• USD/CAD struggles as the CAD appreciates due to stronger Oil prices.
• Crude Oil prices rise on Middle East tensions, with Saudi airstrikes and Iran’s war rhetoric raising supply disruption risks.
• The US Dollar weakens as expectations grow for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2026.

USD/CAD depreciates for the second successive session, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains subdued near the five-month low of 1.3642, reached on December 26, as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from stronger Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price gains ground after registering 2.5% losses in the previous session, trading around $57.20 at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices rise amid persistent Middle East tensions, as Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and Iran’s declaration of a “full-scale war” against the United States (US), Europe, and Israel heighten supply disruption concerns.

The USD/CAD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground due to the ongoing likelihood of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Traders will likely observe the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December Meeting Minutes due on Tuesday, which may shed light on internal policy debates shaping the Fed’s outlook for 2026.

The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the December meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed delivered a cumulative 75 bps of rate cuts in 2025 amid a cooling labor market and still-elevated inflation.

The CME FedWatch tool shows an 81.7% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 77.9% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 18.3% from 22.1% a week ago.