October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.30 (+1.66%) on Wednesday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +15.50 (+2.99%).

Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Wednesday on the +3% surge in crude price (CLV26) to a 3.25-month high.  Higher crude prices support ethanol prices and could prompt the world’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, reducing sugar supplies.

Sugar prices also have some positive carryover from Monday, when the Thai Sugar Millers Corp projected that 2026/27 Thailand sugar production could fall -17% y/y to 10 MMT.

Thailand is the world’s second-largest sugar exporter. 

Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past week amid speculation that India will import less sugar than initially expected.  The Indian government last week reduced the sugar dealer stock-holding limit to 200 MT from 400 MT, effective Sep 15 through Nov 20, to curb hoarding and boost domestic availability.  The action will help push more sugar stockpiles onto the market, potentially reducing India’s need to import sugar.     

An excessively long position by funds in NY sugar could exacerbate any price downturn.  Last Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that funds boosted their long NY sugar positions by 28,526 to a net-long 132,496 positions in the week ended September 1, the highest in three years. 

Last Wednesday, NY sugar posted a 17-month high, and London sugar posted a 2-week high on the outlook for a global deficit.  Last Tuesday, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT after a projected +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26. 

Green Pool Commodity Specialists on August 27 projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  Also, the European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said August 27 that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT.

On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war.

India’s Meteorological Department reported Monday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 14% below normal as of September 7, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world’s second-largest sugar-producing country. 

On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season.

Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand.

Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world’s largest sugar-producing country.

Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. 

On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25. 

For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT.

The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.