Cocoa futures are facing renewed selling pressure, with December ICE New York cocoa closing at 4,995, down 151 points or 2.93%, while December ICE London cocoa settled at 3,779, falling 131 points or 3.35%.
Both markets recorded significant losses on Monday, with New York cocoa reaching a 4.25-month nearest-futures low and London cocoa falling to a 3.25-month low.
The decline extends a three-week downward trend, with rising ICE inventories easing immediate concerns about global supply availability. However, the longer-term production outlook remains uncertain as reduced arrivals from Ivory Coast, weaker crop assessments across West Africa and the potential impact of a strong El Niño weather pattern raise concerns about the 2026/27 harvest.
Demand indicators are also divided. North American cocoa processing has weakened, while Asian and European grindings have recorded stronger-than-expected growth. This divergence is creating a complicated outlook for traders assessing whether the recent price correction can continue or whether tightening future production will eventually provide support.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| December 2026 New York Cocoa | 4,995 |
| NY Cocoa Daily Change | -151 points (-2.93%) |
| December 2026 London Cocoa | 3,779 |
| London Cocoa Daily Change | -131 points (-3.35%) |
| NY Nearest-Futures Low | 4.25-month low |
| London Nearest-Futures Low | 3.25-month low |
| ICE Cocoa Inventories | 3,751,670 bags |
| Inventory Position | Highest in 2.5 years |
| Ivory Coast Port Arrivals | 228,475 MT |
| Ivory Coast Arrivals Annual Change | -45% |
| Nigeria September Exports | 19,343 MT |
| Nigeria Export Annual Change | +33% |
| StoneX 2026/27 Balance Forecast | 64,000 MT deficit |
Current Cocoa Price Action
Cocoa futures extended their decline on Monday, with both New York and London contracts recording substantial losses.
December New York cocoa settled at 4,995, down 151 points or 2.93%. December London cocoa closed at 3,779, losing 131 points or 3.35%.
The latest declines have pushed New York cocoa to its lowest nearest-futures level in approximately 4.25 months, while London has reached a 3.25-month low.
Prices have been trending lower over the past three weeks, largely as increasing ICE warehouse inventories have reduced immediate concerns about the availability of cocoa.
ICE cocoa stocks climbed to 3,751,670 bags last Friday, their highest level in approximately two and a half years.
The inventory increase is an important bearish development because it suggests that available exchange-certified supplies are rebuilding after the tighter conditions that previously supported elevated cocoa prices.
However, the latest weakness in futures contrasts with continuing concerns about production in West Africa, particularly as the new main crop harvest gets underway.
Rising ICE Inventories Weigh on Cocoa Prices
The steady increase in ICE cocoa inventories is currently one of the strongest bearish influences on the market.
Stocks have risen consistently since the beginning of the year, reaching 3,751,670 bags last Friday.
The rebuilding of exchange inventories is helping ease immediate supply concerns and has contributed to the recent three-week decline in futures prices.
For traders, the inventory trend provides an important indication of near-term market availability, although it does not represent the entire global cocoa supply balance.
The key question is whether inventories continue increasing or whether reduced production and shipment volumes eventually begin to tighten the physical market.
Nigeria Cocoa Exports Increase
Nigeria is providing another source of additional supply to international markets.
September cocoa-bean exports increased 33% year-on-year to 19,343 tonnes, with higher cocoa prices reportedly encouraging exporters to sell.
Nigeria is the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, making its export performance an important consideration for the global market.
The increase in shipments adds to the bearish near-term picture, particularly while ICE inventories are also rebuilding.
However, the impact of Nigerian exports must be assessed alongside developments in the larger producing countries, especially Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Fall Sharply
Reduced shipments from Ivory Coast are providing an important counterbalance to the bearish inventory trend.
Government data showed that farmers delivered 55,317 MT of cocoa to ports during the week ended November 8, compared with 107,139 MT during the corresponding week a year earlier.
This represents a substantial reduction in weekly deliveries.
For the marketing season to date, covering October 1 through November 8, Ivory Coast port arrivals declined 45% year-on-year to 228,475 MT, compared with 411,979 MT during the equivalent period last season.
The decline is particularly significant because Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer and a central supplier to international chocolate manufacturers.
Last season, port arrivals increased 20% year-on-year, highlighting the contrast between the previous marketing year and the current opening figures.
One reporting consideration is that Bloomberg continues to report Ivory Coast shipments using the international cocoa marketing year, despite Ivory Coast moving its 2026/27 marketing year forward by one month to begin on September 1.
The lower arrivals could become increasingly supportive for cocoa prices if the weakness persists through the coming weeks.
Global Cocoa Production Forecasts Point Towards a Deficit
Despite the current price decline, longer-term production forecasts suggest that the global cocoa market could move back into deficit.
On October 29, StoneX revised its 2026/27 global balance forecast, moving from an earlier projected surplus of 25,000 MT to a deficit of 64,000 MT.
This follows its estimate of a substantial 494,000 MT surplus for the 2025/26 season.
StoneX expects global cocoa production to decline 9.6% year-on-year to 4.74 MMT in 2026/27.
The projected reduction is attributed to lower production in Indonesia, Ivory Coast and Ecuador, with El Niño-related weather disruptions expected to affect output.
The change in the forecast highlights the potential transition from a market characterised by improved supply availability towards one facing renewed production constraints.
El Niño Creates New Weather Risks for Cocoa Production
Weather conditions are emerging as one of the most important medium-term factors influencing cocoa prices.
The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño weather pattern, which emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month, could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years.
El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to parts of West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees and lowering yields.
Ivory Coast and Ghana are particularly important because of their combined influence on global cocoa production.
If the expected weather disruptions materialise, the impact could become increasingly visible in crop development and production estimates over the coming months.
For traders, the strength and duration of El Niño will remain a critical factor when assessing the global supply outlook.
Ivory Coast Crop Assessments Signal Weak Main Harvest
Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop are raising additional concerns about production.
Initial assessments indicate below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, suggesting a weaker outlook for the main harvest that began this month.
Early crop estimates point towards production of approximately 1.8 MMT for the season beginning in September, representing an 18% decline from approximately 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.
Poor pod development is also contributing to concerns about the quality of the upcoming crop.
Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine across Ivory Coast and Ghana have reportedly created favourable conditions for black pod disease, increasing the risk of reduced cocoa bean quality.
The combination of weaker pod development, disease pressure and potential El Niño-related disruption could place further pressure on West African production.
Ghana Production Outlook Weakens
Ghana’s cocoa sector is also facing significant production challenges.
On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimated that 2026/27 production could reach approximately 650,000 MT, down 13% from 750,000 MT in the 2025/26 season.
Earlier, on July 30, COCOBOD projected an even wider potential production range of 450,000 to 550,000 MT for 2026/27.
The regulator attributed the expected reduction to swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and the possibility of adverse weather associated with El Niño.
However, the current marketing year has delivered stronger production.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board reported on August 26 that 750,000 MT had been harvested during the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month. This represented a 25.6% increase from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.
The contrast between stronger current-season production and the weaker outlook for the next crop highlights the uncertainty facing the Ghanaian cocoa industry.
Cocoa Demand Signals Remain Mixed
Demand indicators are presenting a divided picture across the major cocoa-consuming regions.
The National Confectioners Association reported on October 15 that North American cocoa grindings declined 2.5% year-on-year in the third quarter to 109,978 MT.
The result was weaker than expectations, which had anticipated no change.
However, Asian cocoa processing delivered a considerably stronger performance.
The Cocoa Association of Asia reported that third-quarter grindings increased a record 29% year-on-year to 233,767 MT, significantly exceeding expectations of 15% growth.
European cocoa grindings also surprised to the upside, increasing 3.2% to 348,215 MT, compared with expectations for a 3.9% annual decline.
These figures suggest that cocoa demand is not weakening uniformly across global markets.
North American processing remains a concern, but the stronger Asian and European figures indicate continued demand in other major consuming regions.
The direction of future grindings will be important in determining whether the projected production deficit translates into a sustained tightening of the global cocoa balance.
Bullish Cocoa Sentiment
- Lower Ivory Coast arrivals: Port arrivals have fallen 45% year-on-year to 228,475 MT for the marketing season to date, indicating significantly weaker deliveries.
- StoneX deficit forecast: The revised 2026/27 global balance now points towards a 64,000 MT deficit, reversing the previous surplus projection.
- El Niño weather risks: The possibility of one of the strongest El Niño events in more than 75 years raises concerns about production across West Africa and other growing regions.
- Weak Ivory Coast crop assessments: Below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development point towards a potentially smaller main harvest.
- Lower Ghana production outlook: COCOBOD’s forecast of 450,000–550,000 MT for 2026/27 highlights significant production risks.
- Stronger Asian grindings: Third-quarter Asian cocoa processing increased 29% year-on-year to 233,767 MT, substantially exceeding expectations.
- Improved European demand: European grindings rose 3.2%, outperforming market expectations for a decline.
Bearish Cocoa Sentiment
- Rising ICE inventories: Exchange stocks have reached 3,751,670 bags, their highest level in approximately two and a half years.
- Three-week futures decline: Both New York and London cocoa have continued moving lower as inventory growth eases immediate supply concerns.
- Higher Nigerian exports: September cocoa exports increased 33% year-on-year to 19,343 tonnes, adding to available international supply.
- Weaker North American grindings: Third-quarter processing declined 2.5% year-on-year to 109,978 MT, highlighting demand weakness in an important consuming market.
- Previous-season production surplus: StoneX estimated a substantial 494,000 MT global surplus for 2025/26.
- Stronger Ghana current-season production: The reported 750,000 MT harvest for 2025/26 represents a 25.6% increase from the previous season.
Cocoa Price Forecast: What Traders Should Watch
The near-term outlook for cocoa remains bearish following Monday’s sharp decline and the continued increase in ICE inventories.
New York and London futures have reached multi-month lows, suggesting that improving immediate availability is currently outweighing concerns about future West African production.
However, the longer-term outlook is more supportive.
The sharp reduction in Ivory Coast arrivals, weaker early crop assessments and the possibility of El Niño-related disruption could create a tighter supply environment as the 2026/27 season progresses.
Traders should concentrate on several key developments:
- ICE inventories: Whether stocks continue rising or begin to stabilise.
- Ivory Coast port arrivals: Whether the 45% year-on-year decline continues through the opening weeks of the season.
- Ghana production: Whether official forecasts move closer to the lower COCOBOD estimates.
- El Niño developments: The potential impact on rainfall, crop development and disease pressure.
- Global cocoa grindings: Whether stronger Asian and European processing can offset weaker North American demand.
- StoneX supply forecasts: Whether the projected 2026/27 deficit becomes more pronounced.
A continued increase in inventories could maintain downward pressure on prices in the short term. However, confirmation of weaker West African production could eventually shift market attention towards tightening future supplies.
Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions
Cocoa enters the coming sessions with prices under considerable pressure following Monday’s multi-month lows.
The immediate market direction remains closely linked to ICE inventory movements and the availability of physical cocoa. Rising stocks and increased Nigerian exports are currently providing bearish signals.
However, the substantial decline in Ivory Coast arrivals and the weaker outlook for the next Ghanaian and Ivorian crops create a more complicated longer-term picture.
Demand also remains divided, with North American grindings weakening while Asian and European processing have exceeded expectations.
The market is therefore facing a contrast between improved immediate supply availability and the possibility of a significant production shortfall in the coming season.
For traders, the next important confirmation will come from further Ivory Coast arrivals, warehouse inventory movements and updated assessments of West African crop conditions.
Today Markets Analysis
Cocoa futures are experiencing a significant correction, with New York and London contracts reaching their lowest levels in several months.
The increase in ICE inventories to 3.75 million bags is currently the dominant bearish influence, easing concerns about immediate supply availability and encouraging further selling.
However, the physical market is showing signs of underlying weakness in West African deliveries. Ivory Coast arrivals have fallen 45% year-on-year, while early crop assessments suggest that the next main harvest could be considerably smaller.
The potential impact of a strong El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly for Ivory Coast and Ghana, where production and crop quality remain vulnerable to weather conditions and disease.
The key issue is timing. Rising inventories are weighing on prices today, but the effects of weaker crop development may become more important as the 2026/27 season progresses.
For now, cocoa remains under short-term pressure, although the longer-term supply outlook warrants close attention.
Currency Hedger View
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The current combination of falling futures prices, changing West African supply expectations and uncertainty surrounding future production makes procurement planning particularly important.
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Risk Disclaimer
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Agricultural commodity markets are subject to significant volatility and may be affected by weather conditions, crop production, disease, inventories, processing demand and currency movements. Trading leveraged products, including contracts for difference (CFDs), involves significant risk and may result in losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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