US corn prices enter Friday facing continued selling pressure after futures settled close to Thursday’s session lows, with contracts declining between 4¼ and 7½ cents. The market struggled to attract buying interest despite a decline in ethanol inventories, while weaker ethanol production and reduced export activity added to concerns surrounding domestic demand.
December 2026 corn settled at $4.42½ per bushel, down 5½ cents, while the national average cash price declined to $4.09¼. Deferred contracts also weakened, with December 2027 recording the largest loss.
Attention now turns to Friday’s delayed USDA Export Sales report and Brazil’s latest production estimates from CONAB. The export figures should provide a clearer indication of international demand, while the Brazilian outlook will be closely assessed following the USDA’s recent upward revision to its own production forecast.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Thursday Close | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| December 2026 CBOT Corn | $4.42½ | -5½ cents |
| March 2027 Corn | $4.54¾ | -5½ cents |
| May 2027 Corn | $4.62¾ | -5½ cents |
| December 2027 Corn | $4.78½ | -7½ cents |
| National Average Cash Corn | $4.09¼ | -6 cents |
| New Crop Cash | $4.40⅜ | -9 cents |
| Ethanol Production | 1.13 million bpd | -13,000 bpd |
| Ethanol Stocks | 24.345 million barrels | -89,000 barrels |
All futures and cash prices reflect Thursday’s closing session.
Current Corn Price Action
Corn futures finished Thursday close to session lows, with contracts losing between 4¼ and 7½ cents as buying interest remained limited.
December 2026 corn settled at $4.42½, down 5½ cents. March 2027 and May 2027 both declined by the same amount, closing at $4.54¾ and $4.62¾ respectively.
Further along the curve, December 2027 corn fell 7½ cents to $4.78½, recording the largest decline among the contracts listed.
The weakness extended into the cash market. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price dropped 6 cents to $4.09¼, while new-crop cash declined 9 cents to $4.40⅜.
The broad-based losses indicate that selling pressure is affecting both nearby and deferred corn contracts, with the market now looking towards export demand and Brazilian production estimates for direction.
Ethanol Production and Inventory Data
The latest Energy Information Administration weekly report provided a mixed picture for the domestic corn demand outlook.
US ethanol production averaged 1.13 million barrels per day during the week ending November 6, representing a decline of 13,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
Ethanol inventories also declined, falling by 89,000 barrels to 24.345 million barrels.
However, other demand indicators weakened:
- Ethanol production: 1.13 million barrels per day, down 13,000 bpd.
- Ethanol stocks: 24.345 million barrels, down 89,000 barrels.
- Refiner ethanol inputs: 888,000 bpd, down 11,000 bpd.
- Ethanol exports: 140,000 bpd, down 7,000 bpd.
The decline in inventories offers some support, but the reductions in production, refinery inputs and exports suggest that ethanol-related demand was softer during the reporting week.
For corn traders, the ethanol sector remains an important component of domestic consumption, making further production and utilisation figures relevant to the near-term outlook.
US Export Sales in Focus
The delayed USDA Export Sales report is scheduled for Friday following the Wednesday Veterans Day federal holiday.
A Reuters survey of traders indicates expectations for 2026/27 corn sales between 2 million and 3 million metric tonnes for the week ending November 5.
Bookings for the 2027/28 marketing year are expected to range between 600,000 and 800,000 MT.
These figures will be closely watched following Thursday’s price decline. Sales towards the upper end of expectations could provide evidence of strong international demand and help stabilise futures.
However, weaker bookings could reinforce concerns about the market’s ability to attract sufficient buying interest at current price levels.
Brazil Corn Production Estimates Awaited
Brazil’s latest corn production estimates from CONAB are due on Friday morning, making the report another important market catalyst.
The USDA raised its estimate for Brazilian corn production by 2 million tonnes to 141 million tonnes on Tuesday.
CONAB’s previous estimate, published last month, stood at 148 million tonnes.
The difference between the two estimates makes Friday’s update particularly significant. Any adjustment by CONAB could influence expectations for Brazil’s exportable surplus and the competitive position of US corn in international markets.
A higher production estimate could add to global supply concerns, while a downward revision could offer some support by reducing expectations of available Brazilian supply.
Bullish Sentiment
- Declining Ethanol Inventories: Stocks fell by 89,000 barrels to 24.345 million, providing a modest positive signal for the domestic market.
- Potentially Strong Export Demand: The expected 2–3 million MT of 2026/27 bookings could provide support if sales meet or exceed expectations.
- Brazil Production Uncertainty: Any downward adjustment to CONAB’s previous 148 million-tonne estimate could improve the supply outlook for competing exporters.
- Cash Market Demand: Continued buying interest in physical corn could help stabilise cash prices following Thursday’s decline.
Bearish Sentiment
- Broad Futures Weakness: Corn contracts fell between 4¼ and 7½ cents, finishing close to session lows.
- Lower Ethanol Production: Output declined by 13,000 barrels per day to 1.13 million bpd.
- Reduced Ethanol Utilisation: Refiner inputs and exports both declined during the reporting week.
- Higher USDA Brazil Estimate: The USDA’s increase to 141 million tonnes has added to expectations of global corn availability.
- Weak Cash Prices: National average cash corn fell 6 cents, while new-crop cash declined 9 cents.
Corn Price Forecast – What Traders Are Watching
Friday’s USDA Export Sales report will be the immediate focus for the corn market.
Bookings within or above the expected 2–3 million MT range could help restore confidence in export demand following Thursday’s selling pressure. The 600,000–800,000 MT forecast for 2027/28 business will also provide an indication of forward purchasing interest.
CONAB’s Brazilian production estimate is equally important. With the USDA already raising its forecast to 141 million tonnes, traders will be assessing whether the Brazilian agency moves closer to that figure or maintains its higher previous estimate of 148 million tonnes.
The December 2026 contract’s $4.42½ close will be an important reference point as the market attempts to stabilise. Continued weakness could leave prices exposed to additional selling, while stronger export figures and a more supportive Brazilian production outlook could encourage a recovery.
Supply Outlook
The global supply picture remains sensitive to developments in Brazil.
The USDA’s recent upward revision to 141 million tonnes has increased attention on the country’s production potential, while CONAB’s previous estimate of 148 million tonnes leaves scope for further adjustment.
Friday’s report will help clarify whether Brazilian production expectations are changing and what that could mean for international corn availability.
For the US market, the balance between domestic consumption, ethanol demand and export commitments will remain important in determining price direction.
Demand Outlook
Corn demand indicators are mixed.
The decline in ethanol inventories offers some encouragement, but lower production, refinery inputs and exports suggest that ethanol-related consumption weakened during the reporting week.
Export demand now becomes particularly important. The expected 2–3 million MT of 2026/27 sales represents a key benchmark for Friday’s report.
If international bookings remain strong, they could offset some of the concerns surrounding domestic ethanol activity. Disappointing sales, however, would leave the market more exposed to the current bearish supply and demand signals.
Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions
Corn prices enter Friday under pressure, with Thursday’s losses extending across nearby and deferred futures and the cash market.
The market faces two important catalysts: the delayed USDA Export Sales report and CONAB’s updated Brazilian production estimates. Together, they should provide further clarity on international demand and the outlook for competing global supply.
Ethanol data also remains relevant, particularly as production, refiner inputs and exports all declined during the latest reporting week despite lower inventories.
For the coming sessions, traders will be watching whether export demand can provide enough support to offset softer ethanol activity and potentially larger Brazilian production.
Stronger sales or a reduction in Brazil’s production estimate could help stabilise prices. Conversely, disappointing export bookings combined with a higher CONAB forecast could leave corn vulnerable to further downside pressure.
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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Agricultural commodity futures involve significant price volatility and financial risk. Market participants should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
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