• USD/JPY is edging lower on Friday and set for a weekly loss, holding just above key medium-term support.
• Firm Japanese inflation and stronger August business surveys have pushed Bank of Japan September-hike odds to around 80%, supporting the Yen.
• Next week’s Jackson Hole debut from Warshand the Bank of Japan decision are the range-breakers.

The US Dollar (USD) is muted against the Japanese Yen (JPY). USD/JPY traded in the low 159.00s at the time of writing on Friday.

In Japan, July inflation accelerated with headline consumer prices rising 1.9% from a year earlier and core measures firming, while August business surveys came in stronger than expected. Together they have hardened expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates at its September meeting, with swaps now pricing roughly an 80% chance of a move. That conviction is doing the heavy lifting for the Yen.

A resilient United States (US) economy is pulling the other way. The flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys released on Friday showed private sector activity accelerating. The Composite index jumped to 56 from 54.5 on a strong Services reading, though Manufacturing slipped and missed forecasts. Firm data of that kind supports the higher-for-longer view for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and puts a floor under the Dollar, even as the Greenback heads for a weekly loss.

The US Treasury said it would at least double its buybacks of longer-dated debt to ease strains in the bond market and cap yields, and Washington’s pivot toward economic sanctions on Iran, rather than further military strikes, has improved risk appetite. That last point cuts against the Yen since a brighter risk mood usually weighs on the safe-haven currency, but BoJ-hike conviction and softer US yields have been enough to offset it.

The range is unlikely to give until the calendar forces it. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his Jackson Hole debut next Friday, and the Bank of Japan decides on September 18. Until then, a soft Dollar and a firm case for BoJ tightening leave risk tilted gently to the downside, with the 200-day average as the key level.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.02, holding a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.81 and the 20-period SMA at 158.91. The clustering of these SMAs just below price suggests a supportive backdrop, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 points to neutral momentum, hinting at consolidation rather than aggressive trend extension in the immediate term.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the horizontal barrier at 159.04, followed closely by the next cap at 159.13, forming a tight ceiling that bulls need to clear to unlock further gains. On the downside, immediate support is found near the current trading area, with the 20-period SMA at 158.91 and the horizontal level at 158.87 forming a first demand zone, ahead of the 100-period SMA at 158.81 and a deeper floor at 158.63, which should limit pullbacks while the broader constructive tone persists.