%0.10%0.08%0.02%0.11%0.13%0.11%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/USD – Consolidates above 0.7050; 100-day SMA holds the key ahead of Fed

  • AUD/USD remains on the back foot for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through.
  • The RBA’s hawkish tilt supports the Aussie, while the US-Iran peace deal undermines the USD.
  • Traders seem hesitant ahead of the crucial FOMC rate decision amid a bearish technical setup.

The AUD/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 0.7050 level through the Asian session on Wednesday amid mixed cues.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a hawkish hold on Tuesday and warned that further rate increases are possible if inflation remains stubbornly elevated, which acts as a tailwind for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Furthermore, an interim US-Iran peace agreement undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and supports the AUD/USD pair. Traders, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the highly anticipated FOMC policy decision before placing fresh directional bets.

The AUD/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term tone 0.7085-0.7090 confluence – comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June downfall. Adding to this, momentum oscillators hint that a short-term downward trend is still in play. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 43, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero and the signal line, with the histogram remaining slightly negative.

On the topside, the immediate hurdle is clustered around the 0.7085-0.7090 confluence, with further barriers seen at the 50% level at 0.7124 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7159. A sustained break above these would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and expose the 78.6% retracement at 0.7209 and the swing high near 0.7272. On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 23.6% Fibo. at 0.7046, ahead of the monthly low near 0.6976, where a break would reinforce the broader decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD
Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY – Constructive bias prevails above 113.00, but neutral RSI spurs consolidation

  • AUD/JPY edges lower to near 113.25 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • BoJ hiked interest rates by 25 bps to 1.00%, while RBA held rates steady at 4.35% at their June policy meeting. 
  • The cross keeps bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term with neutral RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.58; the initial downside target to watch is 113.23.  

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.25 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to their highest level in more than three decades. 

The BoJ decided to raise the short-term interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.0% from 0.75% after concluding the two-day monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday, as widely expected. 

According to the Monetary Policy Statement, the board member will continue to increase the policy rate in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% after its June monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. This is a pause following three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) rate hikes earlier this year. Despite leaving the interest rate unchanged, the board members signaled that further rate hikes might be necessary to achieve its goals.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a constructive bias as spot remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) while pressing into the Bollinger Bands’ upper half. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 hints at consolidative rather than overbought conditions, suggesting any pullbacks could stay contained above underlying trend support.

On the topside, a sustained break over the Bollinger SMA middle band at 113.58 would open the door toward the Bollinger upper band resistance near 114.90. On the downside, initial support aligns with the recent pivot zone around 113.23, followed by the Bollinger lower band at 112.25 and then the 100-day SMA near 112.00, where a deeper retreat would need to find buyers to maintain the prevailing upward bias.