- AUD/USD is seen consolidating at the start of a new week amid a combination of diverging forces.
- Hawkish RBA expectations support the AUD, while Fed hike bets and Iran risks underpin the USD.
- The bullish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
The AUD/USD pair holds steady around the 0.7200 mark at the start of a new week and remains close to its highest level since mid-May, touched on Friday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be underpinned by rising bets for a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in September, bolstered by stronger-than-expected economic growth and persistent domestic inflation. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)-led gains as traders opt to wait for the release of the US inflation figures later this week. However, escalating US-Iran tensions act as a tailwind for the Greenback, capping the upside for the AUD/USD pair.
Spot prices have now found acceptance above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. This comes on top of the recent strong move up from the vicinity of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair remains to the upside. Moreover, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 66 and a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest buyers retain control, though conditions are edging toward overbought.
Meanwhile, a multi-year peak, at 0.7272, is the next notable resistance, and a daily close above this hurdle would open the way for further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 0.7186, which, if broken, would signal fading upside momentum. The AUD/USD pair might then decline to the 61.8% level at 0.7118 and the 50% retracement near 0.7070, with deeper cushions at 0.7023 and the rising 200-day SMA at 0.6989.
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