Cocoa futures closed higher for a third consecutive session on Friday, with December ICE New York cocoa (CCZ26) gaining 53 points, or 1.05%, while December London cocoa (CAZ26) advanced 44 points, or 1.15%.
The recovery was supported by reports of heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast, where damaged roads have disrupted the transportation of cocoa beans to collection centres. Lower port arrivals have added to concerns about near-term availability, encouraging short covering after cocoa prices reached a 4.5-month low earlier in the week.
Looking ahead to next week, traders face competing market signals. Rising ICE inventories and planned reductions in cocoa index weightings remain bearish influences, while declining Ivory Coast arrivals, concerns over West African crop quality and the threat of a powerful El Niño provide underlying support.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Latest Position |
|---|---|
| December New York cocoa | +53 points (+1.05%) |
| December London cocoa | +44 points (+1.15%) |
| Friday’s market direction | Third consecutive daily gain |
| Ivory Coast weekly port arrivals | 55,317 MT |
| Weekly arrivals year-on-year | -48.4% |
| Ivory Coast season-to-date arrivals | 228,475 MT |
| Season-to-date arrivals year-on-year | -45% |
| ICE cocoa inventories | 3,784,710 bags |
| Inventory position | 2.5-year high |
| StoneX 2026/27 balance forecast | 64,000 MT deficit |
| StoneX 2026/27 production forecast | 4.74 MMT |
| Early Ivory Coast crop estimate | 1.8 MMT |
| Early Ghana 2026/27 crop estimate | 650,000 MT |
Friday’s Cocoa Market Close
Cocoa futures extended their recovery on Friday, recording a third consecutive daily advance.
New York December cocoa gained 1.05%, while London December cocoa rose 1.15%. The gains came as reports of heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast raised concerns about disruptions to the movement of cocoa beans from farms to collection centres.
The latest rally follows a difficult month for cocoa, with prices having fallen to a 4.5-month low on Tuesday. Rising exchange inventories had eased concerns about immediate supply availability, but the latest shipment figures and weather developments have encouraged some traders to cover short positions.
The question for the coming week is whether the recovery can continue or whether the market returns to pressure from rising inventories and anticipated index-fund selling.
Ivory Coast Rainfall Disrupts Cocoa Transportation
Heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast has damaged roads and disrupted the transportation of cocoa from producing areas to collection centres.
The logistical disruption is important because Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer and a major supplier to international markets. Delays in moving beans towards collection points and ports can restrict near-term arrivals, even when the underlying crop has already been harvested.
The reports have contributed to the latest short-covering activity in cocoa futures and will remain an important factor for traders next week.
Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Fall Sharply
Government data showed that farmers delivered 55,317 tonnes of cocoa to Ivory Coast ports during the week ended November 8, compared with 107,139 tonnes in the same week last year.
This represents a substantial year-on-year decline.
For the marketing season to date, from October 1 through November 8, port arrivals reached 228,475 tonnes, down 45% from 411,979 tonnes during the comparable period a year earlier.
The previous 2025/26 marketing year had recorded a 20% increase in Ivory Coast port arrivals, making the latest decline particularly significant.
The figures provide an important indication of the weaker arrival pace, although traders should also account for the change in Ivory Coast’s marketing calendar. The country moved the start of its 2026/27 marketing year forward by one month to September 1, while Bloomberg continues to report arrivals using the international cocoa marketing year.
El Niño Raises Medium-Term Production Concerns
Weather remains one of the most important influences on the longer-term cocoa outlook.
The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern which emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years.
El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to West Africa. Reduced soil moisture can stress cocoa trees and negatively affect yields, creating potential production risks for Ivory Coast and Ghana.
The threat of a strong El Niño is therefore providing underlying support to cocoa prices, particularly as early crop assessments already indicate concerns about pod development and crop quality.
ICE Cocoa Inventories Reach a 2.5-Year High
Despite the recent recovery, rising exchange inventories remain a significant bearish influence.
ICE cocoa inventories have increased steadily since the beginning of the year, reaching 3,784,710 bags on Friday, their highest level in 2.5 years.
The increase has helped ease immediate supply concerns and contributed to the decline in cocoa prices over the past month.
The inventory trend will be closely watched next week. Further increases could limit the potential for a sustained recovery, particularly if port arrivals improve or weather disruptions prove temporary.
Index Rebalancing Creates Additional Selling Pressure
Another concern for cocoa futures is the planned reduction in cocoa exposure by major commodity indices in 2027.
The S&P GSCI Index intends to reduce its cocoa weighting by more than half to 0.5%, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index has also announced a reduction in cocoa holdings for the coming year.
These changes have encouraged some investors to sell ahead of the formal rebalancing in early 2027, as index funds are expected to reduce their cocoa exposure.
The anticipated selling represents an additional source of market pressure, separate from the underlying physical supply-and-demand balance.
Nigeria Cocoa Exports Increase
Nigeria has also provided a bearish supply signal.
September cocoa-bean exports increased 33% year-on-year to 19,343 tonnes, with higher cocoa prices reportedly encouraging exporters to sell.
Nigeria is the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, and increased export availability adds another consideration for traders assessing West African supply.
StoneX Forecasts 2026/27 Global Cocoa Deficit
Despite the recent inventory build-up, StoneX has adopted a more bullish outlook for the 2026/27 season.
On October 29, the group forecast a global cocoa deficit of 64,000 tonnes, reversing its previous expectation of a 25,000-tonne surplus.
The revised outlook follows its estimate of a 494,000-tonne surplus in 2025/26.
StoneX expects global cocoa production to decline by 9.6% year-on-year to 4.74 million tonnes in 2026/27, with lower output in Indonesia, Ivory Coast and Ecuador contributing to the reduction.
The forecast highlights the potential for the market to move from a substantial surplus into deficit as production risks increase.
Ivory Coast Crop Assessments Point to a Weaker Main Harvest
Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop have identified below-average cherelle formation, indicating a potentially weaker outlook for the main harvest, which began this month.
Initial crop assessments point to poor pod development, with the season’s production estimated at approximately 1.8 million tonnes, down 18% from around 2.2 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in Ivory Coast and Ghana have also contributed to concerns about crop quality. These conditions have allowed black pod disease to spread, potentially reducing the quality of cocoa beans.
If the early assessments prove accurate, lower West African production could become a major source of support for prices over the coming months.
Ghana Production Forecasts Point to Further Declines
Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is also facing a challenging production outlook.
On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimated that the 2026/27 crop could reach 650,000 tonnes, down from 750,000 tonnes in 2025/26.
Separately, COCOBOD projected on July 30 that production could fall further, to between 450,000 and 550,000 tonnes, citing swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and potential adverse weather linked to El Niño.
These forecasts highlight the scale of uncertainty surrounding Ghana’s next crop.
However, the current marketing year has been stronger. Ghana’s cocoa board reported on August 26 that 750,000 tonnes had been harvested for 2025/26, representing a 25.6% increase from 597,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
Cocoa Demand: Regional Grinding Figures Diverge
Demand indicators remain mixed across the major consuming regions.
The National Confectioners Association reported that Q3 North American cocoa grindings fell 2.5% year-on-year to 109,978 tonnes, unexpectedly weaker than forecasts for no change.
In contrast, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported record Q3 Asian cocoa grindings of 233,767 tonnes, an increase of 29% year-on-year and significantly above expectations of 15%.
European cocoa grindings also surprised to the upside, rising 3.2% to 348,215 tonnes, compared with expectations for a 3.9% decline.
The contrasting figures suggest that demand conditions differ considerably between regions. Stronger Asian and European processing activity provides support, while weaker North American grindings remain a concern.
Bullish Sentiment
- Three consecutive sessions of gains: New York and London cocoa both extended their recovery on Friday.
- Lower Ivory Coast arrivals: Season-to-date port arrivals declined 45% year-on-year to 228,475 tonnes.
- Heavy rainfall disruption: Damaged roads and delayed transportation are restricting the movement of cocoa towards collection centres.
- El Niño threat: Potentially severe weather conditions could reduce yields across West Africa and other producing regions.
- Weaker crop assessments: Early Ivory Coast surveys point to poor pod development and a possible 18% production decline.
- StoneX deficit forecast: The group expects a 64,000-tonne global deficit in 2026/27.
- Stronger Asian and European grindings: Q3 processing increased 29% in Asia and 3.2% in Europe.
Bearish Sentiment
- Rising ICE inventories: Stocks reached a 2.5-year high of 3,784,710 bags on Friday.
- Index-fund selling: Planned reductions in S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index cocoa weightings could generate additional selling ahead of 2027 rebalancing.
- Higher Nigerian exports: September cocoa exports increased 33% year-on-year to 19,343 tonnes.
- North American demand weakness: Q3 grindings declined 2.5% year-on-year.
- Previous season’s surplus: StoneX estimated a substantial 494,000-tonne global surplus in 2025/26.
Cocoa Price Forecast – What Traders Are Watching Next Week
Cocoa enters the new week with improving short-term momentum, but the broader market remains caught between rising inventories and concerns about future production.
The most important developments to monitor include:
- Ivory Coast port arrivals: Whether weekly deliveries remain significantly below last year’s levels.
- Rainfall and transport conditions: Whether heavy rain continues to disrupt roads, collection centres and cocoa shipments.
- ICE inventories: Whether stocks continue climbing towards higher levels or begin to stabilise.
- El Niño forecasts: Any further indications of the strength and potential impact of the developing weather pattern.
- West African crop assessments: Whether early concerns about cherelle formation, pod development and black pod disease are confirmed.
- Index rebalancing: Whether investors continue positioning ahead of the planned reductions in cocoa index weightings.
- Regional grinding data: Whether stronger Asian and European demand can offset weaker North American processing.
Supply Outlook
The immediate supply picture remains mixed. Ivory Coast arrivals have fallen sharply, while heavy rainfall is disrupting transportation and early crop assessments point to weaker production prospects.
At the same time, ICE inventories continue to increase, and Nigerian exports have risen. These factors demonstrate why the market has struggled to establish a consistent direction.
Looking further ahead, El Niño represents a substantial production risk. StoneX’s forecast of a 64,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27 reflects growing concern that lower output in key producing countries could tighten the global balance.
Demand Outlook
Cocoa demand remains uneven. North American grindings declined during Q3, while Asia and Europe recorded stronger-than-expected processing activity.
The Asian increase was particularly significant, with grindings rising 29% year-on-year to a record 233,767 tonnes.
The regional divergence will remain important as traders assess whether consumption can provide sufficient support to offset inventory growth and potential supply losses.
Cocoa Market Outlook for the Week Ahead
Cocoa futures finished Friday higher for a third consecutive session, with New York December cocoa gaining 1.05% and London December cocoa advancing 1.15%.
The recovery has been supported by heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast, disrupted transportation and a substantial decline in port arrivals. These developments have encouraged short covering following the market’s recent 4.5-month low.
However, the rally faces important obstacles. ICE inventories are at a 2.5-year high, Nigerian exports have increased, and planned reductions in major commodity index weightings could create additional selling pressure ahead of 2027.
The longer-term outlook is more supportive. El Niño threatens production across West Africa, early Ivory Coast crop assessments are concerning, and StoneX expects the global market to move into deficit during 2026/27.
For next week, the key question is whether the improvement in physical supply concerns can overcome the pressure from rising exchange inventories and anticipated index selling. Continued weakness in Ivory Coast arrivals and further evidence of crop deterioration could extend the recovery. Conversely, if inventories continue increasing and shipments improve, cocoa may struggle to sustain its latest gains.
The market is therefore entering the week with improving short-term momentum but considerable uncertainty over the balance between current availability and future production.
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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Commodity prices are subject to volatility, and readers should conduct their own research before making trading or investment decisions.
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