Coffee prices face opposing supply forces as tight availability from Colombia and concerns over El Niño-related weather disruption compete with expectations for a record global crop. December 2026 arabica futures recently gained 0.72%, while November 2026 robusta futures declined 0.55%, reflecting the different supply outlooks confronting the two coffee markets.

Arabica prices continue to receive support from lower Colombian production and historically tight exchange inventories. However, stronger exports from Brazil and Vietnam, improving growing conditions across key producing regions, and forecasts for abundant global supplies could limit further gains. The direction of coffee prices will increasingly depend on Brazil’s flowering and crop development, Vietnam’s export momentum, and whether weather risks translate into measurable production losses during the 2026/27 season.

Market Snapshot

• December 2026 arabica futures: Up 2.10 points, or 0.72%, in the latest reported session.
• November 2026 robusta futures: Down 19 points, or 0.55%.
• Colombia 2025/26 coffee production: 12.65 million bags, down 15% year-on-year.
• Colombia 2025/26 coffee exports: 11.78 million bags, down 12%.
• Brazil September coffee exports: 236,000 metric tonnes, up more than 20% year-on-year.
• Vietnam September coffee exports: 124,000 metric tonnes, up 53% year-on-year.
• ICO 2025/26 global production forecast: 183.6 million bags.
• ICO projected global surplus: 3 million bags.
• USDA 2026/27 global production forecast: A record 189.7 million bags.

Arabica Prices Supported by Tight Colombian Supplies

Colombia remains a key influence on arabica prices, with lower production and reduced exports limiting the availability of beans from one of the world’s leading arabica-producing countries.

The Colombian Coffee Federation reports that production during the 2025/26 season fell 15% year-on-year to 12.65 million bags, while exports declined 12% to 11.78 million bags. This reduction in supply provides underlying support for arabica futures, particularly while exchange inventories remain relatively low.

ICE arabica inventories fell to 217,646 bags on September 15, their lowest level in 27 years, before recovering to 260,654 bags by September 30. Although the rebound suggests some improvement in immediately available exchange stocks, inventories remain an important indicator to monitor as buyers assess supply security.

Tighter Colombian availability could continue to support arabica prices if demand remains resilient and other origins cannot fully compensate for the shortfall.

However, the bullish effect may weaken if Brazil delivers the larger crop currently anticipated. The market must therefore balance immediate availability concerns against the potential for increased supply later in the season.

Brazil’s Crop Outlook Creates a Bearish Counterweight

Brazil remains the dominant factor in the global arabica supply outlook. Expectations for a larger crop are limiting the upside potential for coffee prices, particularly as production forecasts point to a substantial recovery from the previous season.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2026 coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million bags. Its forecast anticipates arabica production of 48.21 million bags, an increase of 34.8% year-on-year, while robusta output is expected to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service has also projected a record Brazilian crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% from the previous year. The difference between these estimates highlights the uncertainty surrounding the final production outcome, but both forecasts point to the importance of Brazil’s recovery in shaping global supply expectations.

Export activity is already showing strength. Brazil’s September coffee exports reportedly increased by more than 20% year-on-year to 236,000 metric tonnes, adding to expectations that greater availability could reach international buyers.

For prices, the key question is whether Brazil’s projected production gains materialise. A large harvest would help replenish supply and potentially ease the pressure created by lower Colombian output. Conversely, weather-related damage during flowering and subsequent crop development could undermine the expected recovery.

El Niño Weather Risks Could Support Coffee Prices

Weather remains one of the most important upside risks for coffee markets.

Concerns surrounding El Niño have raised the possibility of irregular rainfall, drought, flooding and temperature fluctuations across coffee-producing regions in South America and Asia. Brazil is particularly important because the timing and distribution of rainfall during flowering can influence the development and size of the next crop.

Coffee trader Commercial has warned that El Niño could delay rainfall during September and October, a period associated with flowering in Brazil. If moisture becomes insufficient or rainfall arrives at the wrong time, flowering and fruit development could be disrupted, reducing the expected 2026/27 harvest.

However, current weather observations also provide a counterargument. Somar Meteorologia reported 33.3 millimetres of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ended October 4, equivalent to 104% of the historical average. This is potentially beneficial for developing coffee trees and could support production if favourable conditions persist.

The market must therefore distinguish between forecasts of future weather disruption and confirmed crop damage. El Niño concerns may generate a risk premium, but sustained price support would be more likely if adverse conditions materially affected flowering, yields or harvest expectations.

Vietnam’s Rising Exports Weigh on Robusta

Robusta faces a more immediate supply challenge as Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, reports strong export growth and an improving production outlook.

Vietnam’s September coffee exports rose 53% year-on-year to 124,000 metric tonnes. Exports during January–September increased 16.2% to 1.45 million metric tonnes, while full-year 2025 exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tonnes.

Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also projected to increase by 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tonnes, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across Vietnam’s Central Highlands, supporting the development of coffee cherries in the country’s principal growing region. If these conditions continue, they could reinforce expectations for improved availability and place additional pressure on robusta futures.

ICE robusta inventories climbed to 5,398 lots on September 24, their highest level in approximately 10.5 months, before declining to 5,115 lots in the latest reported update. The subsequent decline provides some evidence of tighter exchange availability, but the broader export and production outlook remains a potential headwind.

Robusta prices could remain vulnerable if Vietnamese supply expands as expected and export shipments continue at a strong pace.

Global Coffee Surplus Limits the Bullish Outlook

The International Coffee Organization’s 2025/26 assessment points to a shift in the global balance from tight supply towards a surplus.

The ICO projects global coffee production to increase 4.4% year-on-year to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is expected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. This implies a surplus of approximately 3 million bags, which would be the first global surplus in five years.

The USDA’s outlook is more expansive for the following season. Its 2026/27 forecast anticipates global production rising 6% to a record 189.7 million bags, an increase of 10.8 million bags. Arabica production is expected to grow 12%, while robusta production is projected to decline slightly by 0.7%. Global ending stocks are forecast to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

These projections provide a substantial bearish counterweight to weather concerns and regional supply shortages. If production increases as forecast while consumption remains subdued, buyers may face less urgency to secure supplies, potentially easing prices across both arabica and robusta markets.

Nevertheless, production estimates remain forecasts rather than confirmed harvest results. Any material disruption in Brazil, Colombia or Vietnam could change the projected balance and force markets to reassess the expected surplus.

Bullish Scenario: Weather Disruption and Tight Arabica Stocks

A bullish scenario would develop if El Niño produces adverse growing conditions in Brazil or other major coffee-producing regions, reducing the expected size of the 2026/27 crop.

Arabica could benefit most directly if Colombian availability remains constrained and ICE inventories stay low. If Brazil’s flowering or fruit development is disrupted, the market may begin to price in a smaller-than-expected harvest, offsetting some of the pressure from higher production forecasts.

Robusta could also find support if Vietnamese exports slow, weather conditions deteriorate or exchange inventories resume a sustained decline.

Under this scenario, prices could recover as the market places greater emphasis on immediate availability and the risk of production shortfalls rather than projected global surpluses.

Bearish Scenario: Record Production and Strong Exports

A bearish scenario would emerge if Brazil’s larger crop develops successfully, Vietnam continues to increase exports and global production moves towards the USDA’s record forecast.

Improved rainfall in key growing regions would strengthen confidence in higher yields, while sustained export volumes could increase the supply available to international buyers. A recovery in exchange inventories would add to the pressure if stocks rise consistently across both arabica and robusta markets.

The projected 3-million-bag surplus for 2025/26 and the anticipated increase in global ending stocks during 2026/27 could further limit prices if consumption fails to accelerate.

Under these conditions, arabica may receive some relative support from Colombian supply constraints, while robusta could remain more exposed to Vietnam’s expanding availability.

Coffee Price Forecast: What to Watch Next

Coffee prices are likely to remain sensitive to the balance between immediate supply tightness and expectations for a larger global harvest. Arabica has a degree of support from Colombia’s lower production and historically low ICE stocks, while robusta faces pressure from Vietnam’s strong exports and improving crop prospects.

The following developments will be particularly important:

• Brazilian flowering and rainfall: Evidence of crop damage or favourable development will influence confidence in the next harvest.
• El Niño progression: Actual weather impacts will matter more than forecasts alone.
• Colombian production and exports: Continued weakness could keep arabica supply relatively tight.
• Vietnamese export momentum: Sustained shipment growth could weigh on robusta prices.
• ICE inventories: A renewed decline in arabica stocks could reinforce tight-supply concerns, while rising robusta stocks could add to selling pressure.
• Global production revisions: Changes to ICO, USDA or Brazilian crop estimates may alter expectations for the global surplus.
• Consumption trends: Stronger demand could absorb part of the anticipated production increase, while weaker consumption would reinforce bearish supply expectations.

The near-term outlook is mixed, with weather-related upside risks offset by the prospect of abundant global supplies. The direction of the next sustained move will depend on whether actual crop conditions validate the optimistic production forecasts or introduce fresh supply concerns.

Currency Hedger View

Coffee demonstrates how weather, export flows and global production estimates can create different price dynamics across related commodity markets. Arabica remains sensitive to Colombian availability and Brazilian crop risks, while robusta is more exposed to Vietnam’s export performance and the outlook for Asian production.

For coffee importers, roasters and international traders, price volatility can interact with foreign exchange movements to affect landed costs, supplier payments and operating margins. A decline in coffee prices may not fully offset an adverse currency movement, while a stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated purchases for some businesses.

Monitoring commodity prices alongside exchange rates can help businesses evaluate their overall exposure and plan for changing supplier costs. The current coffee outlook favours a selective approach, with close attention to crop development, export data and the difference between arabica and robusta supply conditions.

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Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Market outlooks and forecasts are conditional and may change as new information becomes available. Coffee futures, foreign exchange and other financial instruments involve risk, and prices can move sharply in either direction. Businesses and market participants should assess their individual circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.