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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejected at 100-day SMA, eyes on 0.7800

  • USD/CHF fails at 100-day SMA, signaling resistance remains intact.
  • RSI turns lower, confirming growing bearish momentum pressure.
  • Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.

USD/CHF dropped on Friday but finished the week with gains of over 0.35%, trading at 0.7841 as market participants grew confident that US-Iran talks could resume over the weekend to resolve the conflict.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF appears poised to remain in a consolidation within the 0.7800-0.7900 range. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests further downside, as the index is bearish and pointing lower.

Price action suggests the uptrend might be pausing after hitting a nine-day high of 0.7877, but closing near the 50-day SMA at 0.7840 and failing to clear key resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.7863 open the door to further downside.

If market mood remains optimistic, the USD/CHF could test lower levels, with the first area of interest at 0.7800. On further weakness, April 17 low of 0.7775 ─the last cycle low─, would be the next key support ahead of clearing the path towards the March 10 daily log of 0.7748, ahead of February’s 27 daily low of 0.7672.

On the other hand, if buyers reclaim the 100-day SMA, the next line of resistance would be the 0.7900 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 0.7936 ahead of 0.8000.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.15%-0.35%0.35%-0.14%-0.38%-0.34%0.43%
EUR-0.15%-0.51%0.00%-0.27%-0.52%-0.56%0.28%
GBP0.35%0.51%2.17%0.26%0.02%-0.02%0.79%
JPY-0.35%0.00%-2.17%-0.51%-0.67%-0.71%0.04%
CAD0.14%0.27%-0.26%0.51%-0.13%-0.21%0.55%
AUD0.38%0.52%-0.02%0.67%0.13%0.02%0.79%
NZD0.34%0.56%0.02%0.71%0.21%-0.02%0.77%
CHF-0.43%-0.28%-0.79%-0.04%-0.55%-0.79%-0.77%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

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Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts: The pair bounced off the key technical support near 1.1660 Mid-term trend remains upward Recommendation: Trade: Long position on EURUSD at market price Target: 1.1830, 1.1900 Stop: 1.1600

Opinion : EURUSD has been trading in an upward trend recently. Looking at the H4 interval, one can see that the recent downward correction reached the key support, where buyers appeared .The area 1.1660-1.1670 is marked with previous price reactions, 200-period moving average, as well as lower limit of 1:1 structure. According to the classic technical analysis and Overbalance methodology, continuation of the upward move looks to be the base case scenario. We recommend going long EURUSD at market price with two targets: 1.1830 and 1.1900. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.1600. Source: xStation5

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USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.3700 to test nine-day EMA

  • USD/CAD may fall toward the descending channel support at 1.3560.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index falls to 44, signaling strengthening bearish momentum.
  • The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3714.

USD/CAD continues its winning streak for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.3710 during the early European hours on Friday. However, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is remaining within the descending channel pattern, signaling a persistent bearish bias.

The USD/CAD pair holds a modest bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped under the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The pair has been fading from last month’s highs while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips to 44, hinting at strengthening bearish momentum and leaving the downside vulnerable as long as price trades beneath these overlapping EMA barriers.

On the downside, the USD/CAD pair may navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.3560. A sustained break below the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to fall toward 1.3473, the lowest since September 2024.

The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3714, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3750, aligned with the upper descending channel boundary. Further advances above this confluence resistance zone would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the USD/CAD pair to explore the region around the four-month high of 1.3967, reached in December 2025.

USD/CAD: Daily Chart

Canadian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.04%-0.03%0.08%0.10%0.12%0.16%
EUR-0.06%-0.01%0.00%0.03%0.03%0.06%0.10%
GBP-0.04%0.00%-2.13%0.04%0.06%0.09%0.11%
JPY0.03%0.00%2.13%0.11%0.12%0.14%0.17%
CAD-0.08%-0.03%-0.04%-0.11%0.00%0.02%0.07%
AUD-0.10%-0.03%-0.06%-0.12%0.00%0.01%0.05%
NZD-0.12%-0.06%-0.09%-0.14%-0.02%-0.01%0.04%
CHF-0.16%-0.10%-0.11%-0.17%-0.07%-0.05%-0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP remains stalled below 0.8680 following strong UK Retail Sales data

  • EUR/GBP recovery from 0.8654 lows remains capped below 0.8680.
  • UK Retail Sales beat expectations in March, but mainly due to fuel sales.
  • The stalemate in Iran keeps the EUR and the GBP vulnerable against the US Dollar.

The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, trading at 0.8675 at the time of writing, with resistance at the 0.8680 area capping Thursday’s rebound from 0.8654 lows. The strong UK retail consumption data, which has shown a larger-than-expected rebound in March, has failed to make any significant impact on the pair so far. 

Data released by National Statistics on Friday revealed that UK Retail Sales rose by 0.7% in March, following a 0.6% contraction in February, and beating expectations of a 0.2% gain. The core Retail Sales, excluding fuel and automobile sales, however, rose at a modest 0.2% pace in March, in line with the market expectations, also after a 0.6% decline in the previous month.

Higher energy costs are a concern for UK businesses and consumers

On Thursday, preliminary UK business activity showed that both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to expand at healthy levels, but costs reached their highest levels since records began, clouding the outlook for future economic activity.

Later in the day, the GfK Consumer Confidence index deteriorated to its lowest levels in three years. UK consumers have grown more pessimistic, wary that prices will continue growing amid the energy shock triggered by Iran’s war and that mortgage costs will increase, assuming that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates. These figures hurt the Pound and provided some support to a weak Euro.

In Europe, the focus on Friday is on the German IFO business climate data, which is also expected to have deteriorated in April, weighed by the higher costs of energy.

On the geopolitical front, the peace process between Iran and the US remains stalled while tensions between the two countries grow. Iran released footage of a seizure of a cargo vessel on the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy any ship mining the waterway. The escalating tensions and the absence of news about the new round of talks, scheduled for this week, are weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar.

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Currency Talk – AUDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for AUDCAD, NZDUSD, and USDJPY?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

AUDCAD

Since late March, AUDCAD has been trending upward. The key level remains the support at 0.9755, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern, as well as from previous local peaks. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the uptrend remains in effect. However, it is worth noting the lack of a clear demand reaction—further tests of this support level could weaken it, increasing the risk of a breakout to the downside. Therefore, the 0.9755 level is critical in the short term for the direction of the market.

AUDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since early April, the NZDUSD pair has been trending upward, but the market is currently testing key support at the 0.5840 level. Holding this level could trigger another upward move. Conversely, a break below this level and a return below 0.5828 could pave the way for a resumption of the downward trend. The current levels are therefore crucial for determining the short-term direction.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

USDJPY

USDJPY has been trending upward for quite some time, but in April we saw a consolidation phase and two tests of support at the 158.10 level. This level was successfully defended, which supports the current uptrend. A break above the March 29 high would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. However, as long as support at 158.10 holds, the base case scenario is for further gains. A break below this level, however, could lead to a larger correction toward 155.11.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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USD/INR gains further due to higher oil prices, FIIs selling pressure

  • The Indian Rupee weakens further against the US Dollar amid higher oil prices.
  • The selling pressure from FIIs in the Indian stock market has increased.
  • Investors expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady next week.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens positively against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, extending its losing streak for the fifth trading day. The USD/INR pair trades firmly near the weekly high of 94.38 as the Indian currency continues to underperform in the wake of higher energy prices and the resumption of significant foreign selling in the Indian stock market.

In addition to the above-mentioned headwinds for the Indian Rupee, the upbeat US Dollar is also supporting the USD/INR pair. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near the 10-day high of around 99.00.

Investors fear prolonged Hormuz closure

Higher oil prices amid the suspension of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, by Iran as part of retaliation against the United States (US), have undermined the Indian Rupee.

During the press time, the WTI Oil price holds onto weekly gains at around $95.00. Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, underperform in a high oil price environment.

Investors doubt that the Hormuz will open soon, as Iran has not yet agreed to resume peace talks with the US, blaming Washington for the continuous blockade of Iranian sea ports.

Meanwhile, a report from CNN has shown that US military officials are developing new plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz in the event the current ceasefire with Iran fails.

FIIs remain net sellers in last four trading days

So far this week, FIIs have remained net sellers in all four trading days and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 8,311.99 crore. Foreign investors have resumed selling after a brief pause in the last three trading days of the previous week. Elevated oil prices have dimmed the interest of overseas investors in the Indian stock market amid concerns over India Inc.’s forward earnings and the expectations that the government would trim its capital expenditure to offset obligations towards rising energy prices.

Investors shift focus to the Fed policy

Going forward, the major trigger for global markets will be the monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. The Fed is widely anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and warn of upside inflation risks in the wake of higher energy prices. Investors will pay close attention to cues regarding whether the Fed plans to hike interest rates anytime this year.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR strives to revisit all-time high around 95.20

USD/INR trades higher above 94.20 at the press time, holding a constructive bullish bias as spot remains firmly above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.3565. The positioning over this short-term trend line suggests buyers retain control, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 59 shows positive but not overstretched momentum, hinting that the advance could extend as long as the pair defends its underlying supports.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period EMA at 93.3565, which underpins the current structure and is likely to attract dip buyers on shallow pullbacks. A daily close below this dynamic floor would weaken the immediate bullish tone and expose deeper retracements, whereas holding above it keeps the door open for further gains toward the all-time high at around 95.20.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Struggles below 1.1700 as bears await 200-EMA breakdown on H4

  • EUR/USD struggles to register any meaningful recovery and hangs near a two-week low.
  • Rising Iran tensions and reviving hawkish Fed bets underpin the USD, capping spot prices.
  • The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for further losses.

The EUR/USD pair remains on the back foot through the Asian session on Friday and currently trades around the 1.1680-1.1675 region, just above a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Despite a temporary extension of the ceasefire, the lack of progress in peace talks due to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports tempers hopes for a durable de-escalation and keeps investors on edge. Furthermore, elevated Crude Oil prices revive inflationary concerns and fuel hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, assists the US Dollar (USD) in preserving its gains registered over the past three days and acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices currently hover around the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, keeping the immediate tone neutral after the recent slide from higher levels. However, Thursday’s breakdown below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upswing from the March swing low favors the EUR/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 32 suggests lingering downside pressure.

Meanwhile, the slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading reinforces a lack of clear bullish momentum despite the EMA support. In the meantime, any further weakness could find immediate support near the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1648. A convincing break below this zone would open the way toward the deeper retracement levels at 1.1600 and 1.1532, ahead of the cycle floor at 1.1445.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.1696, with a break there exposing the next hurdle at the 23.6% retracement at 1.1755. Nevertheless, the broader setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside, and any meaningful recovery attempt is more likely to get sold into.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.52%0.18%0.61%0.18%-0.01%0.14%0.70%
EUR-0.52%-0.33%0.00%-0.32%-0.49%-0.42%0.18%
GBP-0.18%0.33%2.17%0.02%-0.17%-0.09%0.52%
JPY-0.61%0.00%-2.17%-0.43%-0.54%-0.49%0.11%
CAD-0.18%0.32%-0.02%0.43%-0.08%-0.07%0.51%
AUD0.01%0.49%0.17%0.54%0.08%0.15%0.68%
NZD-0.14%0.42%0.09%0.49%0.07%-0.15%0.57%
CHF-0.70%-0.18%-0.52%-0.11%-0.51%-0.68%-0.57%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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GBP steadies above 1.3450 following UK Retail Sales data

  • GBP/USD remains flat after UK Retail Sales rebounded 0.7% MoM in March, against a 0.1% growth expected.
  • US Dollar gains on safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty over the US–Iran conflict.
  • Lebanon seeks one-month ceasefire extension, though Israel’s ambassador says outcome “not 100%” certain.

GBP/USD steadies after three days of losses, trading around 1.3470 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair stays calm following the release of United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data, which rebounded 0.7% month-over-month (MoM) in March after declining by a revised 0.6% in February. The market forecast was for a 0.1% growth in the reported month.

The annual UK Retail Sales rose 1.7% in March, slightly below the prior 1.8% (revised from 2.5%) but above expectations of 1.3%. Core Retail Sales, excluding auto fuel, increased 0.2% MoM, reversing a revised 0.6% decline (from -0.4%). On an annual basis, core Retail Sales grew 1.7% in March, down from February’s 2.7% (revised from 3.4%).

The GBP/USD pair may further depreciate as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran conflict. The Guardian reported on Thursday that Lebanon will push for a one-month extension of the current ceasefire with Israel during a second round of direct talks in Washington. Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Danny Danon, said in a CNN News interview on Friday that the Lebanon ceasefire extension is “not 100%”.

The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers attempting to evade its blockade, as Washington presses ahead with efforts to curb Iran’s shipping. Meanwhile, Tehran continues to threaten vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US military officials are also preparing contingency plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait should the current ceasefire collapse.