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NZD/USD – Kiwi corrects lower and tests support at 0.5965

  • NZD/USD pulls back to 0.5965 after rejection at the 0.6000 area.
  • Fresh US-Iran hostilities are casting doubt about a fragile ceasefire.
  • Upbeat manufacturing data from China provided some support to the NZD.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, retreating to session lows of 0.5965 from highs a few pips below 0.6000. Manufacturing data from China has been supportive, although the skirmishes between the US and Iran are feeding a certain degree of cautiousness at the week’s opening.

The US military reported a new wave of airstrikes on Iran’s military sites, and Tehran said that they targeted a US base that was used to launch attacks on the country. US President Donald Trump keeps pondering whether to sign a ceasefire extension or not, and meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping Oil near $100 and straining New Zealand’s Oil-importing economy.

Technical Analysis: On a bearish correction, amid a broader bullish trend

Chart Analysis NZD/USD


NZD/USD trades at 0.5971, with price action suggesting that the pair might be on the fourth wave of a 5-wave (Elliott Wave) bullish cycle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 68, after pulling back from heavily overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, all in all suggesting that pullbacks are likely to find buyers.

Immediate resistance is located at the 0.5995 session high, ahead of the February 26 high, near 0.6015. Further up, the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of last week’s rally, at 0.6036, and the mid-February highs around 0.6050 looks like a plausible target for a potential fifth wave.

A break below 0.5965, on the contrary, would expose the May 27 high, near 0.5915. Below here, the May 28 low, near 0.5865, would come next

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%-0.08%0.14%0.04%0.01%0.30%0.23%
EUR-0.05%-0.11%0.07%-0.01%0.03%0.27%0.17%
GBP0.08%0.11%0.19%0.10%0.07%0.35%0.27%
JPY-0.14%-0.07%-0.19%-0.08%-0.10%0.19%0.09%
CAD-0.04%0.00%-0.10%0.08%-0.03%0.26%0.18%
AUD-0.01%-0.03%-0.07%0.10%0.03%0.23%0.19%
NZD-0.30%-0.27%-0.35%-0.19%-0.26%-0.23%-0.08%
CHF-0.23%-0.17%-0.27%-0.09%-0.18%-0.19%0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

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Euro holds losses against British Pound after Germany’s Retail Sales data

  • EUR/GBP softens to around 0.8655 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • German Retail Sales declined by 0.3% MoM in April. 
  • BoE’s Bailey signalled there was no urgency to raise interest rates.

The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory near 0.8655 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Euro (EUR) remains weak against the British Pound (GBP) following the upbeat German Retail Sales data. The preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) from the Eurozone will be released on Tuesday. 

Data released by Destatis on Monday showed that German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, fell 0.3% MoM in April. This figure followed a fall of 0.3% (revised from -2.0%) and came in better than the market expectation of a 0.4% decrease. 

On an annualized basis, Retail Sales dropped 0.3% in April, versus the prior release of a 0.2% decline (revised from -2.0%). The German economic data fails to boost the EUR in an immediate reaction.   

On the UK’s front, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that the UK central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates while the outcome of the Iran war remains uncertain and the UK’s growth rate stays weak.  “We have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required,” said Bailey. 

Money market futures now imply 32 basis points (bps) of tightening this year, one quarter-point hike, and roughly a 30% chance of a second, according to Reuters. 

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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Yen languishes amid growing BoJ rate hike uncertainty

  • USD/JPY rises to near 159.45 as BoJ rate hike uncertainty weakens Japanese Yen.
  • The BoJ SoP of the April meeting showed that most policymakers expressed the need to raise interest rates in the near term.
  • Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.12% higher at around 159.45 during the early European trading session on Monday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) broadly underperforms amid uncertainty regarding whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting on June 16.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%-0.10%0.13%0.07%-0.07%0.28%0.21%
EUR-0.05%-0.14%0.04%0.02%-0.07%0.24%0.14%
GBP0.10%0.14%0.19%0.15%0.02%0.38%0.27%
JPY-0.13%-0.04%-0.19%-0.03%-0.18%0.18%0.08%
CAD-0.07%-0.02%-0.15%0.03%-0.15%0.21%0.12%
AUD0.07%0.07%-0.02%0.18%0.15%0.30%0.25%
NZD-0.28%-0.24%-0.38%-0.18%-0.21%-0.30%-0.09%
CHF-0.21%-0.14%-0.27%-0.08%-0.12%-0.25%0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Higher oil prices due to the Middle East crisis-led energy supply shock have raised uncertainty over the Japan’s economic outlook.

Former BoJ Deputy Governor and current member of Japan’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, Masazumi Wakatabe, said last week said in a meeting that it is important to understand whether the economy can withstand tighter monetary conditions, Reuters reported.

However, the BoJ Summary of Opinions (SoP) of the April policy meeting showed that a majority of policymakers supported an interest rate hike in the near term, while warning of high inflation risks.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher at the start of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data week. Investors will closely monitor the data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades higher at around 159.45 at press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.84, keeping the recent uptrend structure intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, which suggests buyers still retain the initiative while upside momentum is steady rather than stretched.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 158.84, where a daily close below would hint at a deeper corrective phase and expose lower levels on the chart towards 158.00. On the upside, the pair could advance towards an almost two-year high of 160.73 if it manages to decisively break above the May 28 high at 159.65.

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Indian Rupee extends gains at the start of RBI policy week

  • The Indian Rupee rises at open against the US Dollar at the start of the RBI policy and the US NFP week.
  • Oil prices rebound due to the exchange of attacks between Israel and Lebanon.
  • The RBI is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Friday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a positive note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy week. The USD/INR pair slides to near 94.78 as the Indian currency strengthens further amid solid hopes over the United States (US)-Iran permanent peace deal, even as oil prices have bounced back.

At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 2% higher to near $89.00 after registering over-a-month low at $85.41 on Friday. Theoretically, currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform when oil prices recover.

Oil prices have regained ground, following attacks from Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in Lebanon on Iran-backed Hezbollah, which renewed fears of an energy supply crisis.

US President Trump revises terms for Iran deal

The comments from US and Iranian officials clearly state that negotiations toward a permanent peace deal are ongoing, and Washington doesn’t want Tehran to have nuclear weapons in any way.

US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News over the weekend that Washington wants to make sure Iran neither develops nuclear weapons nor purchases them before reaching a deal, adding that he has inculcated tougher terms for Iran relating to nukes and the Strait of Hormuz. “So now [the agreement] says, ‘We will not develop or in any way purchase a military weapon,” Trump said.

After US President Trump’s interview, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that negotiations with Washington were ongoing, and any deal could not be judged before a definitive outcome is reached, Reuters reported.

RBI policy and India’s Q1 GDP data awaited

This week, key triggers for the Indian currency will be the RBI’s monetary policy announcement and the Q1 GDP data, which will be released on Friday. According to the latest Reuters poll, the RBI will hold its key Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25% and deliver a hawkish stance on the monetary policy outlook, as high oil prices due to the energy supply crisis have prompted inflationary pressures globally.

The poll also showed that a majority of economists anticipated at least one interest rate hike by the year-end.

Over the weekend, India’s Finance Ministry warned that a depreciating Indian Rupee, higher energy prices, and below-average expected monsoon pose a threat to nation’s inflation outlook.

US NFP will be key trigger for US Dollar

The US Dollar starts the week with a mild bullish tone, with investors awaiting key US labor market and economic activity data releases, especially the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data, which will be released on Friday.

The impact of the US NFP data is expected to be limited on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, unless there is a dramatic change, as the latest comments from policymakers have shown that they are more concerned about high inflation than weak job demand.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR settles below 20-day EMA

USD/INR trades lower at around 94.78, holding below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.3677 and keeping a mild bearish near-term bias.

The pair has slipped away from recent highs, and with price capped beneath this short-term EMA, rallies appear vulnerable to selling while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.7 drifts below the neutral 50 line, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 95.37, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way toward 96.00. Looking down, the pair could extend its decline towards May 7 low at around 94.00

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GBP/USD Consolidates around mid-1.3400s amid firm USD, cautious setup

  • GBP/USD lacks any firm intraday directional bias and oscillates in a narrow range on Monday.
  • Geopolitical uncertainties and hawkish Fed expectations underpin the USD, capping spot prices.
  • The technical setup, too, warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful upside.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its goodish recovery from a one-and-a-half-week low, touched last Thursday, and oscillates in a narrow range around mid-1.3400s at the start of a new week. The US Dollar (USD) regains some positive traction amid the uncertainty over a potential US-Iran peace deal and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for spot prices.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is undermined by expectations for a delayed rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE), especially after softer inflation figures and an unexpected rise in the Unemployment Rate. Traders, however, opt to wait for this week’s important US macro releases and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s appearances before positioning for the next leg of a directional move for the GBP/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices hold a capped tone below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which should continue to act as overhead supply. However, the rising trend-line support around 1.3356 underpins the broader advance. Meanwhile, momentum indicators are mildly constructive, yet signaling at stabilizing downside pressure rather than a decisive bullish shift for the GBP/USD pair.

In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering above the 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive. This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the 1.3500 psychological mark (200-period SMA). A sustained move above this barrier would be needed to reopen the path toward higher highs.

On the downside, the next notable support aligns with the prior uptrend support line around 1.3356, where buyers would be expected to emerge on a deeper pullback. A convincing break below that zone would suggest a more meaningful deterioration of the medium-term bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.09%-0.05%0.13%0.07%-0.03%0.31%0.27%
EUR-0.09%-0.12%0.00%-0.02%-0.07%0.23%0.17%
GBP0.05%0.12%0.15%0.11%-0.01%0.33%0.28%
JPY-0.13%0.00%-0.15%-0.03%-0.14%0.21%0.14%
CAD-0.07%0.02%-0.11%0.03%-0.11%0.23%0.18%
AUD0.03%0.07%0.00%0.14%0.11%0.29%0.28%
NZD-0.31%-0.23%-0.33%-0.21%-0.23%-0.29%-0.05%
CHF-0.27%-0.17%-0.28%-0.14%-0.18%-0.28%0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower from upper descending channel top around 186.00

  • EUR/JPY may retest the upper boundary of the descending channel around 186.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 57 suggests upward momentum should persist.
  • The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA at 185.33.

EUR/JPY steadies after six days of gains, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The alignment of price over short- and medium-term moving averages hints at sustained underlying demand, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting upside pressure could persist as long as these floors remain intact.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is positioned near the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern around 186.00. The sustained break above the channel would indicate bullish confirmation. Further advance would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.33, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.98. A break below moving averages would revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by nearly six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.10%-0.04%0.13%0.08%-0.02%0.31%0.28%
EUR-0.10%-0.12%0.00%-0.02%-0.07%0.23%0.16%
GBP0.04%0.12%0.15%0.10%-0.02%0.33%0.27%
JPY-0.13%0.00%-0.15%-0.03%-0.13%0.21%0.14%
CAD-0.08%0.02%-0.10%0.03%-0.11%0.23%0.18%
AUD0.02%0.07%0.02%0.13%0.11%0.28%0.27%
NZD-0.31%-0.23%-0.33%-0.21%-0.23%-0.28%-0.05%
CHF-0.28%-0.16%-0.27%-0.14%-0.18%-0.27%0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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CAD weakens as firmer USD counter recovering Oil prices

  • USD/CAD gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a pickup in the USD demand.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty and hawkish Fed bets continue to act as a tailwind for the Greenback.
  • Rebounding Oil prices offset dismal Canadian GDP, underpinning the Loonie and capping gains.

The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers for the second consecutive day and reclaims the 1.3800 mark during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and remain below the highest level since April 13, near the 1.3870 region, touched last week amid a combination of diverging forces.

The uncertainty over US-Iran talks to end a three-month-old conflict and Israel’s incursion into Lebanon keeps geopolitical risk in play, underpinning the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. In fact, differences over Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate efforts to reach a deal. Moreover, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, stated that the country will not accept any agreement until its national rights are fully secured.

Adding to this, reports suggest that the US has hardened its negotiating position with Iran. This, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year, assists the USD to build on Friday’s modest bounce from a two-week low. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, is undermined by dismal domestic GDP figures, which showed that the economy contracted at 0.1% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2026, and further supports the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, the latest development surrounding the Middle East crisis triggers a goodish recovery in Crude Oil prices, from over a one-month low touched on Friday. This, in turn, helps limit the downside for the commodity-linked Loonie and might keep a lid on any further appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so.

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Swiss Franc weakens ahead of Q1 GDP data release

  • USD/CHF rises as the Swiss Franc weakens ahead of key Swiss Retail, GDP, and PMI data.
  • The US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand as investors closely monitor fluid US-Iran peace negotiations.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty intensified after Israel ordered its troops to advance further into Lebanon.

USD/CHF gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 0.7830 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair gains ground as the Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens ahead of the release of key economic data including, Swiss Real Retail Sales for April, Q1 Gross Domestic Product, and May’s SVME – Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Traders will shift their focus on the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI, which provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector.

The USD/CHF pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) maintains its strength on increased safe-haven demand, driven by market participants closely assessing the highly fluid developments surrounding United States (US)-Iran peace negotiations.

US President Donald Trump seeks to alter and reinforce several key terms of the proposal aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. According to the BBC, these requested changes specifically target regulations surrounding the strategic Strait of Hormuz and the mandatory removal of highly enriched uranium.

Axios further reported that Trump wants to tighten multiple points of the deal he deems critical, particularly the handling and disposal of Iran’s nuclear material. A senior US official noted that Trump has been briefed that a formal response from Iran regarding these adjusted terms could take up to three days.

The geopolitical uncertainty continues to increase after Israel has ordered its troops to advance further into Lebanon, marking a tactical escalation in its conflict with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. The military push comes despite a ceasefire agreement announced more than six weeks ago, severely threatening to unravel earlier diplomatic progress.