• WTI advances as direct strikes on tankers and naval warships trigger heightened fears of long-term energy supply disruptions.
• Tehran established new restricted transit zones, countering US naval blockade operations designed to safeguard shipping.
• Kpler data reveals Hormuz tanker traffic dropped to 10 vessels daily, confirming real physical market constraints.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gains ground after registering losses in the previous trading day, hovering around $90.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday. Crude oil prices climb following a fresh escalation of military strikes between the United States (US) and Iran, raising widespread fears of prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies.

The conflict intensified over the weekend when the US targeted three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks against US Navy warships. Tehran responded by declaring a new restricted zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz, stretching across part of the Persian Gulf and encompassing the US Navy’s blockade line.

Despite the heightened tensions, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that the American military will maintain its naval footprint in the region. This strategy aims to enforce the blockade against Iranian oil exports while securing safe passage for commercial shipping through the Strait.

However, market data highlights a growing divergence between official accounts and commercial reality. Tracking from Kpler reveals that shipping traffic through Hormuz has plummeted to a multi-month low of just 10 vessels per day, directly contrasting US Navy statements about increased escort operations. This gap underscores tangible physical supply constraints in the transit route, keeping the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in global oil prices.

Brent outlook clouded as Strait of Hormuz flows remain in doubt

Analysts at Commerzbank stress that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz “remains unclear in many respects,” noting in particular “conflicting reports regarding how much oil is currently flowing through the strait each day.” They add that upcoming “market reports from energy agencies and China’s trade balance figures this week promise to provide some clarity,” with the data expected to shed light on both actual crude flows and underlying demand conditions.