The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from its July projection, boosted by strong investment in AI, though partly offset by rising oil prices due to the impact of the Middle East conflict. The World Economic Outlook, released as global economic and finance leaders gather in Bangkok for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, puts growth roughly in line with the most optimistic scenario issued in April but below global growth of 3.5% in 2025. Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s new chief economist, said that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could put additional pressure on inflation and slow growth. A worsening of fiscal prospects, a reassessment of AI profitability, and extreme weather events could further weaken the outlook. The IMF held its US GDP growth forecast at 2.3% for 2026, while slightly lowering its China GDP growth forecast to 4.5% from 4.6%.