Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid rising intervention risk

  • USD/JPY pauses for a breather as a fresh intervention warning helps limit JPY losses
  • Economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict cap the JPY and support the pair.
  • The bullish USD sentiment backs the case for further gains amid a constructive setup.

The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase on Wednesday, oscillating in a narrow range just below the 160.00 psychological mark, or a one-month high touched during the Asian session. Verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama offers some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with a subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, caps spot prices.

However, economic concerns stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. In contrast, the lack of breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and helps limit downside for the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, this week’s move beyond the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the late April-early May downswing comes on top of the recent solid bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and favors bulls. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 suggests firm but not overextended upside momentum. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that buyers still retain control despite the proximity of recent cycle highs.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the late April swing high near 160.78, where a clear break would reopen the path toward fresh highs. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at 159.55, followed by the 61.8% level at 158.58 and the 50% retracement at 157.90. Deeper pullbacks would look to the 38.2% level at 157.22 and the 23.6% retracement at 156.38, ahead of a stronger demand area created by the 200-day EMA at 155.77 and the structural floor near 155.03.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY
Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Declines below 186.00 amid intervention fears, but bullish vibe prevails

  • EUR/JPY edges lower to near 185.90 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • Japan’s Katayama said the authorities are standing ready to respond appropriately to foreign exchange.
  • The positive view for the cross remains intact above the key 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 186.10; the initial support level to watch is 185.08. 

The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 185.90 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gathers strength against the Euro (EUR) as traders are on alert for intervention from Japanese officials. 

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that the authorities are ready to act on the foreign exchange if required, adding that she aligns with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor on several matters. 

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as price trades above the Bollinger middle band around and comfortably over the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact. The latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading at 58.43 sits in positive territory without being overbought, hinting that bullish momentum persists but has not yet reached exhaustion.

On the upside, the immediate resistance level is now aligned with the Bollinger upper band near 186.10, en route to the April 29 high of 187.42. On the other hand, the mid-line around 185.08 reinforcing a nearby demand zone. The next crucial contention level is located near the 100-day SMA at 184.47 and the lower Bollinger band close to 184.07. 

Currency Hedger No Comments

Australia Q1 GDP misses expectations: What 0.3% growth means for AUD/USD

Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 compared with the 0.8% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Wednesday. This reading came in weaker than the expectations of 0.5% expansion. The annual first-quarter GDP grew by 2.5%, compared with the 2.6% growth in Q4, while below the market onsensus of a 2.7% increase.

The Australia GDP report came in worse than anticipated and drags the Australian Dollar lower in an immediate reaction. The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7175, losing 0.04% on the day. The pair is edges lower from Monday’s closing price at 0.7180.

(This story was corrected on June 3 at 02:00 GMT to say that the annual first-quarter GDP grew by 2.5%, compared with the 2.6% growth in Q4, not the annual fourth-quarter)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.00%-0.02%-0.05%-0.01%0.03%-0.13%0.03%
EUR-0.01%-0.04%-0.04%-0.01%0.02%-0.15%0.03%
GBP0.02%0.04%0.02%0.02%0.06%-0.12%0.06%
JPY0.05%0.04%-0.02%0.00%0.05%-0.15%0.05%
CAD0.00%0.00%-0.02%-0.01%0.04%-0.13%0.04%
AUD-0.03%-0.02%-0.06%-0.05%-0.04%-0.18%0.02%
NZD0.13%0.15%0.12%0.15%0.13%0.18%0.18%
CHF-0.03%-0.03%-0.06%-0.05%-0.04%-0.02%-0.18%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

What do Australia’s GDP data mean for the Australian Dollar?

Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators for the Australian Dollar (AUD) because it measures the overall health and growth of the economy. The weaker-than-expected GDP data might lead markets to expect a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, if risk sentiment improves, this might help limit the Aussie losses as capital flows toward the riskier assets.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD maintains positive outlook

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

In the daily chart, AUD/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as price trades well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting the broader upswing remains supported despite recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 keeps a neutral-to-positive tone, hinting that bullish momentum is modest but still intact rather than overstretched.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day EMA near 0.7038, where a deeper pullback could look to re-engage dip-buying interest while that level holds. With no nearby resistance markers from the current dataset, traders may instead focus on price behavior and momentum shifts around the 0.7178 area to gauge whether the pair extends the advance or slips back toward its underlying moving-average floor.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Technical Analysis – EUR/USD calm despite “hotter” core CPI data from Eurozone

The EUR/USD pair failed to rally despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data, suggesting that investors remain cautious about the euro’s strength amid mixed economic signals from the region. On one hand, inflation pressures appear to be re-emerging, while on the other, cyclical sectors such as manufacturing continue to show weakness, and the labor market is displaying increasingly concerning signs of slowing momentum.

The preliminary May CPI report showed headline inflation rising by 3.2% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and unchanged from the previous reading. However, core CPI surprised to the upside, accelerating to 2.6% versus expectations of 2.4% and the prior reading of 2.2%. EUR/USD is currently trading in the middle of an upward-sloping price channel. The key resistance zone appears to be located around 1.167–1.170, while 1.160 remains an important support level.

The EMA50 and EMA200 moving averages (orange and red lines) are positioned close to current market levels, suggesting that the 1.164 area could act as a short-term momentum pivot. Given that the current relatively modest recovery follows a sharp decline from the 1.20 area, it remains possible that the pair is forming a bearish flag pattern. A break below 1.160 would strengthen that technical scenario and potentially signal a continuation of the broader downtrend.

Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 114.00, bullish bias holds above key technical support

  • AUD/JPY gathers strength to near 114.35 in Tuesday’s early European session.
  • The constructive outlook for the cross prevails above the key 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 114.75; the initial support level is seen at 113.85. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 114.35 during the early European session on Tuesday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East ceasefire amid mixed signals from US President Donald Trump. 

Trump stated early Tuesday that he believes an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire with Iran is reachable “over the next week.” On Monday, US President shrugged off the possible collapse of peace negotiations with Iran, saying, “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly.” 

The likelihood of stronger verbal intervention from Japanese authorities might help limit the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) losses. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday the officials stood ready to respond in the currency market as needed and refrained from commenting on recent exchange-rate moves.

The speech by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will be the highlight later on Wednesday. Ueda could offer some hints as to whether the central bank will proceed with a rate increase the following week.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is pressing the upper side of the recent consolidation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.46 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting buyers still retain control but with reduced momentum compared to the prior peak.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band at 114.75, and a daily close above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the broader uptrend. On the downside, initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 113.85, ahead of the lower band at 112.98, with the 100-day SMA at 111.30 acting as a deeper structural floor that would need to give way to materially challenge the prevailing bullish structure.

Currency Hedger No Comments

NZD/USD – Kiwi corrects lower and tests support at 0.5965

  • NZD/USD pulls back to 0.5965 after rejection at the 0.6000 area.
  • Fresh US-Iran hostilities are casting doubt about a fragile ceasefire.
  • Upbeat manufacturing data from China provided some support to the NZD.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, retreating to session lows of 0.5965 from highs a few pips below 0.6000. Manufacturing data from China has been supportive, although the skirmishes between the US and Iran are feeding a certain degree of cautiousness at the week’s opening.

The US military reported a new wave of airstrikes on Iran’s military sites, and Tehran said that they targeted a US base that was used to launch attacks on the country. US President Donald Trump keeps pondering whether to sign a ceasefire extension or not, and meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping Oil near $100 and straining New Zealand’s Oil-importing economy.

Technical Analysis: On a bearish correction, amid a broader bullish trend

Chart Analysis NZD/USD


NZD/USD trades at 0.5971, with price action suggesting that the pair might be on the fourth wave of a 5-wave (Elliott Wave) bullish cycle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 68, after pulling back from heavily overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, all in all suggesting that pullbacks are likely to find buyers.

Immediate resistance is located at the 0.5995 session high, ahead of the February 26 high, near 0.6015. Further up, the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of last week’s rally, at 0.6036, and the mid-February highs around 0.6050 looks like a plausible target for a potential fifth wave.

A break below 0.5965, on the contrary, would expose the May 27 high, near 0.5915. Below here, the May 28 low, near 0.5865, would come next

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%-0.08%0.14%0.04%0.01%0.30%0.23%
EUR-0.05%-0.11%0.07%-0.01%0.03%0.27%0.17%
GBP0.08%0.11%0.19%0.10%0.07%0.35%0.27%
JPY-0.14%-0.07%-0.19%-0.08%-0.10%0.19%0.09%
CAD-0.04%0.00%-0.10%0.08%-0.03%0.26%0.18%
AUD-0.01%-0.03%-0.07%0.10%0.03%0.23%0.19%
NZD-0.30%-0.27%-0.35%-0.19%-0.26%-0.23%-0.08%
CHF-0.23%-0.17%-0.27%-0.09%-0.18%-0.19%0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Yen languishes amid growing BoJ rate hike uncertainty

  • USD/JPY rises to near 159.45 as BoJ rate hike uncertainty weakens Japanese Yen.
  • The BoJ SoP of the April meeting showed that most policymakers expressed the need to raise interest rates in the near term.
  • Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.12% higher at around 159.45 during the early European trading session on Monday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) broadly underperforms amid uncertainty regarding whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting on June 16.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%-0.10%0.13%0.07%-0.07%0.28%0.21%
EUR-0.05%-0.14%0.04%0.02%-0.07%0.24%0.14%
GBP0.10%0.14%0.19%0.15%0.02%0.38%0.27%
JPY-0.13%-0.04%-0.19%-0.03%-0.18%0.18%0.08%
CAD-0.07%-0.02%-0.15%0.03%-0.15%0.21%0.12%
AUD0.07%0.07%-0.02%0.18%0.15%0.30%0.25%
NZD-0.28%-0.24%-0.38%-0.18%-0.21%-0.30%-0.09%
CHF-0.21%-0.14%-0.27%-0.08%-0.12%-0.25%0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Higher oil prices due to the Middle East crisis-led energy supply shock have raised uncertainty over the Japan’s economic outlook.

Former BoJ Deputy Governor and current member of Japan’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, Masazumi Wakatabe, said last week said in a meeting that it is important to understand whether the economy can withstand tighter monetary conditions, Reuters reported.

However, the BoJ Summary of Opinions (SoP) of the April policy meeting showed that a majority of policymakers supported an interest rate hike in the near term, while warning of high inflation risks.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher at the start of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data week. Investors will closely monitor the data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades higher at around 159.45 at press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.84, keeping the recent uptrend structure intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, which suggests buyers still retain the initiative while upside momentum is steady rather than stretched.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 158.84, where a daily close below would hint at a deeper corrective phase and expose lower levels on the chart towards 158.00. On the upside, the pair could advance towards an almost two-year high of 160.73 if it manages to decisively break above the May 28 high at 159.65.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Indian Rupee extends gains at the start of RBI policy week

  • The Indian Rupee rises at open against the US Dollar at the start of the RBI policy and the US NFP week.
  • Oil prices rebound due to the exchange of attacks between Israel and Lebanon.
  • The RBI is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Friday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a positive note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy week. The USD/INR pair slides to near 94.78 as the Indian currency strengthens further amid solid hopes over the United States (US)-Iran permanent peace deal, even as oil prices have bounced back.

At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 2% higher to near $89.00 after registering over-a-month low at $85.41 on Friday. Theoretically, currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform when oil prices recover.

Oil prices have regained ground, following attacks from Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in Lebanon on Iran-backed Hezbollah, which renewed fears of an energy supply crisis.

US President Trump revises terms for Iran deal

The comments from US and Iranian officials clearly state that negotiations toward a permanent peace deal are ongoing, and Washington doesn’t want Tehran to have nuclear weapons in any way.

US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News over the weekend that Washington wants to make sure Iran neither develops nuclear weapons nor purchases them before reaching a deal, adding that he has inculcated tougher terms for Iran relating to nukes and the Strait of Hormuz. “So now [the agreement] says, ‘We will not develop or in any way purchase a military weapon,” Trump said.

After US President Trump’s interview, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that negotiations with Washington were ongoing, and any deal could not be judged before a definitive outcome is reached, Reuters reported.

RBI policy and India’s Q1 GDP data awaited

This week, key triggers for the Indian currency will be the RBI’s monetary policy announcement and the Q1 GDP data, which will be released on Friday. According to the latest Reuters poll, the RBI will hold its key Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25% and deliver a hawkish stance on the monetary policy outlook, as high oil prices due to the energy supply crisis have prompted inflationary pressures globally.

The poll also showed that a majority of economists anticipated at least one interest rate hike by the year-end.

Over the weekend, India’s Finance Ministry warned that a depreciating Indian Rupee, higher energy prices, and below-average expected monsoon pose a threat to nation’s inflation outlook.

US NFP will be key trigger for US Dollar

The US Dollar starts the week with a mild bullish tone, with investors awaiting key US labor market and economic activity data releases, especially the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data, which will be released on Friday.

The impact of the US NFP data is expected to be limited on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, unless there is a dramatic change, as the latest comments from policymakers have shown that they are more concerned about high inflation than weak job demand.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR settles below 20-day EMA

USD/INR trades lower at around 94.78, holding below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.3677 and keeping a mild bearish near-term bias.

The pair has slipped away from recent highs, and with price capped beneath this short-term EMA, rallies appear vulnerable to selling while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.7 drifts below the neutral 50 line, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 95.37, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way toward 96.00. Looking down, the pair could extend its decline towards May 7 low at around 94.00