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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds gains above 185.50 near nine-day EMA support

  • EUR/JPY may rise toward the ascending triangle’s upper boundary near 186.10.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index is around 53 and signals steady momentum.
  • The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.46.

EUR/JPY edges higher after three days of losses, trading around 185.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is holding above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which reinforces a mildly bullish near-term bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is pressing into the upper end of its recent range while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 suggests constructive but not overstretched momentum. The daily chart technical analysis shows the currency cross is remaining within the ascending triangle, signalling aggressive buying pressure.

The EUR/JPY cross may find the initial resistance at the triangle’s upper boundary around 186.10. A decisive break above the triangle could trigger a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, immediate support sits at the nine-day EMA of 185.46, with additional backing at the 50-day EMA of 185.12 and the lower edge of the ascending triangle near 185.00. A breakdown below the triangle pattern would undermine the bullish setup, exposing the EUR/JPY cross to deeper downside toward the March 16 five-month low of 181.87 and the seven-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.04%-0.08%0.00%-0.01%-0.16%-0.41%0.00%
EUR0.04%-0.04%0.06%0.03%-0.10%-0.37%0.04%
GBP0.08%0.04%0.11%0.08%-0.05%-0.33%0.09%
JPY0.00%-0.06%-0.11%-0.01%-0.15%-0.43%0.00%
CAD0.00%-0.03%-0.08%0.01%-0.14%-0.40%0.01%
AUD0.16%0.10%0.05%0.15%0.14%-0.27%0.14%
NZD0.41%0.37%0.33%0.43%0.40%0.27%0.41%
CHF-0.01%-0.04%-0.09%-0.00%-0.01%-0.14%-0.41%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Offshore Yuan Hits 1-Month High

The offshore yuan traded around 6.76 per dollar on Tuesday, reaching its strongest level in a month, supported by firmer official guidance from the People’s Bank of China. The central bank set the daily midpoint rate at 6.7917 per dollar, 31 pips stronger than the previous fixing of 6.7948. The latest move signaled continued support for the currency, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Providing additional support, the State Council emphasized accelerating policy implementation and improving the efficiency of fiscal spending, underscoring its commitment to bolstering growth after Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3%, the weakest pace in more than three years and well below Beijing’s annual target range of 4.5% to 5%. Investor focus is now turning to the Communist Party of China’s upcoming Politburo meeting later this month for signals on the economic policy agenda for the second half of the year.

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Japanese Yen consolidates against US Dollar amid uncertainty over future of Middle East

  • The Japanese Yen trades calmly around 162.50 against the US Dollar amid uncertainty over the future of the Middle East.
  • US President Trump will either accept a 10-day ceasefire or call for a joint full-scale military campaign against Iran.
  • Investors await the Japan National CPI data for June.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 162.50 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, closer to its multi-decade high of 162.84. The USD/JPY pair will likely remain sideways as investors seek fresh cues regarding whether the United States (US) and Iran will announce a ceasefire or will continue exchanging attacks.

In the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 101.00.

According to a report from Axios, US President Donald Trump will either accept the 10-day ceasefire with Iran and resume negotiations towards an interim deal or call for a joint full-scale military campaign with Israel against Iran.

On Monday, a senior Iranian official confirmed receiving a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire from mediators to resume talks on an interim deal.

On the domestic front, investors await Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Friday. Investors will pay close attention to the inflation data to get cues regarding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy outlook. The National CPI ex. Fresh Food is expected to arrive at 1.6% Year-on-Year (YoY), higher than 1.4% in May.

Meanwhile, the next key trigger for the US Dollar will be the preliminary S&P Global PMI data for July, which will be released on Thursday.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears retain control below 200-SMA on H4; break of 1.1400 awaited

  • EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction as traders keenly await the crucial ECB meeting.
  • Reviving inflation fears bolster Fed hike bets and underpin the USD, capping the upside for the pair.
  • Last week’s failure near the 200- SMA on H4 favors bears and backs the case for further depreciation.

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating during the Asian session on Tuesday and trading just above the 1.1400 mark, or a four-day low touched the previous day. Market participants seem hesitant and keenly await the highly-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

In the meantime, energy-driven inflation fears bolster US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and support the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating US-Iran tensions. This could act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from a four-week high, touched last Wednesday, has run its course.

Spot prices keep a bearish tone following last week’s failure near the 1.1480-1.1485 region, which coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with a negative reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.95 stays under the midline.

Momentum indicators together suggest waning bullish momentum and reinforce the downside bias while the EUR/USD pair remains capped beneath the 200-period SMA. This, in turn, backs the case for an eventual break below the 1.1400 round figure and a further decline towards retesting the year-to-date low, around the 1.1325 region, touched on June 24.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period SMA around 1.1480. A sustained move above this level is needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more constructive outlook. Nevertheless, the sub-50 RSI and negative MACD suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains to the downside.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD
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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground above 113.50, bullish trend holds above 100-day SMA

  • AUD/JPY gains traction to near 113.85 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross maintains a constructive tone above the 100-day SMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 114.10; the first downside target to watch is 113.10. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.85 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) due to the interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, fears of possible intervention from Japanese authorities might cap the upside for the cross. 

After delivering three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) hikes earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% at its June policy meeting.

Economists warned that rising oil and fuel prices could cement a fourth interest rate rise this year if US President Donald Trump’s renewed conflict with Iran is not resolved within a week. 

Traders have raised their bets on an RBA rate hike since airstrikes resumed last week, now pricing in nearly a 23% odds of a hike in August and more than a 50% chance by December, according to the Guardian. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle band, keeping the broader uptrend intact. Price is advancing toward the Bollinger upper band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 60 suggests firm but not overstretched upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the Bollinger Bands’ upper band at 114.10. The next hurdle is located at the May 13 high of 114.74, en route to the 115.00 psychological level. 

On the downside, initial support is seen at the July 20 low of 113.10. The next contention level to watch is the 100-day SMA at 112.75, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 112.55, with a deeper cushion coming in at the lower band near 111.05 should a corrective pullback develop.

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USD/CAD Price Forecast: Intraday positive move stalls ahead of 1.4100 confluence hurdle

  • USD/CAD builds on the previous day’s solid recovery from an over one-month trough.
  • The fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and backs the case for further gains.
  • A move beyond the 1.4100 confluence is needed to reaffirm the constructive setup.

The USD/CAD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and recovers further from its lowest level since June 17, around the 1.4000 psychological mark touched the previous day. Spot prices advanced to a one-week high during the Asian session, though the intraday move up stalls ahead of the 1.4100 mark amid mixed fundamental cues.

The soft Canadian consumer inflation figures on Monday reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will keep interest rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs at least once in 2026 amid concerns about energy-driven inflation. Apart from this, US President Donald Trump’s new tariff of 50% on Canadian products undermines the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations and an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). This is seen as another factor supporting the currency pair. That said, elevated oil prices, bolstered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the commodity-linked Loonie and cap gains for the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the highest level since April 2025 favors bullish traders. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 56. Momentum indicators together hint at recovering upside pressure. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 1.4100 confluence before positioning for any further near-term appreciation.

The said handle comprises the 38.2% Fibo. level and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, above which the USD/CAD pair could climb to the 50.0% retracement at 1.4126 and the 61.8% level at 1.4155. On the downside, support emerges at the 23.6% retracement near 1.4059, with a more substantial structural floor at the Fibonacci anchor around 1.4000, where a deeper pullback could pause if selling pressure resumes.

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/CAD

Canadian Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies this week. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.09%0.09%0.10%0.40%-0.59%-0.50%0.21%
EUR-0.09%0.01%-0.06%0.31%-0.67%-0.60%0.11%
GBP-0.09%-0.01%-0.07%0.30%-0.65%-0.61%0.15%
JPY-0.10%0.06%0.07%0.39%-0.64%-0.65%0.22%
CAD-0.40%-0.31%-0.30%-0.39%-0.94%-1.03%-0.15%
AUD0.59%0.67%0.65%0.64%0.94%0.07%0.84%
NZD0.50%0.60%0.61%0.65%1.03%-0.07%0.76%
CHF-0.21%-0.11%-0.15%-0.22%0.15%-0.84%-0.76%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

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British Pound struggles as traders evaluate BoE policy, UK political developments

  • GBP/USD could further depreciate amid differing inflation trends and rate expectations between the BoE and Fed.
  • Markets are monitoring fiscal strategy and cabinet choices under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
  • Upcoming UK labor, inflation, and retail data will dictate near-term Sterling volatility and direction.

GBP/USD steadies after three days of losses, trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. After recently surging toward two-month highs near 1.3550, the pair has moderated as foreign exchange traders evaluate shifting monetary policies between the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) alongside political developments in the United Kingdom (UK).

From a macroeconomic perspective, central bank policy divergence remains the central pillar steering the exchange rate. While market participants anticipate eventual rate adjustments on both sides of the Atlantic, subtle differences in inflation stickiness and labor market strength determine relative yield appeal.

Domestic economic conditions in the UK are facing scrutiny as upcoming labor, inflation, and retail sales data will clarify whether the Bank of England can afford to hold monetary policy restrictive or if easing must accelerate. However, persistently high oil prices kept inflation fears alive, strengthening expectations that the UK central bank will hold interest rates elevated for longer.

As markets gauge the monetary policy trajectory, investors are also processing a leadership shift in Westminster following Andy Burnham’s elevation to Prime Minister. Taking the helm as Britain’s seventh Prime Minister in a decade, and second for Labour since 2024. He reaffirmed fiscal discipline while hinting at relief for taxpayers through a potential raise in the personal allowance. Attention now turns to his Treasury appointment, where reports point to Shabana Mahmood as a frontrunner for chancellor.”

Until clearer economic signals emerge from both central banks and upcoming growth figures, the GBP/USD pair is likely to oscillate, anchored by shifting interest rate expectations and broader global risk appetites.

In the US, economic indicators continue to present a mixed backdrop for the US Dollar (USD). Softening inflation trends have kept Federal Reserve rate cuts on the radar, preventing sharp Greenback rallies and offering baseline support for the British Pound (GBP). However, lingering geopolitical tensions in energy markets and steady global risk sentiment have provided episodic support to the dollar as a safe-haven asset, keeping upside moves in check.

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Australian Dollar strengthens above 0.7000 despite rising US-Iran tensions

  • AUD/USD gains ground to around 0.7010 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
  • The US launches further strikes on Iran. 
  • The RBA is in a “wait-and-see” mode as it monitors key economic data ahead of its next policy meeting. 

The AUD/USD pair drifts higher to near 0.7010 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. The Australian employment report will take center stage later on Thursday. 

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Monday that it completed more strikes against Iran, hours after US President Donald Trump warned that Tehran would pay for the deaths of three American soldiers over the past few days, per CNN. 

Iranian state media reported explosions across southern Iran, including on Qeshm Island and in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, Isfahan and Konarak. Kuwait also said that its air defences were activated against Iranian missile and drone attacks. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could weigh on riskier assets such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. 

After delivering three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) hikes earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% at its June policy meeting. The Australian central bank is currently in a “wait-and-see” mode to evaluate how its tightening cycle is impacting sticky core inflation and a cooling domestic economy.

The ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures implied a 16% chance of an RBA rate hike in August, with a roughly 50% to 60% possibility of one more hike by December 2026.