The US CPI is forecast to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in October 2026, half the 0.6% increase recorded in September, which marked the largest monthly gain since April. Gasoline prices are expected to edge 0.9% lower. Core CPI is also projected to moderate, easing to 0.2% from 0.3%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain relatively contained. However, the October inflation report will come with an important caveat. The BLS will not publish 12-month percentage changes for October 2026 for indexes for which October 2025 data are unavailable. This is because the October 2025 CPI data were not collected and published amid the federal government shutdown. Consequently, annual inflation rates for both headline and core CPI will probably not be available. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Inflation Nowcasting model was pointing to annual headline and core inflation rates of 3.7% and 2.5%, respectively.